In light of Russell signing, I was wondering this and decided to look at the numbers over time.
I could only find game logs dating back to 1995, so prior to that, I couldn't quite tell when exactly QBs got their first starts. Hence, I separated the pools into 1995-onward and prior to 1995. I only looked at first-round quarterbacks because I think it is different with them considering the financial implications of being a first-round pick, the pressure on an organization to play a first-rounder and the pressure on the quarterbacks themselves from being in such high-profile and scrutinized positions.
Since the merger in 1970, counting the Russell/Quinn draft, there have been 75 quarterbacks taken in the first round. 16, including Russell, were chosen first overall. The statistical analysis below, of course, does not include Quinn and Russell, nor does it incorporate still-developing 2007 statistics. All figures are as of the end of the 2006 season.
The passer ratings below are averages in wholes, not cumulative. For example, if QB A's rating was 50 and QB B's rating was 100, the average would be 75, regardless of how many passes led to each's respective rating. The point of doing it like this is to get a composite of these quarterbacks as a whole and not to lump things together. Basically, if a guy was really bad, he was really bad. And if he was really good, he was really good. This takes each side of the coin into account.
Here's what I found:
Of the 29 first-rounders since 1995:
• 10 had their first starts before Week 5 of their rookie seasons (Vince Young, Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, David Carr*, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch*, Peyton Manning*, Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller) and their average career passer rating is 69.8
• 12 had their first starts in or after Week 5 of their rookie seasons (Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith*, Eli Manning*, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Michael Vick*, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Steve McNair, Kerry Collins) and their average career passer rating is 73.9
• 6 had their first starts after their actual rookie seasons (Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers, J.P. Losman, Carson Palmer*, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper) and their average career passer rating is 86
- 2 had their first starts entirely after their first two seasons (Rivers, Pennington) and their average career passer rating is 89.9
- 1 has not started yet (Aaron Rodgers)
* - First overall pick
There, the numbers seem to suggest that indeed it does help a QB to wait. And the longer the better. However, it's also possible that had a Carr, for example, waited for a couple years in Houston, his career might be thought of as somewhat the same to this point because the overall team simply wasn't that much improved over the course of the few years at the beginning of his career. But we'll never know that for certain.
Careers beginning prior to '95 were more tricky to analyze because I couldn't find out when they started. Therefore I went with mere games played during rookie seasons. This isn't as scientific, but it's the best I could do.
Of the 44 first-round quarterbacks taken from 1970 to 1994:
• 14 played in at least 3/4 of their team's games their rookie years (Drew Bledsoe*, Rick Mirer, Tommy Maddox, Jeff George*, Tony Eason, Steve Fuller, Richard Todd, Steve Bartkowski*, John Reaves, Jim Plunkett*, Archie Manning, Dan Pastorini, Terry Bradshaw*, Mike Phipps) and had an average career passer rating of 68.2
• 9 played in 1/2 to 3/4 of their team's games their rookie years (Heath Shuler, Troy Aikman*, John Elway*, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino, Jack Thompson, Phil Simms, Doug Williams, Bert Jones) and had an average career passer rating of 74.7
• 8 played in 1/4 to 1/2 of their team's games their rookie years (Trent Dilfer, Vinny Testaverde*, Kelly Stouffer, Jim Harbaugh, Jim Everett, Jim McMahon, Tommy Kramer, Jerry Tagge) and had an average career passer rating of 69
• 12 played in 1/4 or less of their team's games their rookie years (David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Chris Miller, Chuck Long, Todd Blackledge, Art Schlichter, Rich Campbell, Marc Wilson, Mark Malone, Steve Pisarkiewicz) and had an average career passer rating of 58.9
• 1 (Jim Kelly) was drafted into the NFL in 1983 but first started an NFL game in 1986, when he played in all 16 games, launching a career passer rating of 84.4
* - First overall pick
My guess is that the reason for this confusing data from prior to 1995, and the salary cap roughly as we know it, is because coaches and organizations felt less pressure to rush their quarterbacks, and for that matter, felt less pressure to play them in the first place if they weren't any good.
