The Not Too Early 2020 Draft Thread

Its all so complicated hahaha.

"If I'm at 12 and we have all 3 there I'll wait!"

Just take the top rated guy baby!

#007style
 
Madturk said:
FWIW
Heard some rumors that Dolts are enamored with Love.
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We don't need you nosing around raining on our parade.

Damn... Mahomes, Lock, Love, Carr.

We are truly fucked for 10 years.
 
BigTron said:
I sure this has been mentioned before. But in mock drafts I've been passing the WR's if the big 3 are available at #12. Then one of the big 3 slide to #19 where I take them with major value.

If 1 or 2 of Juedy/Lamb/Ruggs goes before #12, I take one. Also to fuck the Broncos.



I guess my point is would passing all three at #12 LIKELY push one down to #19. The pre trade board looks set up for that IMO

Mayock also said he has lots of high grades and won't reach earlier for WR if other positions are comparable. He feels he can wait until round 3. Also if the Raiders dont take one early, thats one more guy who falls to round three. In a deep as draft 1 player difference could mean a ton.



TLDR: Pass WR at #12 if 3 are available. Select one if not. This is my stupid genius today haha
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Your big assumption in this is that Mayock considers all three of the top wrs to be somewhat interchangeable in terms of what he is looking for and are of essentially equal value. That he would be equally happy with whichever of the three would fall to him at 19. I think this a serious stretch from what we saw from Mayock last year... I think that while he might have all three graded similarly in terms of their prospect skill grade, I highly doubt that he has the three with a similar "character grade". He's going to want his first rounders to be those "foundation" type players and a large part of the decision will be based on who Mayock thinks "loves the game" and has the work ethic that he is looking for. We know the HWS, the SPARQ, the on-field performance, the stats, but can't say I've heard much about what makes these guys tick. Thought I saw a little bit of that alpha dog mentality out of Lamb at the Combine; if that's real it could be a huge tie-breaker.
 
You're right.

He probably has the wrong one rated higher. #CLELIN
 
I've flopped Herbert over Tua. Wouldn't take either at 12. Looking at WR/CB or WR/WR right now. It'd be really hard for me to say no to Jeudy/Jefferson.
 
BigTron said:
Ive had the gut feeling that the Raiders are going to be players for a QB in round 1. Mariota threw some cold water on that, but if the Raiders see potential in J.Love or a sliding Tua/Herbert.... I would be totally fine with them taking a shot.

Im more into next years QB's but if they like J.Love he does provide what Carr doesn't, playmaking when shit break down. AKA the modern NFL QB - Jackson, Wilson, Maholmes, Murray, Allen etc


We need a dude who can make plays inside the offense and ALSO OUTSIDE IT when shit goes bad. Carr is awful after the play breaks down. His biggest flaw IMO. And I consider him slightly above average and could win a SB with a great team. I just dont ever see him throwing a franchise on his back and winning to spite roster flaws like real franchise QB do. ex. Wilson, Brady, MaHolmes, Favre, Steve Young etc etc etc
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I think signing Mariota might mean we have a taker for Carr and plan to go QB. (oh i see you said that a bit later)

raiderfreak7 said:
I think if Herbert is there at 12 we pull the trigger. I just don't see him dropping. I'm flipping a liiiiiiittle on Herbert the more I watch him. I actually think I like him slightly more than Love now. It's close though.
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Herbert over Love for sure. Love gives me an Aaron Brooks vibe...
 
hawaiianboy said:
So much for BPA then?
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BPA is always just an opinion until 5 years after the draft.


I think if you see a superior player and its very obvious, sure BPA. But in the subjective context of the draft do we really know that J.Kinlaw isnt better than Ruggs III (a third WR on his team) Kinlaw has production, size and tore up the senior bowl. Who says he isnt BPA?

Jeudy has some drops and isnt physically dominating. A.Thomas played high level LT for a 1k + snaps and only gave up 5 sacks in his college career. He played TONS of great completion. Is he more of sure thing that JJ? IDK


So it really is subjective to who thinks who is the BPA. And when its close I think you have to play it smart. A CB is more valuable than a LB. So is BPA mostly always going to favor a DB over a LB? Where does your need for the position factor in. Where does the availably of the position factor in. If there are no starting CB's worth a shit and you get one, is that a better draft move than finding a great RB who is technically closer to the top of his fellow RB's. Some would argue the rarer to find lesser CB would be the BPA for the situation and make the most sense for the other factors. Cap, positional needs, career life span etc



I would never pass a blue chip player like Simmons, Okudah or Burrow for need. But in this insanely deep WR class I think they should def take advantage of the value. Kind of like how QB's get over drafted every year. BPA of course if its obvious, but if its close talent wise you have to start accounting for those other factors. Just the nuance involved IMO.


TLDR: Its not always BPA - bc after pick #10 or so that player is not always agreed upon. Its BLUE CHIPS > everything. Need factors in around outside the top 10 often.
 
