Week 6 Preview – Raiders @ Denver

Rupert

The Long Wind
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Week 6 Preview – Raiders @ Denver
October 10, 2003
By Rupert Pollard

The Raiders are coming off a disappointing defeat. What looked like a competitive game went sour when turnovers mounted and turned the tide in favor of San Francisco. Denver, on the other hand, waged a defensive struggle Monday night against Baltimore. After a game-long struggle trying to establish their passing game, Denver ran the ball down Baltimore’s throat before passing the ball for a back-breaking touchdown. Denver’s defense held Baltimore’s offense in relative check, and made up for occasionally over-aggressive play by taking the ball away.

Offense

The Raiders offense showed some improvement last week. They put up their largest yardage total gaining 154 yards on the ground and 216 through the air for a total of 370. This week, their improving offensive line will be put to the test by a smaller but quick Denver front four. So far the Raiders’ offensive line has had difficulty with stunts and blitzes. Denver employs a stunting, blitzing, and gap-charging scheme designed to get into the opposing backfield. Once again the Raiders will be challenged to keep defenders off the runners and away from the quarterback.

The Raiders got downright offensive with five turnovers. The ugliest of them was a lateral to Lamont Jordan that he gave up on as San Francisco defenders uncertainly carried into the end zone. Denver has not been good at taking the ball away until their pressure and swarming secondary took advantage of an error-prone Steve McNair. If Andrew Walter repeats last week’s second half performance, the Raider offense will be lucky to put points on the board.

The Raiders put up almost 350 yards on the ground in two weeks. Unfortunately, it didn’t allow them to control the clock. Denver, allowed Baltimore to control the clock, but the stats are deceiving since they were able to get stops when they needed them. Denver’s defensive line wore down against Baltimore’s punishing offensive line, and the Raiders should attempt to use the same smash-mouth philosophy to wear Denver’s front seven down.

To succeed, the Raiders will need to find consistency against Denver’s speedy front seven. They should remain patient and pound the ball at Denver. Unlike against Cleveland or San Francisco, they shouldn’t expect to rattle off big gains to compensate for the 1 and 2-yarders. John Lynch will often be moved into the box to make the tackle if the backers can’t get off their blockers. In the passing game, Walter will have to remain patient. Denver employs almost as many zones as they do man coverage. Walter cannot be caught guessing against Denver’s corners; he will have to know his reads and not get confused by disguised coverages. Of course, a solid performance by Walter will hinge upon whether he gets enough protection. Denver’s defensive line will wear down as the game progresses, as long as the Raiders remain in the game, they will be able to take advantage late in both halves.

Baltimore was generally unsuccessful at employing pulling linemen to run the ball, so I wouldn’t advise the Raiders to try it either. Denver often found themselves in the backfield disrupting the play when Baltimore pulled their linemen. So I wouldn’t recommend the Raiders do too much pulling of their linemen, not even to get out in front of a sweep.

Defense

Denver’s offensive line is probably the most accomplished zone blocking unit in the NFL. Smaller on average than any other line in the league, they don’t usually employ double-teams. This should play well into the fact that the Raiders don’t have a true nose tackle. However, Denver is pretty good at staying between their man and the ball-carrier. The fact that they stay away from double team blocking means they’ve usually got an offensive lineman downfield on a backer. With one backer out of the equation and the TE on another at the point of attack, the fullback usually greets the safety filling the hole, and that’s bad news. Teams usually counter this by run blitzing the strong backer and rotating the backers over quickly in pursuit to get play-side leverage on the lineman working to the second level. The problem is, without backside contain, the cutback lane is usually wide open.

The Raiders are going to have to be quick and disciplined to keep Denver’s running game in check. Since the Raiders DL tends to penetrate instead of muscle opposing linemen, I would recommend they shoot the gaps and meet the RB in the backfield. Of course being effective at that would most likely bring Denver’s typical, and borderline legal, response, the cut block. The Raiders will need to be prepared for it. Of course the Raiders could size up and try to wear Denver's line down. They showed some signs of being tired late against Baltimore, but for the most part, they looked very well conditioned.

