The Not Too Early 2016 Draft Thread

DonkeyKilla said:
I went to a few games when we had Campbell on the roster. Dude stood out-- looked like a silver back gorilla compared to the rest of the players. Guess he just wasn't a football player though.
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Dats racist
 
Sleet said:
@Raidervinny

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fo-espn-feature-columns/2016/sackseer-2016-espn-insider-version
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Projecting top edge-rushing prospects in 2016 NFL draft

With the 2016 NFL draft quickly approaching, it is time for Football Outsiders' annual SackSEER projections. The SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that best predict the pass-rushing success of edge rushers: 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers.

SackSEER -- which is based on a statistical analysis of all of edge rushers drafted from 1998-2013 -- has predicted success for current stars Von Miller,Khalil Mack and Justin Houston, while also identifying several high-profile busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith andJarvis Jones. SackSEER had its fair share of misses as well, but it nevertheless provides a good starting point for discussing the likelihood that an edge-rusher prospect will collect high numbers of sacks at the NFL level.

SackSEER projects the number of regular-season sacks the edge rusher will record over the course of his first five NFL seasons. This year's crop of pass rushers at the top of the draft project to be mostly mediocre, at least compared to their highly-drafted brethren in past drafts. However, this draft does include a smattering of underrated edge rushers who might still be available in the second, third and fourth rounds.

Here are our full projections (and yes, our two top prospects both ended up with the same sack figures). For more details on what exactly goes into the SackSEER formula, check out the full explanation at the bottom

1. Joey Bosa, Ohio State

Projection: 26.8 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 1 overall
Similar historical prospects: Justin Smith, Melvin Ingram

SackSEER expects Bosa to have a strong NFL career, but the system feels he is somewhat overrated as a possible No. 1 overall selection. With 26 sacks in three years, Bosa had good production at Ohio State. Although Bosa's sack total dropped off in his junior season, it's not uncommon for a strong edge-rusher prospect to record fewer sacks after a successful year, due to increased double-teams. Bosa also had an impressive 6.89-second 3-cone time, which is second best among all of the edge rushers at this year's NFL combine.

However, Bosa's explosion numbers were a little below average: He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.86 seconds, had a vertical jump of 33 inches, and had a 10-foot broad jump. Edge rushers with those types of explosion numbers certainly have been successful before, but none have ever been drafted in the top five.

For example, the slowest edge rusher drafted in the top five since 1998 wasChris Long, who ran a 4.75 40-yard dash, which is 0.1 seconds faster than Bosa's. Additionally, Bosa's passes defensed rate is firmly average for a drafted edge rusher; he is a far cry from players such as Julius Peppers or Ziggy Ansah, who were as good at knocking down passes as they were knocking down quarterbacks. Overall, SackSEER projects Bosa to be a solid, but not spectacular player.

2. Leonard Floyd, Georgia

Projection: 26.8 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 19 overall
Similar historical prospects: Brian Orakpo, Barkevious Mingo

Floyd's explosion numbers were fantastic. He recorded a 4.60-second 40-yard dash, a 39-inch vertical leap and a broad jump of 10 feet, 7 inches -- numbers that place him among the top 20 most explosive edge-rusher prospects of all time. His college production, however, left something to be desired, as Floyd never had more than 6.5 sacks in a season for the Georgia Bulldogs. Moreover, Floyd had no interceptions and only four pass breakups, which leaves him with a below-average passes defensed rate for a drafted edge-rusher prospect.

It would be easy to label Floyd as a "workout warrior" and dismiss his prospects. However, the actual history of such players reveals a more nuanced picture. It is true that many edge-rusher prospects who excelled at the combine after mediocre college production have become busts. Barkevious Mingo is a recent example of a player who looked like Jevon Kearse at the combine, but whose NFL career ultimately lacked sizzle. However, there are also counterexamples of edge rushers with good combines and thin college résumés who nevertheless found NFL success, such as Trent Cole, Mark Anderson andMichael Johnson. It all adds up to Floyd being a boom-or-bust prospect who is essentially a coin flip.
 
3. Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State

Projection: 22.9 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 45 overall
Similar historical prospects: Adalius Thomas, Justin Houston

Ogbah is a good all-around prospect, and he would be SackSEER's favorite player in this draft if it did not adjust for projected draft position. Ogbah had consistently good production, recording double-digit sacks as both a sophomore and a junior. He also added nine passes defensed in his three-year college career, giving him an above-average passes defensed rate.