When do you wanna see Russell under center for good?
I could only find game logs dating back to 1995, so prior to that, I couldn't quite tell when exactly QBs got their first starts. Hence, I separated the pools into 1995-onward and prior to 1995. I only looked at first-round quarterbacks because I think it is different with them considering the financial implications of being a first-round pick, the pressure on an organization to play a first-rounder and the pressure on the quarterbacks themselves from being in such high-profile and scrutinized positions.
Since the merger in 1970, counting the Russell/Quinn draft, there have been 75 quarterbacks taken in the first round. 16, including Russell, were chosen first overall. The statistical analysis below, of course, does not include Quinn and Russell, nor does it incorporate still-developing 2007 statistics. All figures are as of the end of the 2006 season.
The passer ratings below are averages in wholes, not cumulative. For example, if QB A's rating was 50 and QB B's rating was 100, the average would be 75, regardless of how many passes led to each's respective rating. The point of doing it like this is to get a composite of these quarterbacks as a whole and not to lump things together. Basically, if a guy was really bad, he was really bad. And if he was really good, he was really good. This takes each side of the coin into account.
Here's what I found:
Of the 29 first-rounders since 1995:
• 10 had their first starts before Week 5 of their rookie seasons (Vince Young, Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, David Carr*, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch*, Peyton Manning*, Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller) and their average career passer rating is 69.8
• 12 had their first starts in or after Week 5 of their rookie seasons (Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith*, Eli Manning*, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Michael Vick*, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Steve McNair, Kerry Collins) and their average career passer rating is 73.9
• 6 had their first starts after their actual rookie seasons (Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers, J.P. Losman, Carson Palmer*, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper) and their average career passer rating is 86
- 2 had their first starts entirely after their first two seasons (Rivers, Pennington) and their average career passer rating is 89.9
- 1 has not started yet (Aaron Rodgers)
* - First overall pick
There, the numbers seem to suggest that indeed it does help a QB to wait. And the longer the better. However, it's also possible that had a Carr, for example, waited for a couple years in Houston, his career might be thought of as somewhat the same to this point because the overall team simply wasn't that much improved over the course of the few years at the beginning of his career. But we'll never know that for certain.
Careers beginning prior to '95 were more tricky to analyze because I couldn't find out when they started. Therefore I went with mere games played during rookie seasons. This isn't as scientific, but it's the best I could do.
Of the 44 first-round quarterbacks taken from 1970 to 1994:
• 14 played in at least 3/4 of their team's games their rookie years (Drew Bledsoe*, Rick Mirer, Tommy Maddox, Jeff George*, Tony Eason, Steve Fuller, Richard Todd, Steve Bartkowski*, John Reaves, Jim Plunkett*, Archie Manning, Dan Pastorini, Terry Bradshaw*, Mike Phipps) and had an average career passer rating of 68.2
• 9 played in 1/2 to 3/4 of their team's games their rookie years (Heath Shuler, Troy Aikman*, John Elway*, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino, Jack Thompson, Phil Simms, Doug Williams, Bert Jones) and had an average career passer rating of 74.7
• 8 played in 1/4 to 1/2 of their team's games their rookie years (Trent Dilfer, Vinny Testaverde*, Kelly Stouffer, Jim Harbaugh, Jim Everett, Jim McMahon, Tommy Kramer, Jerry Tagge) and had an average career passer rating of 69
• 12 played in 1/4 or less of their team's games their rookie years (David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Chris Miller, Chuck Long, Todd Blackledge, Art Schlichter, Rich Campbell, Marc Wilson, Mark Malone, Steve Pisarkiewicz) and had an average career passer rating of 58.9
• 1 (Jim Kelly) was drafted into the NFL in 1983 but first started an NFL game in 1986, when he played in all 16 games, launching a career passer rating of 84.4
* - First overall pick
My guess is that the reason for this confusing data from prior to 1995, and the salary cap roughly as we know it, is because coaches and organizations felt less pressure to rush their quarterbacks, and for that matter, felt less pressure to play them in the first place if they weren't any good.
When do you wanna see Russell under center for good?
