Rupert
The Long Wind
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Week 5 Preview – Raiders @ San Francisco
October 4, 2003
By Rupert Pollard
The Raiders are coming off an odd defeat. The game could have been called A Tale of Two Halves. In the first half, the Raiders dominated with a physical defense and a quick strike offense. The second half saw the defense still in physical form, but wearing down as the offense sputtered and stalled. Still, there was hope to be had in crossing the goal line for the first two times of the season, and adding the first defensive touchdown of the season as well. San Francisco, on the other hand suffered a shutout of humiliating proportions. They gave Kansas City good field position all day, only stopped 4 of 10 drives, and gave up a punt return for a touchdown. On offense they only mustered one 12 play drive for a mere 48 yards that ended in a missed field goal, and they gave up a fumble and two interceptions during the game.
Offense
The Raiders offense got a shot in the arm by facing one of the league’s weaker defenses. Two big runs helped them to post nearly 200 yards on the ground, but their numbers in the air regressed from the prior week. Despite putting up big numbers rushing last week, the Raiders are still trying to find anything resembling consistency in either facet of their offense. The Raiders would have to average nearly 60 yards and 9 points more per game to get out of the cellar in those categories. To that end, San Francisco’s defense seems capable of helping them move in that direction, but Cleveland’s defense had similar capabilities last week.
San Francisco has a more potent offense than Cleveland did, even after a horrible turnout against Kansas City. They’re slightly above average in most offensive categories except for points. Even still, they put 9 points more on the board than Oakland does. Their above average rushing attack will put Oakland’s run defense to the test again, but their passing attack won’t be much of a threat to Oakland’s emerging pass defense.
It’s time to make excuses and explanations. Both of these offenses are in their first year under new coordinators. Both of them currently sport plenty of youth and inexperience. I wish there was a common opponent to look at and judge them one against the other, but there isn’t. Due to an equipment malfunction I don’t even have an eyeball test for this week, so I’m literally flying blind. But even a blind man could read these stats in Braille; Oakland’s offense is significantly weaker than San Francisco’s.
Defense
On defense, the Raiders still rank highly, if only for the fact that teams haven’t needed to pass too much against them. Cleveland failed to reach 200 yards against them, but threw three touchdowns. On the other hand, Cleveland threw two interceptions, one at the end of a long drive that would have iced the game. Oakland’s poor rush defense is almost the worst in the league, and they’ve given up more points than only 6 teams. Raider defenders will have to keep on their toes, but if the offense can keep them off the field a little more this week, they might actually stand a chance of not fading at the end of both halves again. It would be nice to see that for once, even if it was only one half. They should also be able to take advantage of San Francisco’s penchant for giving the ball away to get off the field a couple times.
San Francisco has one of the league’s worst defenses, ranking in the bottom third across the board, and ranking dead last in points surrendered. They might be able to improve their run defense against Oakland’s erratic execution, and their pass defense will benefit from going up against by far the league’s worst pass offense. They also have a decent pass rush that might once again put Oakland’s pass protectors on their heels and their QB on his wallet.
As far as excuses and explanations go, San Francisco is a young team everywhere, and that goes for defense too. Oakland has a young defense, true, but a relatively stable defensive scheme which most players are familiar with. Their excuse is that they’ve been on the field forever. Neither one of these units has benefited from great field position, but Oakland has obviously been on the worst end of it so far since their yards against are significantly lower but their points against are not. Regardless of explanations, Oakland seems to have a fairly significant advantage here.
Special Teams
When it comes to punting, Andy Lee is no Shane Lechler. In the kicking game, it finally seems obvious why Oakland let Joe Nedney go to draft Sebastian Janikowski (I’m still unhappy about drafting a kicker in the first round even though Jano finally looks like he cares). The difference in these units comes down to their coverage. San Francisco can clamp down on the kicks, but has trouble with the punts. Oakland was solid for the first two games before giving up big yardage to Cleveland on punts and kicks. While Oakland and San Francisco seem similar on kick returns, the 49ers punt returns are almost twice as effective.
Bottom Line
Now I’ve got to figure out what it all means. San Francisco’s offensive line is fairly steady, and their pass rush is more effective than Oakland’s. Norv Turner, the new offensive coordinator in San Francisco, has an intimate knowledge of Oakland’s defensive scheme, having been the head coach last season (like we don’t know that here in AFC West land). But that cuts both ways since Rob Ryan is intimately familiar with Turner’s offensive approach.
Can you tell I’m stalling? I really wish I’d have been able to eyeball San Francisco. Damn! With all the numbers in, I say San Francisco edges Oakland by the tighter than it should be score of 24 to 23. I was going to say 22, but in the last minute decided that Art Shell would take the 1-point conversion (instead of failing on a 2-point conversion) before hoping to get the ball back in time to kick a game winning field goal. The defense, having once again been on the field too long, gives up enough first downs to seal the loss. For the second week in a row, Raider hopes are dashed.
Hedge Alert: If Oakland can get its passing game functioning I’d change that outcome to 27 – 24 for Oakland. This might be the week their passing game breaks out (not that I think it’s the beginning of a roll). I just don’t have the confidence to commit to that happening.