Ogbah's explosion numbers were also good -- he recorded a 4.63-second 40-yard dash, a 35.5-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump. Although not part of the SackSEER projection, Ogbah has nice size at 273 pounds, suggesting that he could be effective against the run and the pass. The only knock on Ogbah is his 3-cone time, which is just a bit slower than average.

4. Shaq Lawson, Clemson

Projection: 22.9 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 16 overall
Similar historical prospects: Whitney Mercilus, Jamaal Anderson

Lawson was one of the top defenders on the No. 2-ranked team in the country. However, SackSEER is only lukewarm on his prospects. Lawson is a bit of a one-hit wonder: He had 12.5 sacks in 15 games as a junior, but had only 7.5 sacks in his first two seasons. Lawson also had only one pass defensed over the course of his career, which is a major red flag. Lawson did have a solid combine workout, however, which included a nice 10-foot broad jump.

5. Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky

Projection: 20.8 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 29 overall
Similar historical prospects: Derrick Morgan, Bjoern Werner

Despite hailing from a much smaller school, Spence is viewed as a similar prospect to Lawson. Spence is a bit slower than Lawson and approximately 15 pounds lighter, but he bested Lawson in the vertical leap and the broad jump at the combine.

Spence's sack production was also a little better -- Spence and Lawson each finished with 20 career sacks, but Spence collected his 20 sacks in six fewer games. (For those wondering, SackSEER does not adjust for Spence's strength of competition because SackSEER already considers pre-draft rankings from draft analysts. Those rankings will already factor in the prospect's small-school status.)

6. Kamalei Correa, Boise State

Projection: 17.5 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 31 overall
Similar historical prospects: Victor Butler, Nick Reed

SackSEER does not like Correa. First, Correa had a poor passes defensed rate, recording only two passes defensed in 39 games. Second, Correa's combine was uneven. Correa recorded a slightly above-average 4.69-second 40-yard dash, but a below-average 33-inch vertical jump and a fairly poor broad jump of just 9 feet.

This performance is concerning especially because Correa is small for the position at 243 pounds. Correa's projection might go up after his pro day -- he did not run the 3-cone drill at the combine -- but based on what SackSEER has seen so far, Correa does not offer good value at the price of a low first-round or high second-round selection.
 
7. Bronson Kaufusi, BYU

Projection: 14.9 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 94 overall
Similar historical prospects: Charles Grant, Devin Taylor

SackSEER projects Kaufusi to outproduce his draft position, but he might not be everyone's cup of tea as a prospect. The primary driver of Kaufusi's relatively high SackSEER projection is his passes defensed total. Kaufusi finished with two interceptions and 14 pass breakups, which translates into a pass defensed every three games -- an impressive rate for a 280-pound defensive lineman. Kaufusi is also quick, demonstrated by his combine 3-cone drill time of 7.03 seconds.

SackSEER does have one big knock on Kaufusi: He performed poorly on the explosion metrics. Kufusi's 40-yard dash, vertical leap and broad jump were all well below average. That said, a team could do a lot worse with a late third-round pick than picking up a big, productive defensive end with a talent for knocking down passes.

8. James Cowser, Southern Utah

Projection: 14.7 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 135 overall
Similar historical prospects: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Andy Studebaker

One of SackSEER's lessons is that small-school players are often severely underrated. Players such as Jared Allen and Robert Mathis dropped to the second half of the draft despite dominant college careers, largely due to concerns regarding the strength of their competition. In the 2016 draft, the most likely edge rusher to enter the ranks of small-school prospect-turned-star is Cowser.

Cowser was dominant for Southern Utah. He made an immediate impact for the Thunderbirds, recording 7.5 sacks in 11 games as a freshman, and after that recorded double-digit sacks in three consecutive years. Cowser's explosion index is on the low side, but he had the quickest 3-cone time of any edge rusher invited to the combine. Projected draft position suggests that it is still unlikely that Cowser will have an impact in the NFL. However, he has considerably more upside than any other edge rusher who is likely to be available after the third round.

9. Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State

Projection: 13.7 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 78 overall
Similar historical prospects: Shea McClellin, Baraka Atkins

Calhoun is almost a perfectly average prospect. His explosion numbers, sacks per game and passes defensed rate are nearly average for a drafted edge rusher. Indeed, if you do not adjust for draft position, Calhoun is a better prospect than exactly 50.8 percent of edge rusher prospects in the past.

10. Jordan Jenkins, Georgia

Projection: 13.6 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 65 overall
Similar historical prospects: Chris Kelsay, Casey Tisdale

Jenkins is essentially the same mixed bag as his college teammate Leonard Floyd, except he's inferior in every one of SackSEER's metrics. Jenkins' combine was good, but it was not as good as Floyd's. Jenkins scored lower numbers on the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap, broad jump and the 3-cone drill.