Nobodyinparticular said:
I don't agree that passing on 3 WRs at #12 pushes 1 down to #19. You are looking at 6 spots for <= 2 WR selections. And almost every one of those teams has a fairly significant WR need. It also puts you in a position to be jumped by a team behind you that needs a WR because everyone knows the Raiders "need" a WR. I have every one of the top WRs in my top 10 in value. That means if all 3 of them drop, you have a chance to get plus-value at the #12 spot. It also increases the chance that another team sees that value from pick #13-18.

If the WRs were rated #14-20, sure. I make that gamble. But not with top 10 talents.
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Who knows what could happen. I do know mathematically it makes some sense. And I have done like 3k shitty mock drafts and whenever I pass those 3 at 12 quite often one falls to #19.

ex. The 49ers & Broncos sit behind pick 12. They both would likely take a WR like Lamb, Jeudy there if they had their choice. So who would trade up for Ruggs III? Maybe Philadelphia? I def see scenarios where it could go both ways. But passing all 3 at #12 is the ONLY realsictic way we get one at #19.

I only see two teams that would take a WR round one before that #19 pick after #12. Its a decent play! You gamble and lose, you get some other talent pushed down. Im not sure Ruggs is BPA over other guys at #19. We need one badly and that is clouding our vision some. We want the WR to be BPA too haha. Mayock hinted at the WR depth in this class and how 1st round WR's bust. I probably would take Lamb or Jeudy at #12 and call it a day personally, but Ruggs feels better at #19. Or waiting and getting someone talented being pushed down.


Also if we really saw teams go BPA there would be too many highly graded WR's. Not possible. We have dudes with round 1 grades in the end of round 2 in mocks. Its crazy.
 
Mayock def reached on Ferrell so I'm guessing gambling on the draft falling certain ways in not their style. I personally love when I see teams play the board magically.

And I agree he likely doesn't view the 3 WR's the same. But most other draft people all rank them super close. So if you get one at #19 you are getting graded A+++++ day one regardless of what slipping player you take at #12

ex.

Blue Chips:

1. Burrow
2. Chase Young
3. Okudah
4. Simmons
5. Tua

BPA AT YOUR OWN RISK!

6. Herbert
7. A.Thomas
8. Wills
9. J.Love
10. Becton
11. Wirfs
12. Henderson
13. D.Brown
14. Kinlaw

These are all players the non WR players I think would be under consideration at #12.

That would leave 2 players, 3 Wr's left to slip to #19. In this "I'm just bored" theoretical scenario, we would need Queen, Murray or one of the DB's to sneak up. Maybe someone gets crazy and draft a RB or S like McKinney/Delpit. Maybe another CB like Fulton etc. Where are the DE's being selected? Any top #19? If so this is more plausible. No pro days kinda mucking everything up.

Just saying that in all my crazy anything can happen during the draft ideas the Raiders landing one of the big 3 at #19 would be the home run A++++ scenario. Not saying its highly probable but its def backed w some logic and entirely possible.


Again, I probably take JJ or Lamb personally, but that take is boring and doesn't start and good draft convo haha
 
Armyr8rfan said:
Herbert will take off and run, and not be afraid to take a hit. I just don’t think his processing is quick enough (at least yet). He’s not as accurate. But he’s got all the tools physically.

Idk....he has scared me for two years. I have seen him plenty and I just don’t really see “it”. Could be wrong.
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Fully agree. He is worth the gamble but I dont think he is much better than Carr in the NFL due to the same flaws.

Always thought Carr was a good comp haha
 
007 said:
You want the BPA just follow the blackreign 2020 Top 100 prospect guide.

#99.95
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You should really include my step by step guide to why you don’t waste your time with pointless wins when you’re not a contender in your premium content. Probably a little too much to take in for the basic subscribers.
 
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BigTron said:
Fully agree. He is worth the gamble but I dont think he is much better than Carr in the NFL due to the same flaws.

Always thought Carr was a good comp haha
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Is a physically superior Carr that’ll take off and run that bad?
 
Crow said:
10 year guaranteed contract...
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That gives me hope he can go take a risk and get his guy. Trade 12/19/2021 1st for Tua and he's still not going anywhere if it doesn't work out for him... he has one of the most secure HC jobs in the league.
 
gst8 said:
Is a physically superior Carr that’ll take off and run that bad?
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No he is worth the gamble in round 1. He has the pedigree. But unlike Burrow his flaws are a little more concerning. Shit, Tua's entire injury history is a nightmare. He could drop bc teams won't get to check him out enough. Crazy shit.

I like Herbert but I think his Cutler / Joe Flacco demeanor are off-putting somewhat haha. And I do wonder if he can deal with NFL pressure altho his PFF pressure number are legit. I prefer J.Love because he has a higher upside. Just not sure if he can limit the stupid throws nobody should be making at that point in their career. Idc that his team sucked, why throw nonsense passes ever.

Tua is a baller , same w Burrow. Hurts in round 3 sure
 
Crow said:
Turtle pussy is always bad.
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Is he a turtle pussy or is the comp based on his one read tendencies? If he’ll take off and run he’s at least one nut up from Derek.
 
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