Fourth and Long: AFC Preview
Matt McEwen on 07.19.2007
How will the 2007 season shake out in the AFC? Matt McEwen breaks down the conference and lets you know who is - and isn't - making the playoffs.
So I started out just wanting to make my playoff picks for the entire league. Once I started to pick the playoff teams though, I realized I had to defend why I thought some teams wouldn't be playoff teams as much as why I was picking the teams I was. So, this evolved into an entire conference preview for the AFC. I'll check in with the NFC next week, then name my Super Bowl pick the week after. So, settle in, grab a coffee, and enjoy......
AFC East
1. New England Patriots - DIVISION WINNER, 1st round bye
The off season was busier no where more so than in New England, where Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli uncharacteristically reached into owner Bob Kraft's deep pockets and bought the best free agent haul in team history. For a team that was one half away from yet another Super Bowl birth - and likely win - this should be what pushes them over the edge.
The high profile moves happened on offense, more specifically at wide receiver. A weak point after the early season trade of holdout Deion Branch, Tom Brady will now have multiple weapons at his disposal. The big addition is Randy Moss, late of the Oakland Raiders and they hope late of disinterest. Moss reportedly sees this move as a way to not only win a Super Bowl, but also to regain his reputation as a great receiver. With Moss, I don't know which one is more important to him, but either should be motivation for him to give 100% of whatever he has left in the tank. Even if Moss flops on or off the field, the Patriots have recharged the receiving corps with the talented and gritty Wes Welker, as well as the underrated Kelley Washington. Beyond the new faces, last years' six top receivers are back, meaning the passing game will be ok.
The running game will be altered from last season's successful formula though. Corey Dillon is gone, leaving the bulk of the workload to second year potential start Laurence Maroney. He had a 4.3 yard average on 175 carries last year, numbers that should improve if he is able to physically hold up to an entire season.
With all the talk of loading up the offense, the biggest off season move they made has kind of been ignored. Linebacker Adalius Thomas was added to revitalize a defense which had some problems late in games and seemed to tire as the season went on. They ranked fifth against the rush and twelfth against the pass, but there is definitely room for improvement. With offensive blockers having to pay a bit more attention to a linebacking corps that already features Rosevelt Colvin, Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi, the outstanding defensive line lead by Richard Seymour should be in line for a breakout year.
In the secondary, Asante Samuel may not have signed a long term deal, but rumblings out his camp are that he will report early in training camp to collect his guaranteed $7.2 million this year instead of risking injury and money by showing up late in the season. Even if Samuel holds out or is traded, Belichick has proven to be adept at patching together a passable secondary with less talent than he has on the roster this year. That being said, having Samuel in the fold for the full season is obviously the preferable result here.
Overall, the Patriots may very well have bought the accessories that will lead them to their fourth championship of the decade and are easily the class of the division.
2. New York Jets - not in the playoffs
Coach Eric Mangini leads a solid team into the season, but may be doomed to disappointment after last season's surprising trip to the playoffs.
Offensively their only major change to a team that ranked 25th overall in the league is the addition to yard eater Thomas Jones from the Bears. Jones fills a big weakness that the offense had last season, as he will be a reliable option to eat up time in the fourth quarter of close games. In spite of a couple of 1200 yard season with the Bears though, he is not a big play threat as his long run last year was only 30 yards. The move to a two back system for the Jets will be a big improvement though, as last years leading rusher Leon Washington will provide a nice change of pace to the bruising Jones.
The real key to the offense though is the duel receiving threats that QB Chad Pennington has at his disposal. The reliable and consistent Laveranues Coles now has big play threat Jerricho Cotchery lining up on the other side, and any defense that concentrates on one will likely be burned by the other. Pennington finally seems to be fully healthy and might be ready to stake claim to being a top 6 or 7 QB in the league. Having another year of experience added to his young and talented offensive line won't hurt either.
Defensively, Mangini has been hard at work making the Jets resemble the Patriots. There were a lot of doubts about how the Jets personnel would work in Mangini's schemes, but after ranking 6th in the league in points allowed despite being only 20th in yards allowed, the 'bend-but-don't-break" philosophy found solid success. With no major personnel changes on D, the continuity should only help.
I've almost talked myself into thinking the Jets can make it back to the playoffs, but I think their schedule should be their undoing. They have the 6th toughest schedule in the league, and open up at home against the Patriots, at Baltimore, host divisional rival Miami, head north to Buffalo, play the Giants, head to Philly, then host Cincinatti, Buffalo and Washington before their bye week. If they come out of that opening stretch at .500, I would be impressed.
3. Miami Dolphins - not in the playoffs
If you've been reading my past columns, you know that I think Miami is a team is disarray and could very well be one the worst run teams in the league at this point.
Their QB debacle is finally finished, as Daunte Culpepper is was released on the eve of his arbitration hearing which was set for Wednesday. Reports that a lot of veterans are unhappy with the way he has been treated aren't surprising, but have to worry new coach Cam Cameron.
Replacing Culpepper is 36 year old Trent Green, who lead some good statical teams in Kansas City but always had the benefit of an elite running back to take the pressure off the passing game. Coming of a career threatening concussion, Green goes from having workhorse Larry Johnson line up behind him to third year back Ronnie Brown who averaged only 15 carries per game last year. If Chris Chambers continues to regress from his 2005 Pro Bowl season it will be a long season for Dolphins fans.
The lone bright spot is the dominating defense the Dolphins continue to field. Elite players like Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas return to anchor the fourth ranked D from a year ago, only now they have even more help. Surprising Steeler castoff Joey Porter joins the linebacking corps and will probably be playing with more of a chip on his shoulder than usual. Along with the three superstars, a talented group of both youngsters and veterans return and will be the key to keeping the Dolphins close enough in most games that the anemic offense will have a chance to win one or two.
The Dolphins have a weak schedule to start, so they could break out and be the surprise of the early season but even if that does happen, they will crash to earth late in the season and be very lucky to make it to 7-9.
4. Buffalo Bills - definitely not in the playoffs
The fact that I think so lowly of the Dolphins and still rank them higher than the Bills should tell you all you need to know here. While the other teams in the division either got appreciably better (the Patriots), have a year of continuity and success to build on (the Jets) or at least made an effort to improve (the Dolphins), the Bills gutted their defense and are left trying to patch things together.
The team went 7-9 last season mostly on the strength of a defense that was in the top third of the league in points allowed, but traded Takeo Spikes away and lost starting CB Nate Clements and LB London Fletcher-Baker in free agency. The defense is simply not deep enough to replace three starters of that caliber. For that matter, I don't think too many teams in the league are.
On offense, JP Losman made a quantum leap last year and rewarded the faith they showed in him, They made some good moves in the off season loading up the offensive line, but unless first round pick Marshawn Lynch develops into a threat quickly, it could be a season of regression for Losman. Beyond Lee Evans, there isn't a deep threat on the team. While former RB Willis McGahee only managed 3.8 yards per carry last year, he was a big play threat that teams had to plan for.
On top of the defensive upheaval that will likely be enough to knock the Bills down a notch, they have the toughest schedule in the league to boot. It's not impossible that they will be the last team in the league to get their first win. If Losman continues to improve though, and they work had to patch the holes they now have on the defense, this could be a solid team in 2008.
cont'd...