Floyd did not have especially high levels of college production, but he still bested Jenkins. During his four-year career, Jenkins never recorded more than five sacks, despite having the advantage of opponents scheming against the more talented Floyd. Scouts seem to hold Jenkins in relatively high esteem, so it is possible that SackSEER is missing something about his talent that is apparent on tape, but it is equally possible that Jenkins is simply overrated. Consider the cautionary tale of John McCargo, the college linemate of Mario Williams, who went 26th overall to Buffalo in 2006 and never really developed in the NFL.
 
Cody Core - WR - Rebels
Ole Miss WR Cody Core is visiting the Raiders ahead of the draft, according to Tony Pauline.

On top of the visit, Core has worked out for the Cowboys and Patriots, with the Bucs still to come on his schedule. In many ways, Core was "the other" Ole Miss receiver the last few seasons, but he will likely be drafted in the later rounds. He looked the part during East West Shrine week.
 
Raidervinny said:
3. Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State

Projection: 22.9 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 45 overall
Similar historical prospects: Adalius Thomas, Justin Houston

Ogbah is a good all-around prospect, and he would be SackSEER's favorite player in this draft if it did not adjust for projected draft position. Ogbah had consistently good production, recording double-digit sacks as both a sophomore and a junior. He also added nine passes defensed in his three-year college career, giving him an above-average passes defensed rate.

Ogbah's explosion numbers were also good -- he recorded a 4.63-second 40-yard dash, a 35.5-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump. Although not part of the SackSEER projection, Ogbah has nice size at 273 pounds, suggesting that he could be effective against the run and the pass. The only knock on Ogbah is his 3-cone time, which is just a bit slower than average.

4. Shaq Lawson, Clemson

Projection: 22.9 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 16 overall
Similar historical prospects: Whitney Mercilus, Jamaal Anderson

Lawson was one of the top defenders on the No. 2-ranked team in the country. However, SackSEER is only lukewarm on his prospects. Lawson is a bit of a one-hit wonder: He had 12.5 sacks in 15 games as a junior, but had only 7.5 sacks in his first two seasons. Lawson also had only one pass defensed over the course of his career, which is a major red flag. Lawson did have a solid combine workout, however, which included a nice 10-foot broad jump.

5. Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky

Projection: 20.8 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 29 overall
Similar historical prospects: Derrick Morgan, Bjoern Werner

Despite hailing from a much smaller school, Spence is viewed as a similar prospect to Lawson. Spence is a bit slower than Lawson and approximately 15 pounds lighter, but he bested Lawson in the vertical leap and the broad jump at the combine.

Spence's sack production was also a little better -- Spence and Lawson each finished with 20 career sacks, but Spence collected his 20 sacks in six fewer games. (For those wondering, SackSEER does not adjust for Spence's strength of competition because SackSEER already considers pre-draft rankings from draft analysts. Those rankings will already factor in the prospect's small-school status.)

6. Kamalei Correa, Boise State

Projection: 17.5 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc.: No. 31 overall
Similar historical prospects: Victor Butler, Nick Reed

SackSEER does not like Correa. First, Correa had a poor passes defensed rate, recording only two passes defensed in 39 games. Second, Correa's combine was uneven. Correa recorded a slightly above-average 4.69-second 40-yard dash, but a below-average 33-inch vertical jump and a fairly poor broad jump of just 9 feet.

This performance is concerning especially because Correa is small for the position at 243 pounds. Correa's projection might go up after his pro day -- he did not run the 3-cone drill at the combine -- but based on what SackSEER has seen so far, Correa does not offer good value at the price of a low first-round or high second-round selection.
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My pro-Lawson stance not getting much love. :(
 
Good article on this DL from Illinois and his fight to the D-1 football. He's eligible for the draft. Link and excerpt below

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/03/29/jihad-ward-nfl-draft-illinois

IlIllinois was thin on the defensive line, and co-defensive coordinator Tim Banks says the staff did all they could to get Ward ready to play early that season. “I think we knew after the first practice,” Banks says. “This kid was freakish, in terms of his movements. And he went hard.” By the fourth game of the season, an injury made Ward one of the Illini’s starting defensive ends.

He remained there all year, earning Honorable Mention All-Big Ten along the way, but when new defensive line coach Mike Phair arrived the following spring, he quickly developed grander plans. Like many who’d only seen him on film, Phair was jarred by Ward’s size in person.

