Rupert
The Long Wind
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Week 10 Preview – Raiders v Denver
November 10, 2003
By Rupert Pollard
This will be an interesting game. In Denver, the Raiders held a struggling offense to 13 points. Of course, struggling themselves on offense, they were only able to muster 3 points against a shut-down defense. What has changed since then? The Raiders’ defense has improved and the Bronco’s offense has improved. What will familiarity bring to this game? Who knows? Let’s see if we can puzzle some of it out though.
Offense
The last time these two met Denver brought a small and quick front four that fires into the gaps. The Raiders’ offensive line has difficulty with stunts and blitzes, and they’ve changed their left guard because of injury. Denver employs a stunting, blitzing, and gap-charging scheme designed to get into the opposing backfield. In the first match up the Raiders had difficulty keeping defenders off the runners and away from the quarterback. Don’t expect that to change much this week. But if the Raiders can keep Denver’s defense on the field, the front four will wear down.
Denver’s defense suffered several injuries against Pittsburgh, notably, concussions to both starting safeties and the loss of backup safety Sam Brandon to a knee injury. Further complicating their defense are the concussion sustained by Al Wilson and the hamstring injury to Ian Gold. Denver’s linebackers are the main tool they use keep opposing offenses from getting comfortable. Prior to losing so many pieces, Denver was mixing up the pressure on passing downs: zone blitzes, overload blitzes, straight zones, rushing only two linemen, and dropping the NT and MLB to create a 5 under 3 deep zone or allow them to double the deep receivers. If there was any better game to let the Raiders know they won’t be able to complete passes, this was the game to watch. In spite of all the pass defense, Pittsburgh still put up big numbers. Note to Tom Walsh, look at that film carefully.
Pittsburgh’s main problem was getting down early because of turnovers, that and letting turnovers keep them from catching up. So they were forced to pass all day, which didn’t take advantage of Denver’s tendency to wear down against a power running game. The Raiders have been able to protect the ball the past two weeks, and doing the same Sunday will allow them to run the ball, something they inexplicably didn’t do in the rain in Seattle on Monday night when the receivers seemed bound a determined to drop critical passes.
To succeed, the Raiders will need to remain patient and pound the ball at Denver. If Wilson, Gold, Lynch, Ferguson, and CB Darrent Williams are slowed or missing, big plays should follow. In the passing game, Walter will have to remain patient. Denver employs almost as many zones as they do man coverage. Walter cannot be caught guessing against Denver’s corners; he will have to know his reads and not get confused by disguised coverages which seemed even more complex against Pittsburgh than in our first game. Of course, a solid performance by Walter will hinge upon whether he gets enough protection. Denver’s defensive line will wear down as the game progresses, as long as the Raiders remain in the game, they will be able to take advantage late in both halves. If Denver has to use too many replacement players, they won’t be able to employ as many blitzes successfully, but I don’t expect them to stop trying, no matter who suits up. The Raiders haven’t proven they can consistently pick up the blitz, and until they do… But based upon Denver’s even more confusing defense, the Raiders will have to release the backs if Denver shows blitz and backs off. It’s hard to expect it, but it has to have been prepared for in practice. Oh…
Defense
Denver’s offensive line is still the most accomplished zone blocking unit in the NFL. However, they had trouble establishing the run with Mike Bell and Cedric Cobbs. Knowing this, they employed as much trickery, including a brilliantly executed reverse that resulted in a 72-yard TD. To counter Pittsburgh’s blitzing nature Denver rolled Plummer out often and successfully. They kept him on his feet, only allowing one sack, never getting picked, and collecting three touchdowns. The Raiders were more successful at containing Plummer, and the results showed in their previous match up. Still I don’t expect Denver to change their methods if the Raiders get pressure in the backfield.
The Raiders will once again have to be quick and disciplined to keep Denver’s running game in check. What they used against Denver the first time was fairly effective. But against Seattle, they made an average backup runner look like an all-pro. The bad news is that Denver will be trotting out two very average backups. Lord help us.