October 4, 2003
By Rupert Pollard
The Raiders are coming off an odd defeat. The game could have been called A Tale of Two Halves. In the first half, the Raiders dominated with a physical defense and a quick strike offense. The second half saw the defense still in physical form, but wearing down as the offense sputtered and stalled. Still, there was hope to be had in crossing the goal line for the first two times of the season, and adding the first defensive touchdown of the season as well. San Francisco, on the other hand suffered a shutout of humiliating proportions. They gave Kansas City good field position all day, only stopped 4 of 10 drives, and gave up a punt return for a touchdown. On offense they only mustered one 12 play drive for a mere 48 yards that ended in a missed field goal, and they gave up a fumble and two interceptions during the game.
Offense
The Raiders offense got a shot in the arm by facing one of the league’s weaker defenses. Two big runs helped them to post nearly 200 yards on the ground, but their numbers in the air regressed from the prior week. Despite putting up big numbers rushing last week, the Raiders are still trying to find anything resembling consistency in either facet of their offense. The Raiders would have to average nearly 60 yards and 9 points more per game to get out of the cellar in those categories. To that end, San Francisco’s defense seems capable of helping them move in that direction, but Cleveland’s defense had similar capabilities last week.
San Francisco has a more potent offense than Cleveland did, even after a horrible turnout against Kansas City. They’re slightly above average in most offensive categories except for points. Even still, they put 9 points more on the board than Oakland does. Their above average rushing attack will put Oakland’s run defense to the test again, but their passing attack won’t be much of a threat to Oakland’s emerging pass defense.
It’s time to make excuses and explanations. Both of these offenses are in their first year under new coordinators. Both of them currently sport plenty of youth and inexperience. I wish there was a common opponent to look at and judge them one against the other, but there isn’t. Due to an equipment malfunction I don’t even have an eyeball test for this week, so I’m literally flying blind. But even a blind man could read these stats in Braille; Oakland’s offense is significantly weaker than San Francisco’s.
Defense
On defense, the Raiders still rank highly, if only for the fact that teams haven’t needed to pass too much against them. Cleveland failed to reach 200 yards against them, but threw three touchdowns. On the other hand, Cleveland threw two interceptions, one at the end of a long drive that would have iced the game. Oakland’s poor rush defense is almost the worst in the league, and they’ve given up more points than only 6 teams. Raider defenders will have to keep on their toes, but if the offense can keep them off the field a little more this week, they might actually stand a chance of not fading at the end of both halves again. It would be nice to see that for once, even if it was only one half. They should also be able to take advantage of San Francisco’s penchant for giving the ball away to get off the field a couple times.
San Francisco has one of the league’s worst defenses, ranking in the bottom third across the board, and ranking dead last in points surrendered. They might be able to improve their run defense against Oakland’s erratic execution, and their pass defense will benefit from going up against by far the league’s worst pass offense. They also have a decent pass rush that might once again put Oakland’s pass protectors on their heels and their QB on his wallet.
As far as excuses and explanations go, San Francisco is a young team everywhere, and that goes for defense too. Oakland has a young defense, true, but a relatively stable defensive scheme which most players are familiar with. Their excuse is that they’ve been on the field forever. Neither one of these units has benefited from great field position, but Oakland has obviously been on the worst end of it so far since their yards against are significantly lower but their points against are not. Regardless of explanations, Oakland seems to have a fairly significant advantage here.
Special Teams
When it comes to punting, Andy Lee is no Shane Lechler. In the kicking game, it finally seems obvious why Oakland let Joe Nedney go to draft Sebastian Janikowski (I’m still unhappy about drafting a kicker in the first round even though Jano finally looks like he cares). The difference in these units comes down to their coverage. San Francisco can clamp down on the kicks, but has trouble with the punts. Oakland was solid for the first two games before giving up big yardage to Cleveland on punts and kicks. While Oakland and San Francisco seem similar on kick returns, the 49ers punt returns are almost twice as effective.
Bottom Line
Now I’ve got to figure out what it all means. San Francisco’s offensive line is fairly steady, and their pass rush is more effective than Oakland’s. Norv Turner, the new offensive coordinator in San Francisco, has an intimate knowledge of Oakland’s defensive scheme, having been the head coach last season (like we don’t know that here in AFC West land). But that cuts both ways since Rob Ryan is intimately familiar with Turner’s offensive approach.
Can you tell I’m stalling? I really wish I’d have been able to eyeball San Francisco. Damn! With all the numbers in, I say San Francisco edges Oakland by the tighter than it should be score of 24 to 23. I was going to say 22, but in the last minute decided that Art Shell would take the 1-point conversion (instead of failing on a 2-point conversion) before hoping to get the ball back in time to kick a game winning field goal. The defense, having once again been on the field too long, gives up enough first downs to seal the loss. For the second week in a row, Raider hopes are dashed.
Hedge Alert: If Oakland can get its passing game functioning I’d change that outcome to 27 – 24 for Oakland. This might be the week their passing game breaks out (not that I think it’s the beginning of a roll). I just don’t have the confidence to commit to that happening.
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