He saw a player that even at 6-foot-5 had the flexibility to maintain pad level and keep leverage. Throughout the spring, he experimented with Ward inside, where the quickness and length that allowed him to survive on the edge became an even more significant advantage against interior offensive linemen. “He’s dangerous there,” Phair says. “I thought he could really cause some problems for an offense. And I thought he did a really good job learning how to play those spots inside.” A bump to tackle was just another course in Ward’s rapid defensive line education. Those practices would be his only spring football experience in major college football, and that lack of background is what has teams intrigue about his room for growth. “I’m just now learning techniques and schemes,” Ward says. “Getting off the ball, getting vertical, those types of things.”


By the time Illinois played Iowa in its sixth game of the season, Ward was playing a considerable portion of his snaps at defensive tackle, and that week is when Phair saw it all coalesce. Ward finished that game with 11 tackles, including nine solo. In years past, players that appeared to fall between the cracks of positional designations were downgraded for it. Now, with stars like Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Jurrell Casey blurring lines and erasing ballcarriers, versatility is en vogue. Phair spent five years as an NFL defensive line coach before arriving in Champaign, and when looks at Ward, he sees an instant pro. “It won’t surprise me when he plays right away for whoever drafts him,” Phair says.linois was thin on the defensive line, and co-defensive coordinator Tim Banks says the staff did all they could to get Ward ready to play early that season. “I think we knew after the first practice,” Banks says. “This kid was freakish, in terms of his movements. And he went hard.” By the fourth game of the season, an injury made Ward one of the Illini’s starting defensive ends.

He remained there all year, earning Honorable Mention All-Big Ten along the way, but when new defensive line coach Mike Phair arrived the following spring, he quickly developed grander plans. Like many who’d only seen him on film, Phair was jarred by Ward’s size in person.

He saw a player that even at 6-foot-5 had the flexibility to maintain pad level and keep leverage. Throughout the spring, he experimented with Ward inside, where the quickness and length that allowed him to survive on the edge became an even more significant advantage against interior offensive linemen. “He’s dangerous there,” Phair says. “I thought he could really cause some problems for an offense. And I thought he did a really good job learning how to play those spots inside.” A bump to tackle was just another course in Ward’s rapid defensive line education. Those practices would be his only spring football experience in major college football, and that lack of background is what has teams intrigue about his room for growth. “I’m just now learning techniques and schemes,” Ward says. “Getting off the ball, getting vertical, those types of things.”


By the time Illinois played Iowa in its sixth game of the season, Ward was playing a considerable portion of his snaps at defensive tackle, and that week is when Phair saw it all coalesce. Ward finished that game with 11 tackles, including nine solo. In years past, players that appeared to fall between the cracks of positional designations were downgraded for it. Now, with stars like Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Jurrell Casey blurring lines and erasing ballcarriers, versatility is en vogue. Phair spent five years as an NFL defensive line coach before arriving in Champaign, and when looks at Ward, he sees an instant pro. “It won’t surprise me when he plays right away for whoever drafts him,” Phair says.
 
Fail moment of the month for myself. Got 80% through the 6th paragraph before I realized I had already read that part...
 
Damn Su'a Cravens turned down a private workout with us. Wow. Who does that ?
 
Lots and lots and lots of Reggie Ragland at 14 Mocks.......Does anyone here like this guy ? The consensus I've pretty much read here none of you are high on him.
 
Armyr8rfan said:
Damn Su'a Cravens turned down a private workout with us. Wow. Who does that ?
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Apparently agent's putting out the word it was not just us. Supposedly trying to protect client from injury/over-exposure.
 
Armyr8rfan said:
Lots and lots and lots of Reggie Ragland at 14 Mocks.......Does anyone here like this guy ? The consensus I've pretty much read here none of you are high on him.
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Don't think we are going down that road again. Another over hyped Bama player who is going to go a lot higher than he should.
 
Armyr8rfan said:
Damn Su'a Cravens turned down a private workout with us. Wow. Who does that ?
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Especially a guy with position fit issues. Seems like he's hiding something (that he doesn't have a position and is not that athletic, perhaps).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/03/28/draft-pff-scouting-report-sua-cravens-olb-usc/

Turns out he's still visiting Raiders; just not working out.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/03/30/sua-cravens-has-several-pre-draft-visits-booked/
 
“I just think I bring versatility to the next level,” he said at the combine. “I know the role of being a big safety is beginning to change. I think before it was kind of frowned upon. But now that guy that can run with slots and guard tight ends in man and then come into the box and be that extra linebacker without having to sub, it’s pretty big nowadays. With the league becoming a passing league you’re going to need guys like that, so I think now, I’m at an advantage more than a disadvantage.”

#interested just not at 14
 
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