I like how we used different words to describe the same thing: organize versus manipulates; interpret versus reports.
In the spectrum of subjectiveness and arbitrariness, FO’s DYAR formula registers to you, not me. Do you consider QB Rating arbitrary and subjective too? What good is raw data if not crunched?
And, to me, the crunching of data to organize and report useful information is the very point of collecting raw data. The raw data reported by BSPN has no or far less value (IMO).
But let’s put aside DYAR for a second. You do acknowledge that ALEX is not manipulating or interpreting anything, right? ALEX just organizes raw data around down and distance and reports the raw data.
FO’s failed completions stat does the same thing with one difference: instead of down and distance to a first, it used DYAR on 1st and 2nd down to identify a different measure on those downs. Third down is the same for both stats.
You suggest that it is “arbitrary” to draw a line on a descending list of values in FO’s DYAR database for plays on 1st and 2nd down short of 1st down yardage. But is it?
If we saw the list, it might be obvious where to draw the line. For example, there might be a big drop off after 4.5 yards based on historical success rates to obtain a 1st down, which FO has factored into its DYAR formula and list. Or, below 4.5 yards the DYAR drops below what history has shown will successfully pick up a first, and thus the play is counted as a win for the D.
I assume it is one of these two things. But perhaps not. Perhaps there is no meaningful difference between 4.5 and 4 yards on 1st down, and FO arbitrarily drew a line and made a subjective judgment call as you claim.
Do you see a difference? I do.
