Week One....

[Angry Pope]

Here are odds for week one of the regular season...

July 05, 2006

NFL 2006: A look into the Futures

by Shawn Sillinger


Tired of betting on baseball and the World Cup? Week 1 games in the National Football League are still a ways off, but lines are already being posted for the contests (which get underway early September). Here are the current spreads for the season openers:

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-8)

Chicago Bears (-3) at Green Bay Packers

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at St. Louis Rams

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at New York Giants

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3)

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Houston Texans

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

San Diego Chargers (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders

The biggest favorite for Week 1 right now? That’d be the New England Patriots, who are coming off a disappointing 2005 campaign that saw them fall short of another Super Bowl title. The Pats will be taking on the division-rival Bills in their opener, and Buffalo has yet to even settle on a starting quarterback for the season (J.P. Losman is the frontrunner). Barring a camp injury to Tom Brady, don’t expect this line to move much.

Also favored by a wide margin in Week 1 are the Arizona Cardinals, who are giving seven points at home to the San Francisco 49ers. The Cards bolstered their offense in the offseason by signing running back Edgerrin James and drafting quarterback Matt Leinart. That could be enough to make Arizona competitive in a weak NFC. San Fran, meanwhile, don’t look likely to improve on 2005’s four-win campaign in the coming year.

Bettors should also be taking note of all the current Week 1 home dogs. Each of the Green Bay Packers, St. Louis Rams, New York Giants, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, and Oakland Raiders are pegged as the underdog by oddsmakers. Of those six teams only the Giants are expected to be good in 2006, but they’re up against the Indianapolis Colts in their opener (Manning vs. Manning). The other five will be in tough all season.

If it’s still too early for you to analyze point spreads, there are also many NFL prop bets available right now. The New Orleans Saints’ Reggie Bush is currently listed as the +150 favorite to win the Sporting News Rookie of the Year award in 2006, with Santonio Holmes and DeAngelo Williams next on the list at +450 odds. Mario Williams is pegged at +800, Leinart sits at +1100, followed by Vince Young (+1500) and Jay Cutler (+2500).

Packers fans can lay down some cash on some Brett Favre props, betting on whether the veteran QB will start every game for Green Bay (No = -140), break Dan Marino’s all-time touchdown pass record (No = -150), or retire before the 2006 season is over (No = -700). As well, correctly wagering that the Packers will bounce back and make the playoffs this season pays off at +200 odds, while the No side of the question is at -350.

Of course, there are also regular futures available now too, with the Patriots currently sitting as +500 favorites to win Super Bowl XLI, followed by the Colts (+550), Broncos (+900), Seahawks (+900), Steelers (+1000), Panthers (+1000), and Cowboys (+1000). The biggest title longshots right now are the Texans (+10000) and the 49ers (+12000).

And it’s not as potentially lucrative to bet on National Football League division winners, but it’s much easier to peg a division champ than it is to predict a Super Bowl champ. Here are the current favorites to win each of the league’s divisions in the 2006 season:

AFC East: New England Patriots -185

AFC North: OFF

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts -435

AFC West: Denver Broncos -125

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys +125

NFC North: Chicago Bears -235

NFC South: Carolina Panthers -175

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks -365

Oddsmakers predict the NFC East will be the tightest division race in the 2006 season. The Cowboys are only listed as +125 favorites, while the Giants (+225), Redskins (+225), and Eagles (+275) aren’t that far behind on the list. Watch for AFC North odds to be posted again once Ben Roethlisberger’s status with the Steelers is all cleared up.

 

[Crossbones]

We'll see what the vBookie thinks when we get closer to the game...I don't trust these clowns.

 

[Angry Pope]

We'll see what the vBookie thinks when we get closer to the game...I don't trust these clowns.

LOL...that vBookie thing has me excited. Yet another reason for the season to start.

 

[Angry Pope]

Wins..under/over...

Identifying the winners and losers in the AFC

Dan Hinxman

July 6, 2006

Now that the minor league sports -- NBA and NHL -- have finally stopped invading our senses, we can turn our attention to the sport that pays the bills (certainly the casinos would agree with that assessment) -- football.

July may seem like baseball season, but it also means that we're only a few weeks away from NFL training camps. And one of the most intriguing prop bets available is the NFL regular season win totals.

This week, we take a look at the AFC teams (2005 records in parentheses). We'll tackle the NFC teams later this month.

Indianapolis COLTS (14-2) -- 111/2

Over, +1.10; under, -1.40

Bet: Over

Why: RB Dominic Rhodes is a worthy replacement for the departed Edgerrin James; other than James, no real significant losses to 2005 roster; lost no more than four games in each of the last three years; schedule is favorable.