Baltimore was able to keep Jake Plummer between the tackles during the first half. By doing so, they turned him into the Jake Plummer who found ways to lose games. Baltimore used their defensive ends to contain and held Plummer in the pocket. In the second half, Denver used play action to break contain and get Plummer moving, which greatly improved his efficiency. Since I think the Raiders would do well to get past Denver’s linemen as quickly as possible no matter the situation, they should have a good day rushing the passer. But in light of Plummer’s efficiency outside of the pocket, the Raiders are going to have to ensure contain on every play.

The Raiders have been getting burned on screen passes, and if the Raiders are successful in penetrating against the run or pass, expect Denver to unleash a plethora of screens and swing passes to frustrate the rushers. I would suggest the Raiders show blitz with a backer and then have him mirror the back out of the backfield. The key will be getting around the lineman and to the back before the ball is thrown on a screen. Tight man coverage behind the line could also be a problem if things get crowded, but anything the backer can do to slow the play down will give the rest of the defense a chance to swarm the ball.

Special Teams

Denver’s special teams were better against Baltimore than they have been all season. Their returns were above their average, and their coverage allowed less than their average. But the Raiders returners did well against Baltimore too. It appears that Denver is better in coverage than the Raiders are. As far as kickers go both teams are set. Elam and Janikowski are nails. While Denver’s punter is an injury replacement, he did well in the thin air. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lechler topping 60 yards if necessary.

Bottom Line

Denver’s defense doesn’t like giving up points. This doesn’t bode well for a Raiders offense that doesn’t seem prepared to score them on a regular basis yet.

For the second week in a row Denver will be hosting a late-night affair one-mile up. Against Baltimore, the chilling rain made field conditions dicey. One week later, who knows what field and weather conditions will be when the Raiders take the field? For a team struggling to master their own execution and enthusiasm on the field, bad weather could be a bad omen.

Regardless of the venue and Mother Nature’s involvement, Andrew Walter, who has been given the nod as the starting QB against Denver, was showing signs of getting into an NFL groove before he derailed himself in the second half against San Francisco. If he can put two good halves together against Denver, the Raiders will have a chance. The Raiders defense will have to come up strong against the run, and deal with the league’s best implementation of a zone blocking scheme (cut blocks and all), to give themselves a chance to play well against the pass. It would appear to me that this is an ideal situation to get some success. However, if Denver can establish its running game, it will be an uphill battle for the Raiders all game.

My guess is that Denver will find some success against the Raiders defense, probably not all game, but I think they’ll find enough of it. The Raiders will get to face a defense that will be motivated to continue to prove themselves to be among the league’s elite. If the Raiders thought going against San Diego and Baltimore was unfair to open the season, they’ll get to measure how far they’ve come since then against Denver.

No hedges, no what if’s, this game goes to Denver 24 – 13. The Raiders’ D keeps them in it, but Denver’s D keeps the Raiders from capitalizing. Still, the Raiders O puts a touchdown on the board, which is more than Baltimore or Kansas City could do. More improvement in a loss, I’m so geeked.

Re-posted here at the request of the almighty Bones.
 
Well I figure a lot of people didn't see it...so sue me! :D
 
I didn't see it, so thanks for reposting. A great read.
 
Limee said:
I didn't see it, so thanks for reposting. A great read.


Me either... of course that's probably because I shortcut straight to this page... That got me chastised by Bones for asking him a question when the answer was clearly located on the home page... I still don't understand having to take off my shirt when he rapped my knuckles with the ruler though....


Great read Rup.... I agree that points will be hard to come by for the Raiders because the Donx probably feature the fastest defense we'll see all year... and I agree with your suggested approach of running right at them... Myself I'd be tempted to activate Hulsey and feature him as a 2nd TE in a two TE set and play smash ball to set up a play action pass or two... Meet speed with power...

On defense, the best bet is to blitz Plummer like crazy and try and goad him into the kind of boneheaded mistake he has been apt to make under duress...
 
Sadly, I think 24-13 is optomistic. But, I'm holding out for some rivalry magic. Maybe this is the game we should activate Jerry "Chump Killa" Porter for?

