massraider
Usually Right
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2006
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And the last. This sucked.
My approach with this was to take the seat of the front office, rather than just plug in players to need. Teams have a philosophy, some teams ignore character concerns more than others, and some teams have tendencies. There's also historic trends, DL get reached for, interior linemen drop, and WRs can fall too. Certain players fell out of my 1st round, not through any intention on my part. Robert Ayers, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Clint Sintim, Larry English.
There's also one or two players that teams cannot pass on, a BPA that they cannot ignore. There's a few of those as well. Like Wells to Denver. Or Jenkins to Nawlins. Take a look, and be brutal with your critique, I'll be happy to explain why you are wrong.
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB. There's too many reasons this makes sense. The other options are Aaron Curry, and the tackles. Lions have Julian Peterson and Ernie Sims, and you don't take an OLB at #1 and move him to MLB. None of these tackles are Jake Long or Joe Thomas, and with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus, the Lions can hold off. The new regime has no pressure to win right away, so they take the QBOTF, and throw Culpepper to the wolves for one more year. (Also consider: Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe)
2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, OT. Really, the first unknown. I am actually surprised that Sanchez isn't getting more play here. The loss of Pace, and continued struggles of Barron make OT an easy call. Comes down to Jason Smith and Monroe, and I think the NFL production of D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert, and the weird offense at Baylor tilt the needle to Monroe. (Also consider: Jason Smith, Aaron Curry).
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, OLB. Scott Pioli is running the show, and he won't be taking any WRs here, not with this defense. There really isn't any spot the Chiefs can feel good about. The rookie CBs looked nice, but they need to be protected a bit, Flowers and Carr aren't man-to-man speedsters. Curry is actually custom-made for a Pats 3-4 scheme, with his versatility. Pioli will be looking for his Vince Wilfork, but I don't think Raji is that man. (Also consider: BJ Raji, Brian Orakpo).
4. Seattle Seahawks: Jason Smith, OT. I wouldn't be surprised to see this spot get some play in trade talk as we approach the draft. Sanchez isn't an option, I don't think GM Tim Ruskell likes a one-year wonder QB. His drafts are heavy on 3 and 4 year starters. And he might not have the job security to wait for Sanchez. Defensive line is the other obvious need, but might not be as pressing as OT. They've added Colin Cole and Cory Redding, along with Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant, DT is kinda crowded. DE is an issue, but I think the Hawks just cross their fingers that Lawrence Jackson develops, and Kerney stays healthy. No matter if Walter Jones recovers from microfracture or not, he's gonna be 35 this season. And if he can't come back, this offense is in serious trouble. If any top 5 pick gets traded, this'll be the one, IMO. (Also consider: Brian Orakpo, Mark Sanchez).
5. Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB. Yeah, WR is a need. And it'll be even more of a need when Braylon gets traded. But this team has drafted one pass rusher in the last 8 years. And that guy, Kamerion Wimbley hasn't done much. 17 sacks last year for this defense; the new braintrust, Kokinis and Mangini, will address that first. The 3-4 D that Mangini runs (pretty close to Crennel's) has no problem with bigger OLBs, McGinest, Calvin Pace, etc. Orakpo was a productive pass rusher ofr a big-time program, and has the size to play in this defense. I also wouldn't be shocked if a guy like Everette Brown shoots up in this spot. (Also consider: Michael Crabtree, Everette Brown).
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, OT. The Benglas back into a great pick, as Andre Smith's stupid offseason allow the Benglas to land a top 3 talent at #6. Stacey Andrews left, Levi Jones has missed time the last two seasons, and it is vital the Benglas keep Carson Palmer upright. You can go back and forth with Oher, but I can't really see the Benglas being scared by Smith's red flags, can you? WR and DT are the other options? Nah, I don't think so. Ocho Cinco, Coles, Simpson, Caldwell, and Henry? The Raiders should be so lucky. WR is a concer, the O-line is a house on fire. DT? Nope. Added Tank Johnson to Peko, Sims, Shirly, and Thorton. Bengals finished 12th in yards allowed last year, did you know that? DE is a bigger need than any other, IMO. I almost slotted Everette here, but I just can't see the Bengals passing on an opportunity to help the O-line. (Also consider: Everette Brown, Michael Oher).