In the passing game Javon Walker looks like an updated version of Randy Moss. He’s got big legs (and yes ladies, glutes too) and doesn’t shy away from physical play. His hands are normally sure, and he makes all the plays Moss used to be known for. He will require both tight, possibly physical, coverage and a man spying over the top. Denver made use of a pump fake early to make Ike Taylor look remarkably like Fabian Washington on a double move for a TD. Someone will have to stay home and lay the lumber to Walker, who seems to be waking up since our last meeting with them.
The Raiders like any young, aggressive defense will have to stay disciplined to keep Denver’s offense in check. Their passing game is no longer as anemic as it was in the first meeting, but their running game has struggled a bit recently. Swarming to the ball is a great thing, and will probably be very necessary; however, the key will be making certain they’re swarming the ball and not a fake. Denver has been upping the number of fakes in their offense and improving their execution, yards, and touchdowns. Confidence is brimming on the offensive side of Denver locker room too, and they’re going to want to put the Raiders defense on their heels early to assist their defense in grinding the Raiders offense up.
Special Teams
Denver’s special teams are not special. If they get Darrent Williams back onto the field, I don’t know how much punishment he will be able to take. If he cannot return punts, they’re going to be below average in the return game. The Raiders have yet to get enough blocking and luck to spring Chris Carr, but the day they do, the entire team will get a lift from it, like they have from defensive scores. Paul Ernster is not a great kickoff specialist, but he does save Elam’s leg for field goals. Even in his specialty of punting, he is below average, despite spending half his time kicking a mile up. The advantage is definitely with the Raiders here.
Final Gun
Denver’s defense doesn’t like giving up points. This doesn’t bode well for a Raiders offense that doesn’t seem prepared to score them on a regular basis yet. (No need to change this line at all – just cut and paste from the first preview.)
Denver will probably find more success against the Raiders defense than they did in the first meeting. The Raiders offense will probably find more success against Denver’s banged-up defense than they did the first time too. Regardless of their incredible lack of consistency, I expect them to find some sort of rhythm against Denver, even a herky-jerky one would be better than what they had against Seattle.
Well, Denver is definitely going to score. The question remains whether the Raiders will. I personally believe they can, but it still comes down to what they will do. When the final gun sounds, I expect Denver to win 23 to 13.
November 10, 2003
By Rupert Pollard
This will be an interesting game. In Denver, the Raiders held a struggling offense to 13 points. Of course, struggling themselves on offense, they were only able to muster 3 points against a shut-down defense. What has changed since then? The Raiders’ defense has improved and the Bronco’s offense has improved. What will familiarity bring to this game? Who knows? Let’s see if we can puzzle some of it out though.
Offense
The last time these two met Denver brought a small and quick front four that fires into the gaps. The Raiders’ offensive line has difficulty with stunts and blitzes, and they’ve changed their left guard because of injury. Denver employs a stunting, blitzing, and gap-charging scheme designed to get into the opposing backfield. In the first match up the Raiders had difficulty keeping defenders off the runners and away from the quarterback. Don’t expect that to change much this week. But if the Raiders can keep Denver’s defense on the field, the front four will wear down.
Denver’s defense suffered several injuries against Pittsburgh, notably, concussions to both starting safeties and the loss of backup safety Sam Brandon to a knee injury. Further complicating their defense are the concussion sustained by Al Wilson and the hamstring injury to Ian Gold. Denver’s linebackers are the main tool they use keep opposing offenses from getting comfortable. Prior to losing so many pieces, Denver was mixing up the pressure on passing downs: zone blitzes, overload blitzes, straight zones, rushing only two linemen, and dropping the NT and MLB to create a 5 under 3 deep zone or allow them to double the deep receivers. If there was any better game to let the Raiders know they won’t be able to complete passes, this was the game to watch. In spite of all the pass defense, Pittsburgh still put up big numbers. Note to Tom Walsh, look at that film carefully.
Pittsburgh’s main problem was getting down early because of turnovers, that and letting turnovers keep them from catching up. So they were forced to pass all day, which didn’t take advantage of Denver’s tendency to wear down against a power running game. The Raiders have been able to protect the ball the past two weeks, and doing the same Sunday will allow them to run the ball, something they inexplicably didn’t do in the rain in Seattle on Monday night when the receivers seemed bound a determined to drop critical passes.
