So now the REAL season begins.

Crow

This is the way.
Joined
Sep 7, 2005
Messages
138,847
Reaction score
149,427
If we keep playing the way we've been playing, we're a mortal lock for a top 5 pick. But, unfortunately, with regards to the #1 overall pick, we do not control our own destiny. We did, however, get a boost by way of our entire division losing this week. That will drop our strength of schedule down a little and give us a better shot at winning that particular tiebreaker.

Let's take a look at the competition.

The Miami Dolphins (0-8) remain winless, and they're just not playing good football in any phase of the game. They may be the only team in the league that can relate to what we're going through. Poor coaching, aging stars, lackluster talent...they've got it all. The upside here is that, since they're on their bye week, they didn't get to add to their loss total.


The St. Louis Rams (0-8), like the Dolphins, are winless and enjoying their bye week. This team was on no one's radar when it came to teams competing for that first overall draft pick. But, here they are. No wins, eight losses. Injuries have destroyed this team's season. But the overall talent on this team dictates that they'll have to win a few games by season's end. Pro Bowl veterans all over the offense. Something has to give. Unlike the Dolphins, the rams are not a threat to Tampa Bay's perfect season.


The New York Jets (1-8) are the first team on this list to have actually tasted victory. Evidently, it tasted like shit because they haven't won since. Oh so close on Sunday, only to lose in overtime to the less-than-stellar Washington Redskins. The good news? Kellen Clemons looks like a football player. There are some pretty good WRs in place, along with a couple of nice RBs. Leon Washington doubles as Devin Hester Lite on STs, giving the Jets two potentially competent units. There is little doubt that, with Chad Pennington finally on the sideline, the Jets are a team fully capable of playing themselves out of contention.


The Atlanta Falcons (2-6), god bless 'em, managed to win another game. Granted, it was against the equally pitiful 49ers. But, a win is a win. One more and they'll be in our rear view mirror.


The San Francisco 49ers (2-6) are apparently the Patriots' biggest fans. New England owns this pick, and for now, it's looking like a top 5 pick. Like those bastards really need it. The 9er offense is pathetic. The defense isn't much better. Their schedule isn't exactly brutal in the second half of their season. But when you're this bad, it doesn't have to be. Winnable games include a homecoming game against St. Louis...who we'd really like to see win this game...road trips to Arizona and Carolina, and an upset possibility against the floundering Bengals in San Fran. Unless something amazing happens across the Bay, we'll be looking at strength of schedule statistics with the hopes of slipping past this piss poor organization.


The Cincinnati Bengals (2-6), speaking of the floundering felines, are a lot like the Rams in the sense that they are simply too talented to be playing this poorly. I don't know if "Black Jesus" has lost the team, or if Chuck Bresnahan is now doubling as the offensive coordinator. Regardless, this team is bound to win a couple games somewhere down the road. Looking at their schedule, they just happen to play three of the teams we're cheering for: St. Louis, San Fran, and Miami. Typical. But, this is one team we shouldn't have to worry about. They'll play themselves out of the race and hopefully drop a couple games to our new favorite teams in the process.


The Minnesota Vikings (3-5) won on Sunday and are now looking up at us in the draft order. If the man-child continues to shine, they should continue to slide back.



If we accidentally win another game, as preposterous as that seems right now, we're likely out of the race altogether and find ourselves bunched up with teams like the afore mentioned Vikings, the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, and Arizona Cardinals in a battle royal just to maintain our top 10 position.



There are few real jewels in this class, making draft position crucial. But there are a handful of players that really look like future studs. DTs like Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis. DE Chris Long, who is defying both logic and the scheme he plays in to put together a monster season. And, of course, Run DMc: Darren McFadden, who, by the way, rolled up well over 300 yards rushing this week. Yeah. Me too.

A top 5 pick all but assures us one of these outstanding athletes. While many will be clamoring for help across the offensive line, and rightfully so, the above mentioned players, in my humble opinion, are the superior prospects and would upgrade equally needy positions. The depth at OT this year (if the underclassmen do the right thing and declare) leads me to believe that we can find a good fit with our 2nd round pick.

Positions like WR, interior OL, SS, and OLB can be addressed in FA.

Speaking of, anyone have a link to next year's FAs? There's usually one floating around by now.
 
While many will be clamoring for help across the offensive line, and rightfully so, the above mentioned players, in my humble opinion, are the superior prospects and would upgrade equally needy positions. The depth at OT this year (if the underclassmen do the right thing and declare) leads me to believe that we can find a good fit with our 2nd round pick.

I agree the value is not on Oline if we are picking top 5, there just isn't a Robert Gallery in this class. :shakehead:

Didn't we spend this year's 3rd on Henderson? I could live with Dorsey or McFadden and an OT. I hate thinking about the draft this early in the season.
 
We certainly shouldn't be thinking about the playoffs, so...what else is there, other than getting our young bucks on the field now that we're fucked for the year.
 
We're not going to get the #1 pick, not that I want it anyway, but top-5 seems almost assured IMO.