Denver Broncos (13-3) -- 101/2

Over, +1.10; under, -1.40

Bet: Under

Why: How did these guys win 13 games last year?; signing of WR Javon Walker should be a plus, but QB Jake Plummer not likely to repeat his solid campaign of a year ago (18 TDs, 7 INTs); too many good AFC teams to think Broncos can go 11-5 or better.

New England Patriots (10-6) -- 10

Over, -1.50; under, +1.20

Bet: Over

Why: LB Tedy Bruschi, heart and soul of the defense, is back for a full season; RB Corey Dillon, injured for much of 2005, is feeling threatened by draft pick Laurence Maroney; they still have head coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) -- 10

Over, -1.40; under, +1.10

Bet: Under

Why: It seems absurd to think the defending champs will go no better than 9-7, but they're in a tough division that's getting tougher; the retirement of RB Jerome Bettis and a summer of bad news (QB Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle wreck; WR Santonio Holmes' arrest) don't help; and every team they play will be looking to knock off the champs.

Miami Dolphins (9-7) -- 91/2

Over, -1.05; under, -1.25

Bet: Over

Why: QB Daunte Culpepper must feel like he's been reborn since leaving Minnesota to return home; DE tandem of Jason Taylor and Kevin Carter could be dominating; head coach Nick Saban, in his second year, has them believing in themselves (they won six straight to finish last season).

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) -- 91/2

Over, +1.10; under, -1.40

Bet: Under

Why: QB Trent Green is 36, oft-injured RB Priest Holmes turns 33 this season, OL Willie Roaf and Will Shields are 36 and 35, respectively, this season; Herman Edwards is a great motivator and coach, but it might take him a couple years to get Chiefs back to playoff mode.

Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) -- 9

Over, -1.15; under, -1.15

Bet: Under

Why: The two biggest pieces in the Bengal puzzle are QB Carson Palmer, who had a career-threatening injury in a playoff loss to the Steelers last season, and WR Chad Johnson, who is an MVP-caliber player; there's no telling how ready Palmer will be, and the brash Johnson just signed a big extension, which means he could very easily rest on his laurels.

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) -- 9

Over, -1.10; under, -1.20

Bet: Under

Why: A former Arkansas QB, Matt Jones, is the team's top WR now that Jimmy Smith has retired; lost more than they won in free agency; can QB Byron Leftwich throw just five interceptions again this season?

San Diego Chargers (9-7) -- 9

Over, +1.20; under, -1.50

Bet: Under

Why: QB Philip Rivers is the key; the veritable rookie (he backed up Drew Brees in each of the last two seasons) must develop quickly to keep the heat off RB LaDainian Tomlinson; odds are it won't be quickly enough to keep the Chargers from losing a handful of early games -- at least.

Baltimore Ravens (6-10) -- 8

Over, even; under, -1.30

Bet: Over

Why: QB Steve McNair turns this team from a sub-.500 team into a potential playoff team -- if he stays healthy; McNair will also help RB Jamal Lewis return to the form that made him one of the league's top bruising backs; not the great defensive team it once was, but still one of the league's better defensive squads.

Cleveland Browns (6-10) -- 61/2

Over, -1.50; under, +1.20

Bet: Over

Why: The Browns were the worst offensive team in the NFL last year ... but they got better defensively, adding LB Willie McGinest and run-stopping DL Ted Washington (in theory anyway ... Washington looked ready for the pasture last season in Oakland); TE Kellen Winslow Jr. is healthy, but how many catches is he going to make with Charlie Frye at QB?; still, they should get seven wins.

Oakland Raiders (4-12) -- 61/2

Over, -1.40; under, +1.10

Bet: Under

Why: These numbers indicate that the experts believe the Raiders are at least three games better than they were last year ... not with new QB Aaron Brooks; you gotta love that Art Shell is back in Raider black, but this is too big a job even for him.

Buffalo Bills (5-11) -- 61/2

Over, -1.20; under, -1.10

Bet: Under

Why: WR Eric Moulds out and WR Peerless Price in, and the Bills did get two first-round draft picks this year, but other than that they don't look much different from the 2005 squad; play in the toughest conference and what is looking to be a tough division.

New York Jets (4-12) -- 61/2

Over, +1.20; under, -1.50

Bet: Over

Why: Got help on the line on both sides of the ball (OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson fourth overall pick and signed free agent DL Kimo von Oelhoffen); team's success depends largely on QB Chad Pennington, who is coming back from major shoulder injury and played in just three games last season.