To succeed, the Raiders will need to remain patient and pound the ball at Denver. If Wilson, Gold, Lynch, Ferguson, and CB Darrent Williams are slowed or missing, big plays should follow. In the passing game, Walter will have to remain patient. Denver employs almost as many zones as they do man coverage. Walter cannot be caught guessing against Denver’s corners; he will have to know his reads and not get confused by disguised coverages which seemed even more complex against Pittsburgh than in our first game. Of course, a solid performance by Walter will hinge upon whether he gets enough protection. Denver’s defensive line will wear down as the game progresses, as long as the Raiders remain in the game, they will be able to take advantage late in both halves. If Denver has to use too many replacement players, they won’t be able to employ as many blitzes successfully, but I don’t expect them to stop trying, no matter who suits up. The Raiders haven’t proven they can consistently pick up the blitz, and until they do… But based upon Denver’s even more confusing defense, the Raiders will have to release the backs if Denver shows blitz and backs off. It’s hard to expect it, but it has to have been prepared for in practice. Oh…
Defense
Denver’s offensive line is still the most accomplished zone blocking unit in the NFL. However, they had trouble establishing the run with Mike Bell and Cedric Cobbs. Knowing this, they employed as much trickery, including a brilliantly executed reverse that resulted in a 72-yard TD. To counter Pittsburgh’s blitzing nature Denver rolled Plummer out often and successfully. They kept him on his feet, only allowing one sack, never getting picked, and collecting three touchdowns. The Raiders were more successful at containing Plummer, and the results showed in their previous match up. Still I don’t expect Denver to change their methods if the Raiders get pressure in the backfield.
The Raiders will once again have to be quick and disciplined to keep Denver’s running game in check. What they used against Denver the first time was fairly effective. But against Seattle, they made an average backup runner look like an all-pro. The bad news is that Denver will be trotting out two very average backups. Lord help us.
In the passing game Javon Walker looks like an updated version of Randy Moss. He’s got big legs (and yes ladies, glutes too) and doesn’t shy away from physical play. His hands are normally sure, and he makes all the plays Moss used to be known for. He will require both tight, possibly physical, coverage and a man spying over the top. Denver made use of a pump fake early to make Ike Taylor look remarkably like Fabian Washington on a double move for a TD. Someone will have to stay home and lay the lumber to Walker, who seems to be waking up since our last meeting with them.
The Raiders like any young, aggressive defense will have to stay disciplined to keep Denver’s offense in check. Their passing game is no longer as anemic as it was in the first meeting, but their running game has struggled a bit recently. Swarming to the ball is a great thing, and will probably be very necessary; however, the key will be making certain they’re swarming the ball and not a fake. Denver has been upping the number of fakes in their offense and improving their execution, yards, and touchdowns. Confidence is brimming on the offensive side of Denver locker room too, and they’re going to want to put the Raiders defense on their heels early to assist their defense in grinding the Raiders offense up.
Special Teams
Denver’s special teams are not special. If they get Darrent Williams back onto the field, I don’t know how much punishment he will be able to take. If he cannot return punts, they’re going to be below average in the return game. The Raiders have yet to get enough blocking and luck to spring Chris Carr, but the day they do, the entire team will get a lift from it, like they have from defensive scores. Paul Ernster is not a great kickoff specialist, but he does save Elam’s leg for field goals. Even in his specialty of punting, he is below average, despite spending half his time kicking a mile up. The advantage is definitely with the Raiders here.
Final Gun
Denver’s defense doesn’t like giving up points. This doesn’t bode well for a Raiders offense that doesn’t seem prepared to score them on a regular basis yet. (No need to change this line at all – just cut and paste from the first preview.)
Denver will probably find more success against the Raiders defense than they did in the first meeting. The Raiders offense will probably find more success against Denver’s banged-up defense than they did the first time too. Regardless of their incredible lack of consistency, I expect them to find some sort of rhythm against Denver, even a herky-jerky one would be better than what they had against Seattle.
Well, Denver is definitely going to score. The question remains whether the Raiders will. I personally believe they can, but it still comes down to what they will do. When the final gun sounds, I expect Denver to win 23 to 13.