Frankly, with all the obvious holes, and the fact that we have our 'Franchise QB' in place, I'd trade that pick down, however, Glen Dorsey would be hard to pass on if he's sitting there when we pick....

Losing sucks.
 
It seems difficult to get the #1 pick, btu we still would waste it. We have asto admit, we are not good drafting players, otherwise we shouldva more talent in the roster with those many picks we got after the SB.

It's time for the Raiders to rethink his strategy and realize they're better bringing up second hand players.

Russell's outa field cos he is not ready is a very bad sign he ain't that good. Other's had to jump in early and got the experience, even if the price was high.

I don't think we need a lot of personnel, but more than anything, we do need a new OL. That means five players.
 
We certainly shouldn't be thinking about the playoffs, so...what else is there, other than getting our young bucks on the field now that we're fucked for the year.

Just because it's the only thing on the menu doesn't mean I have to like it.
 
The Miami Dolphins (0-8) -- Probably won't take McFadden. Might take Long or Dorsey. Could take a QB.

The St. Louis Rams (0-8) -- Almost a lock to take Dorsey, I would think.

The New York Jets (1-8) -- Probably won't take Dorsey. Could take McFadden.

The Atlanta Falcons (2-6) -- This has Woodson/Brohm written all over it.

Pats via San Francisco (2-6) -- God-damnit! You know as well as I do what they will do. Turn the top-5 pick into 30 more picks by trading down a hundred times. No way to know what the team trading up will get, though I think someone would trade up for a QB.

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) -- With Rudi breaking down, a definite threat to take McFadden or defense.
 
Gracias, man. Wish I would have had this before going the NFLPA route.
 
Doubt NYJ go RB since they tied up a decent amount in trading for Jones. Their pass D has been atrocious.
 
The Miami Dolphins (0-8) -- Probably won't take McFadden.
I said the same thing about New Orleans and Reggie Bush, IIRC.

Pats via San Francisco (2-6) -- God-damnit! You know as well as I do what they will do. Turn the top-5 pick into 30 more picks by trading down a hundred times. No way to know what the team trading up will get, though I think someone would trade up for a QB.
Or, they could move up and take McFadden to pair with Maroney. How fucked would that be?
 
I dunno, the Dolphins D is aging and needs some help, though NO D wasn't much better. I really don't know that they go after McFadden, though Bush/Saints thing kinda makes one leery.
 
If we keep playing the way we've been playing, we're a mortal lock for a top 5 pick. But, unfortunately, with regards to the #1 overall pick, we do not control our own destiny. We did, however, get a boost by way of our entire division losing this week. That will drop our strength of schedule down a little and give us a better shot at winning that particular tiebreaker.

Let's take a look at the competition.

The Miami Dolphins (0-8) remain winless, and they're just not playing good football in any phase of the game. They may be the only team in the league that can relate to what we're going through. Poor coaching, aging stars, lackluster talent...they've got it all. The upside here is that, since they're on their bye week, they didn't get to add to their loss total.


The St. Louis Rams (0-8), like the Dolphins, are winless and enjoying their bye week. This team was on no one's radar when it came to teams competing for that first overall draft pick. But, here they are. No wins, eight losses. Injuries have destroyed this team's season. But the overall talent on this team dictates that they'll have to win a few games by season's end. Pro Bowl veterans all over the offense. Something has to give. Unlike the Dolphins, the rams are not a threat to Tampa Bay's perfect season.


The New York Jets (1-8) are the first team on this list to have actually tasted victory. Evidently, it tasted like shit because they haven't won since. Oh so close on Sunday, only to lose in overtime to the less-than-stellar Washington Redskins. The good news? Kellen Clemons looks like a football player. There are some pretty good WRs in place, along with a couple of nice RBs. Leon Washington doubles as Devin Hester Lite on STs, giving the Jets two potentially competent units. There is little doubt that, with Chad Pennington finally on the sideline, the Jets are a team fully capable of playing themselves out of contention.


The Atlanta Falcons (2-6), god bless 'em, managed to win another game. Granted, it was against the equally pitiful 49ers. But, a win is a win. One more and they'll be in our rear view mirror.


The San Francisco 49ers (2-6) are apparently the Patriots' biggest fans. New England owns this pick, and for now, it's looking like a top 5 pick. Like those bastards really need it. The 9er offense is pathetic. The defense isn't much better. Their schedule isn't exactly brutal in the second half of their season. But when you're this bad, it doesn't have to be. Winnable games include a homecoming game against St. Louis...who we'd really like to see win this game...road trips to Arizona and Carolina, and an upset possibility against the floundering Bengals in San Fran. Unless something amazing happens across the Bay, we'll be looking at strength of schedule statistics with the hopes of slipping past this piss poor organization.