7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR. If it falls this way, I doubt there'll be much discussion. I think Al thinks scoring points is more important right now than stopping the run. Crabtree is a blue-chipper, and ranks with the top WR prospects in the last 10 years. Played QB in high school, red-shirted a year, then simply dominiated for two years. (Also consider: BJ Raji, Michael Oher, Jeremy Maclin)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: BJ Raji, DT. This is another hot spot for a trade, IMO. The Jags have a new GM, Gene Smith, so there really isn't a history to look at. Smith has said the Jags will not draft for need, but go BPA. I think this is a case where a need coincides with the best player on the board. When the Jags D was solid, they had Stroud next to Henderson. I could see the Jags trading down for someone that wants Raji or Sanchez as well. I am sure GM Smith would love to recoup some of the picks from the Derrick Harvey trade. WR or OT seems more likely, I know. But I think Holt winds up on the Jags, and Tra Thomas makes OT a bit less of a need. I really think the Jags may trade down and wind up with Maclin. (Also consider: Jeremy Maclin, Michael Oher).
9. Green Bay Packers: Everette Brown, OLB/DE. The Pack gets the top pure pass rusher in the draft. I think this is a pretty easy pick to forecast. With the switch to the 3-4, an outside pass rusher is a crying need. Ted Thompson has a great track record, and I think he'll take the safest pick he can at this spot. That eliminates Maybin in my mind. Michael Oher is the other option, as both tackles for the Pack have questions. If Thomspon likes the 2nd round prospects at OT or OLB better, it may affect this pick. When in doubt, I think NFL teams go with pass rushers, and the Pack have no one on the roster that fits the 3-4 OLB mold. (Also consider: Brian Cushing, Michael Oher, Aaron Maybin)
10. San Francisco 49ers: Mark Sanchez, QB. Singletary cannot be happy with the QB situation. The 49ers get to make a bit of a splash, and have Hill and Smith to hold Sanchez's spot as he gets up to speed. The signing of Marvel Smith makes Oher unlikely, and while I think Mayb is a possiblity here, I think the 49ers know there will be better pass rushers than QBs available later. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Maclin here, but if Sanchez lasts this long, no way he drops any further. (Also consider: Maclin, Oher, Maybin)
My approach with this was to take the seat of the front office, rather than just plug in players to need. Teams have a philosophy, some teams ignore character concerns more than others, and some teams have tendencies. There's also historic trends, DL get reached for, interior linemen drop, and WRs can fall too. Certain players fell out of my 1st round, not through any intention on my part. Robert Ayers, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Clint Sintim, Larry English.
There's also one or two players that teams cannot pass on, a BPA that they cannot ignore. There's a few of those as well. Like Wells to Denver. Or Jenkins to Nawlins. Take a look, and be brutal with your critique, I'll be happy to explain why you are wrong.
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB. There's too many reasons this makes sense. The other options are Aaron Curry, and the tackles. Lions have Julian Peterson and Ernie Sims, and you don't take an OLB at #1 and move him to MLB. None of these tackles are Jake Long or Joe Thomas, and with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus, the Lions can hold off. The new regime has no pressure to win right away, so they take the QBOTF, and throw Culpepper to the wolves for one more year. (Also consider: Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe)
2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, OT. Really, the first unknown. I am actually surprised that Sanchez isn't getting more play here. The loss of Pace, and continued struggles of Barron make OT an easy call. Comes down to Jason Smith and Monroe, and I think the NFL production of D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert, and the weird offense at Baylor tilt the needle to Monroe. (Also consider: Jason Smith, Aaron Curry).
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, OLB. Scott Pioli is running the show, and he won't be taking any WRs here, not with this defense. There really isn't any spot the Chiefs can feel good about. The rookie CBs looked nice, but they need to be protected a bit, Flowers and Carr aren't man-to-man speedsters. Curry is actually custom-made for a Pats 3-4 scheme, with his versatility. Pioli will be looking for his Vince Wilfork, but I don't think Raji is that man. (Also consider: BJ Raji, Brian Orakpo).