LOL
 
Nice read Rup -- now I've read it twice. :mad:

They don't call you The Long Wind for nothin'. ;) ;)
 
Denver is only about as good as baltimore and the key to beating them is stopping the run, forcing plummer to pocket pass, and blocking the blitz. They havent changed in a few years, nor has the formula to beat them. its the 3rd key that worries me most. They will give us all the chances in the world to burn their one on one coverage when they blitz. but we have to block it. tough task for us. But the reward for giving walter time can be bigger because they will blitz corners and safeties to gamble hard on the young qb. Good Luck to our guys. They've gone through quite a bit of self inflicted abuse. Its time to get some of their pride back.

Oh yea my second biggest worry is whitted against darent williams and chump bailey. Oh Whitted why won't you vanish you fuck.:mad:
 
If we're lucky they'll use Ronald Curry instead of Whitted. Curry creates matchup problems that Whited does not, but we all know that.
 
Rupert said:
If we're lucky they'll use Ronald Curry instead of Whitted. Curry creates matchup problems that Whited does not, but we all know that.
Alvis looks like one of these > :eek: out there most plays.

Well there is some merit to trying to keep Curry in one piece while we fix this thing but as HBoy points out, why the hell is the man on ST? That is just dumb.
 
Put Porter in and let him play dammit :mad:
 
I think the points allowed stat is somewhat deceving as our offense has singlehandedly given the ball away on numerous occasions well inside the opposition's territory leading to too many easy points. In addition the "not so special" teams allowed too many long returns in the Cleveland game which allowed the Browns ample scoring opportunities and the blocked punt which ultimately lost us the Niner game.

Let's also not forget this is a very young defensive unit with two rookies and several 2nd year guys starting. We need a better presence on the inside of the line and another guy coming off the edge. I'd probably move Huff to FS if we can find the right guy to play SS.

If I'm Shell, I'm getting my head out of my ass and start Porter this week, although I have my doubts. I also bench Walker and replace him with Slaughter or McNasty. I also find a way to get Corey Hulsey in the lineup.
 
Madturk said:
I'd probably move Huff to FS if we can find the right guy to play SS.
I'd love to see this happen eventually. It's not going to happen this year though. Huff might be a little slight to be playing SS in my opinion.
 
Yes, Huff looks a little light as a SS, but he just got here. Still I'd rather not sacrifice his speed for some more size, and we definitely don't have his replacement on the roster. Gibson is looking like a permanent also-ran. 1st-round backup. D'Oh!
 
Rup nice write up....I have to say that the fact the Denver isn't putting a ton of point on the board right now, give me a slight glimmer of hope that we can steal one here.......
 
Madturk said:




Let's also not forget this is a very young defensive unit with two rookies and several 2nd year guys starting. We need a better presence on the inside of the line and another guy coming off the edge. I'd probably move Huff to FS if we can find the right guy to play SS.



I wasn't the biggest fan of taking Huff with our first round pick, but I will say this about the guy, he has excellent field vision and instincts... He always seems this >< close to making a big play... That'll come with experience... That the speed of the NFL game hasn't been a problem for him is very encouraging... I'd rather see him in centerfield as well... With his vision and speed, a move there would allow him to make more plays on the ball and probably save his body in the process...

As tempting as it would be to reunite him with his college safety mate Michael Griffin or that nasty white kid from Notre Dame through the draft, we may be better off making a run at Ken Hamlin... We need a big hitter back there... Either that or tinker with the idea of moving Bing back to SS in a John Lynch type role...


I mean if you really want to dream big, Indy is said to be reluctant to throw a big money contract at Dwight Freeney... If they don't franchise him, we could conceiveably throw the money earmarked for Moss his way... I know it's not likely and we would have to outbid everyone, but I think we're going to have to be a big player in FA if we want to accelerate the timeline of becoming a competitive team....
 
Huff is OK, as soon as he can get some balls in his hands, he will have fulfilled many expectations. As a starter rookie in one of the most difficult positions to play he still needs to be dominant, but that will come up in time. Charles Woodson was the dominant type, but as soon as the physycal talent stopped doing the whole job and he needed more of his braincells, his decay started. Huff seems a smart kinda player, let's see.
 
Abelardo wrote,

"as he can get some balls in his hands"

Bwahahahahahahaha

(forgive the juvenile humor - bwhahahahahaha)
 
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