Houston Texans (2-14) -- 51/2

Over, -1.50; under, +1.20

Bet: Over

Why: QB David Carr was sacked 68 times last season, so the Texans drafted ... a DE, Mario Williams; still, a lot of new blood (head coach Gary Kubiak, C Steve McKinney, WR Eric Moulds) should breathe life into stagnant franchise; get average-at-best teams Philadelphia, Buffalo, Tennessee and Cleveland at home this season.

Tennessee Titans (4-12) -- 51/2

Over, -1.35; under, +1.05

Bet: Under

Why: At what week will QB Vince Young (third overall pick) supplant Billy Volek? -- it likely won't matter, at least not this season; Titans plan to run the ball more this year, and with RBs Chris Brown, Travis Henry and LenDale White, they would seem to be good at it -- but remember "Eight defenders in the box" Volek is their QB.

 

[Rupert]

Excellent stuff Benedict! The bookie is on it.

 

[Angry Pope]

Excellent stuff Benedict! The bookie is on it.

Great man for the job

 

[Angry Pope]

Odds on Super Bowl and division winners.....

Odds to win the 2007 Super Bowl

Arizona Cardinals 45/1

Atlanta Falcons 30/1

Baltimore Ravens 22/1

Buffalo Bills 100/1

Carolina Panthers 13/1

Chicago Bears 15/1

Cincinnati Bengals 20/1

Cleveland Browns 90/1

Dallas Cowboys 12/1

Denver Broncos 10/1

Detroit Lions 90/1

Green Bay Packers 80/1

Houston Texans 90/1

Indianapolis Colts 6/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 30/1

Kansas City Chiefs 18/1

Miami Dolphins 20/1

Minnesota Vikings 30/1

New England Patriots 8/1

New Orleans Saints 45/1

New York Giants 15/1

New York Jets 70/1

Oakland Raiders 70/1

Philadelphia Eagles 18/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1

San Diego Chargers 14/1

San Francisco 49ers 125/1

Seattle Seahawks 10/1

St.Louis Rams 60/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1

Tennessee Titans 100/1

Washington Redskins 14/1


Odds to win 2007 NFC Championship

Arizona Cardinals 15/1

Atlanta Falcons 13/1

Carolina Panthers 5/1

Chicago Bears 7/1

Dallas Cowboys 11/2

Detroit Lions 35/1

Green Bay Packers 35/1

Minnesota Vikings 13/1

New Orleans Saints 22/1

New York Giants 7/1

Philadelphia Eagles 7/1

San Francisco 49ers 65/1

Seattle Seahawks 4/1

St.Louis Rams 28/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13/1

Washington Redskins 6/1


Odds to win 2007 AFC Championship

Baltimore Ravens 10/1

Buffalo Bills 45/1

Cincinnati Bengals 15/2

Cleveland Browns 33/1

Denver Broncos 6/1

Houston Texans 55/1

Indianapolis Colts 3/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 15/1

Kansas City Chiefs 10/1

Miami Dolphins 10/1

New England Patriots 4/1

New York Jets 25/1

Oakland Raiders 35/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1

San Diego Chargers 9/1

Tennessee Titans 50/1


Odds to win 2007 NFC East Championship

Dallas Cowboys 8/5

New York Giants 9/4

Philadelphia Eagles 3/1

Washington Redskins 9/4


Odds to win 2007 NFC North Championship

Chicago Bears 5/9

Detroit Lions 5/1

Green Bay Packers 13/2

Minnesota Vikings 5/2


Odds to win 2007 NFC South Championship

Atlanta Falcons 13/5

Carolina Panthers 5/7

New Orleans Saints 5/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3/1


Odds to win 2007 NFC West Championship

Arizona Cardinals 12/5

San Francisco 49ers 18/1

Seattle Seahawks 1/3

St.Louis Rams 5/1


Odds to win 2007 AFC East Championship

Buffalo Bills 9/1

Miami Dolphins 9/5

New England Patriots 1/3

New York Jets 10/1


Odds to win 2007 AFC South Championship

Houston Texans 12/1

Indianapolis Colts 1/5

Jacksonville Jaguars 3/1

Tennessee Titans 20/1


Odds to win 2007 AFC West Championship

Denver Broncos 6/5

Kansas City Chiefs 8/5

Oakland Raiders 10/1

San Diego Chargers 2/1

 

[Rupert]

Benedict you ROCK!

 

[Rupert]

Bump-diddy-bump-bump.

Sorry, just reminding myself.