The Cincinnati Bengals (2-6), speaking of the floundering felines, are a lot like the Rams in the sense that they are simply too talented to be playing this poorly. I don't know if "Black Jesus" has lost the team, or if Chuck Bresnahan is now doubling as the offensive coordinator. Regardless, this team is bound to win a couple games somewhere down the road. Looking at their schedule, they just happen to play three of the teams we're cheering for: St. Louis, San Fran, and Miami. Typical. But, this is one team we shouldn't have to worry about. They'll play themselves out of the race and hopefully drop a couple games to our new favorite teams in the process.


The Minnesota Vikings (3-5) won on Sunday and are now looking up at us in the draft order. If the man-child continues to shine, they should continue to slide back.



If we accidentally win another game, as preposterous as that seems right now, we're likely out of the race altogether and find ourselves bunched up with teams like the afore mentioned Vikings, the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, and Arizona Cardinals in a battle royal just to maintain our top 10 position.



There are few real jewels in this class, making draft position crucial. But there are a handful of players that really look like future studs. DTs like Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis. DE Chris Long, who is defying both logic and the scheme he plays in to put together a monster season. And, of course, Run DMc: Darren McFadden, who, by the way, rolled up well over 300 yards rushing this week. Yeah. Me too.

A top 5 pick all but assures us one of these outstanding athletes. While many will be clamoring for help across the offensive line, and rightfully so, the above mentioned players, in my humble opinion, are the superior prospects and would upgrade equally needy positions. The depth at OT this year (if the underclassmen do the right thing and declare) leads me to believe that we can find a good fit with our 2nd round pick.

Positions like WR, interior OL, SS, and OLB can be addressed in FA.

Speaking of, anyone have a link to next year's FAs? There's usually one floating around by now.


I used to really get into this kind of stuff... but after watching Al flush these top picks down the toilet on guys like Gallery and Russell (don't bother), I don't look forward to the draft at all anymore. Why get your hopes up on a player when you know Al is going to pass on him....


... but a well researched post either way.
 
I said the same thing about New Orleans and Reggie Bush, IIRC.

I think you were a bit more adamant than "probably," actually.

But point taken. Much depends on Ronnie Brown's recovery and Cameron's evaluation of John Beck.
 
Kiff has some serious work to do personnel wise. Each coach that has come through the Al Davis revolving door has drafted players to fit their system (Callahan, Turner, Shell, Kiff) and none of the systems are the same. Turner and Shell weren't that far part as far as what they needed (big linemen, fast WR, pocket passer) But Kiff is nowhere near them (Zone blocking fast agile linemen, out-of the -pocket QB and, oh yeah, fast WR). We traded Moss and it's going to take a while to get 'his' guys in here. The ggod news is that he's not shy about trying folks out and cutting who does not, so he's at least making progress. Nothing vouchsafes this point more than our WR and QB options (4 of each on roster). Curry is a good #3 and Dwight at least gives them some speed, but Porter is out. Only JR fits the mold for the offense, though McCown would make a fine back-up.
 
We're not going to get the #1 pick, not that I want it anyway, but top-5 seems almost assured IMO.


Losing sucks.


ABSOLUTELY!! Whether we have the #1 overall pick or the #5 pick, we have to trade down to recover picks we lost in the last draft. Or sign Haynesworth or Allen and be happy.
 
ABSOLUTELY!! Whether we have the #1 overall pick or the #5 pick, we have to trade down to recover picks we lost in the last draft. Or sign Haynesworth or Allen and be happy.
Trade down? That's my vote. That is exactly what NE will do with SF's pick in round one.

As for Haynsworth and Allen forget about it. Both will be franchised or resigned. Guys like that don't grow on trees. They're both young and their respective teams aren't going to let them get away.

Trade down and get more good football players? Yeah what a concept. We won't.
 


THIS ONE includes future years as well...

The Miami Dolphins (0-8) -- Probably won't take McFadden. Might take Long or Dorsey. Could take a QB.

The St. Louis Rams (0-8) -- Almost a lock to take Dorsey, I would think.

The New York Jets (1-8) -- Probably won't take Dorsey. Could take McFadden.

The Atlanta Falcons (2-6) -- This has Woodson/Brohm written all over it.

Pats via San Francisco (2-6) -- God-damnit! You know as well as I do what they will do. Turn the top-5 pick into 30 more picks by trading down a hundred times. No way to know what the team trading up will get, though I think someone would trade up for a QB.

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) -- With Rudi breaking down, a definite threat to take McFadden or defense.


I think we'll win a few more and finish in the 10-12 spot somewhere, but as it stands I think it goes something like this:

1) Miami: Glenn Dorsey

2) St Louis: Jake Long

3) NYJ: Chris Long

4) Atlanta: Matt Ryan

5) New England (from SF): Malcom Jenkins
If they hold true to form, they'll tell Asante Samuel to choke on that Nate Clements type contract and pick an absolute stud prospect up to replace him...

6) Cincy: Calais Campbell

7) Oakland: McFadden? Kenny Phillips?

I wouldn't be adverse to McFadden, but I would prefer to trade down and grab either Quentin Groves or Dan Conner myself and switch to a 34 defense... As for McFadden, I don't think he'll be as highly rated as Peterson...
 
Back
Top