4. Seattle Seahawks: Jason Smith, OT. I wouldn't be surprised to see this spot get some play in trade talk as we approach the draft. Sanchez isn't an option, I don't think GM Tim Ruskell likes a one-year wonder QB. His drafts are heavy on 3 and 4 year starters. And he might not have the job security to wait for Sanchez. Defensive line is the other obvious need, but might not be as pressing as OT. They've added Colin Cole and Cory Redding, along with Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant, DT is kinda crowded. DE is an issue, but I think the Hawks just cross their fingers that Lawrence Jackson develops, and Kerney stays healthy. No matter if Walter Jones recovers from microfracture or not, he's gonna be 35 this season. And if he can't come back, this offense is in serious trouble. If any top 5 pick gets traded, this'll be the one, IMO. (Also consider: Brian Orakpo, Mark Sanchez).
5. Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB. Yeah, WR is a need. And it'll be even more of a need when Braylon gets traded. But this team has drafted one pass rusher in the last 8 years. And that guy, Kamerion Wimbley hasn't done much. 17 sacks last year for this defense; the new braintrust, Kokinis and Mangini, will address that first. The 3-4 D that Mangini runs (pretty close to Crennel's) has no problem with bigger OLBs, McGinest, Calvin Pace, etc. Orakpo was a productive pass rusher ofr a big-time program, and has the size to play in this defense. I also wouldn't be shocked if a guy like Everette Brown shoots up in this spot. (Also consider: Michael Crabtree, Everette Brown).
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, OT. The Benglas back into a great pick, as Andre Smith's stupid offseason allow the Benglas to land a top 3 talent at #6. Stacey Andrews left, Levi Jones has missed time the last two seasons, and it is vital the Benglas keep Carson Palmer upright. You can go back and forth with Oher, but I can't really see the Benglas being scared by Smith's red flags, can you? WR and DT are the other options? Nah, I don't think so. Ocho Cinco, Coles, Simpson, Caldwell, and Henry? The Raiders should be so lucky. WR is a concer, the O-line is a house on fire. DT? Nope. Added Tank Johnson to Peko, Sims, Shirly, and Thorton. Bengals finished 12th in yards allowed last year, did you know that? DE is a bigger need than any other, IMO. I almost slotted Everette here, but I just can't see the Bengals passing on an opportunity to help the O-line. (Also consider: Everette Brown, Michael Oher).
7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR. If it falls this way, I doubt there'll be much discussion. I think Al thinks scoring points is more important right now than stopping the run. Crabtree is a blue-chipper, and ranks with the top WR prospects in the last 10 years. Played QB in high school, red-shirted a year, then simply dominiated for two years. (Also consider: BJ Raji, Michael Oher, Jeremy Maclin)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: BJ Raji, DT. This is another hot spot for a trade, IMO. The Jags have a new GM, Gene Smith, so there really isn't a history to look at. Smith has said the Jags will not draft for need, but go BPA. I think this is a case where a need coincides with the best player on the board. When the Jags D was solid, they had Stroud next to Henderson. I could see the Jags trading down for someone that wants Raji or Sanchez as well. I am sure GM Smith would love to recoup some of the picks from the Derrick Harvey trade. WR or OT seems more likely, I know. But I think Holt winds up on the Jags, and Tra Thomas makes OT a bit less of a need. I really think the Jags may trade down and wind up with Maclin. (Also consider: Jeremy Maclin, Michael Oher).
9. Green Bay Packers: Everette Brown, OLB/DE. The Pack gets the top pure pass rusher in the draft. I think this is a pretty easy pick to forecast. With the switch to the 3-4, an outside pass rusher is a crying need. Ted Thompson has a great track record, and I think he'll take the safest pick he can at this spot. That eliminates Maybin in my mind. Michael Oher is the other option, as both tackles for the Pack have questions. If Thomspon likes the 2nd round prospects at OT or OLB better, it may affect this pick. When in doubt, I think NFL teams go with pass rushers, and the Pack have no one on the roster that fits the 3-4 OLB mold. (Also consider: Brian Cushing, Michael Oher, Aaron Maybin)
10. San Francisco 49ers: Mark Sanchez, QB. Singletary cannot be happy with the QB situation. The 49ers get to make a bit of a splash, and have Hill and Smith to hold Sanchez's spot as he gets up to speed. The signing of Marvel Smith makes Oher unlikely, and while I think Mayb is a possiblity here, I think the 49ers know there will be better pass rushers than QBs available later. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Maclin here, but if Sanchez lasts this long, no way he drops any further. (Also consider: Maclin, Oher, Maybin)
I also have a hard time getting around giving players I like to teams I dislike...
