Rookie Of The Year....

[Angry Pope]

Rookie of the year pick: Pack's Jackson

Vinny Iyer

August 6, 2007


Fans and players alike have complained about the length of the NFL's preseason, and more specifically, the duration of training camp and the number of exhibition games played. But one of the more exciting developments in the thorough process is the progress of rookies.


Rookies are more than the next class of potential league-wide stars; they represent the annual hope that any team has the chance to enjoy a quick turnaround with a good draft.

The Saints used a great draft to boost themselves last season, especially on offense, where running back Reggie Bush, wide receiver Marques Colston and guard Jahri Evans become key contributors.

Looking at some other '06 NFL playoff teams, the Colts (Joseph Addai), Bears (Devin Hester), Patriots (Laurence Maroney), Chargers (Marcus McNeill), Chiefs (Tamba Hali), Ravens (Haloti Ngata) and Jets (D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold, Leon Washington) were all helped significantly by rookies. That's not including the promise that Vince Young, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jay Cutler, A.J. Hawk, Matt Leinart, Vernon Davis and DeMeco Ryans showed for non-playoff teams.

So the 2007 rookie class has a difficult act to follow, but it can hold its own talent-wise with several intriguing offensive skill players and playmaking defenders leading the way.

On to the big question: Before the season kicks off, who are the best bets to succeed Young and Ryans as respective offensive and defensive rookies of the year? Of course, we're talking football, so let's rank them 1-11 on each side of the ball.

Today, I'll throw out my 11-deep offense. I'll come back to tackle the rookie defenders on Wednesday.

1. Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers. Other than talent, a rookie needs immediate opportunities to make a huge impact. No one in the '07 offensive class has a better opportunity to see the ball 20 times a game right from Week 1 than Jackson.

Jackson's main competition, Vernand Morency, has a knee injury that seems to be only getting worse in reports. Jackson also has been a quick learner in the passing game -- albeit much quicker as a pass-catcher than as a blocker -- to go with the fine running skills that got him selected in late Round 2. That should keep him on the field often to take advantage of both the Packers' favorable zone-blocking scheme and receiver-friendly formations.

More on that pass-blocking: The concern is natural with any rookie back, and Jackson will improve with time. Green Bay also has finished among the top five in fewest sacks allowed in each of the past four years. Its offensive system is efficient in keeping Brett Favre upright; he was sacked 21 times on his league-leading 613 attempts last season.

2. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills. I liked Jackson a little more than Lynch at draft time, but overall, they are similarly built and similarly versatile. Lynch also has a similar opportunity to be featured in Buffalo's backfield, but the Bills have more alternatives, including Dick Jauron favorite Anthony Thomas and another rookie, Dwayne Wright. Green Bay will be more balanced and more competitive, so Jackson gets more touches in an important role in the second half of games.

3. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions. Jon Kitna is talking big at the controls of Mike Martz's offense, and it's true the combination of Roy Williams and Johnson streaking downfield creates a nightmare matchup for every secondary. I can see Johnson easily breaking out for something like 1,200 yards and eight scores, but it's hard to expect more because: A) Williams will be the No. 1 receiver for at least one more year; b) 93-catch man Mike Furrey won't be forgotten in the slot; and c) Kitna will not be having "50 TDs" to throw around. Remember, the Lions gave up 63 sacks and gave up the ball 39 times last season -- those numbers tend to mess with the true output of a passing game.

4. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings. Peterson was drafted like he was the best running back in this class and will prove that to be true; it just may not happen this year. Because both he and incumbent Chester Taylor tend to get banged up, it's better for both backs and the team if Peterson and Taylor help keep each other rested, especially to help out a passing game led by a developing Tarvaris Jackson. I expect Peterson to reel off some big runs if he stays healthy, but the consistent top-flight back will come only in '08.

5. Zach Miller, TE, Raiders. Most of the rookie tight end buzz has been about the Bears' Greg Olsen and his phenomenal athleticism. But again, it comes down to the opportunity to showcase yourself, and Miller, the best all-round rookie tight end, steps into what was previously a Black Hole at his position in Oakland. In Lane Kiffin's version of the West Coast offense, the tight end option will be key, and considering the shaky durability of the team's wide receivers and either newcomer at quarterback, Daunte Culpepper or JaMarcus Russell, needing to lean on a security blanket, Miller is bound to be very busy in the passing game.

6. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs. Bowe will have a good chance to start at wide receiver opposite veteran Eddie Kennison. What's likely to hold him back from breaking the top five is the uncertainty at quarterback and a conservative offense that leans heavily on the running game. Where Bowe can make his mark with his 6-2, 217-pound frame, is playing off Kennison on the perimeter and tight end Tony Gonzalez down the seam to emerge as a big possession/red zone threat.

7. Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings. We already know Peterson has an unproven quarterback; his supporting cast at wide receiver isn't established, either. Troy Williamson must break out of his two-year funk, and Bobby Wade is a journeyman. That keeps the door open for Rice to be a perimeter starter. The key will be Rice developing a good rookie/first-year starter rapport with Tarvaris Jackson. Rice's production probably will be too sporadic, however, in an unfavorable situation the opposite of Calvin Johnson's.

8. Craig Davis, WR, Chargers. San Diego's offense has proved to be prolific with the combination of LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates; it's just waiting for a wide receiver to complete the quartet. All eyes are on big third-year man Vincent Jackson to be that threat. But with his speed and a 6-1, 202-pound frame that nicely complements the 6-5, 242-pound Jackson, Davis is one to watch. And now a great opportunity is knocking in camp as starter Eric Parker misses 10 days with a toe injury. If Davis starts all season, he is the sneaky bet to be the No. 2 rookie receiver producer behind Johnson.

9. Steve Smith, WR, Giants. It's been tough for Smith to get into the spotlight. At Southern California, Dwayne Jarrett was the marquee wide receiver. In the NFL, he's about to be known as that other wide receiver named Steve Smith -- the "original" just happens to be Jarrett's teammate in Carolina. But so far Smith is doing in camp what 2006 draftee Sinorice Moss couldn't do last year -- dazzle in every which way as the spark at No. 3 receiver the Giants so desperately need. Smith is making a strong case to be on the field often, and with 33-to-be Amani Toomer coming off a knee injury, Smith may get his share of big-play chances opposite Plaxico Burress.

10. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts. The former Ohio State star, with his combination of smarts, quickness and route-running, is the ideal receiver to work out of the slot along with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. It's not totally out of the question, then, that Gonzalez produces like Brandon Stokley did (1,007 yards, 10 TDs) in the No. 3 role in 2004. The Colts are expected to use more three-wide than they did in '06, but it's unclear who will be the busier No. 3 option, Gonzalez or top tight end Dallas Clark.

11. Kenneth Darby, RB, Buccaneers. Because of what Colston did last season, I figured I should throw in a seventh-round flier here just in case. Darby is fighting for a reserve job behind Cadillac Williams, the '05 rookie of the year. Williams, however, had a nagging foot injury that contributed to a sophomore slump last season, and the questions about his ability to handle a full load have reverted to when he was splitting time with Ronnie Brown in college. Darby has a long way to go for even having a chance, as he's currently the No. 3 behind Williams' backup, Michael Pittman, but what do you expect? This is supposed to be a long shot.

 

[Angry Pope]

Here are the defensive ones. It doesn't have any of ours but it completes the article so I posted it...

Rookie of the year pick II: Bills' Posluszny

August 8, 2007


On Tuesday, I picked Packers running back Brandon Jackson from a pool of 11 strong candidates to win 2007 NFL offensive rookie of the year.


Today, as promised, I'm handicapping the race for defensive rookie of the year. Looking back, the award has gone to a linebacker in six of the past seven years, including Texans middle man DeMeco Ryans in 2006.

Ryans stood out on a young, rebuilding defense. He also was a second-round draft pick who played better than all of the '06 first-rounders, including his teammate at end, Mario Williams, the first overall pick by the Texans.

Ryans joined former Steeler Kendrell Bell as only the second second-rounder to win the award in the past 20 years. Typically, the winner comes out of the first half of the first round.

In general, considering writers are voting on this, top rookie defenders come from one of three positions with tangible stats -- defensive end/outside linebacker (sacks), middle linebacker (tackles) or defensive back (interceptions).

Weighing opportunity, talent and situation, I went with someone for '07 who fits Ryans' profile -- that is, another second-round pick who will be in position to make plenty of tackles on another young, rebuilding defense.

1. Paul Posluszny, MLB, Bills. While watching several Big Ten games the past few years, I always was impressed by Posluszny's performances at Linebacker U. Unfortunately, in the draft, many teams were worried about his future durability after his season-ending knee injury in 2005 instead of being encouraged by his combination of work ethic and smarts.

In camp, Posluszny has quickly settled into the job formerly held by London Fletcher-Baker; he's excelled at getting to and wrapping up ballcarriers, despite still working his way back to full speed. When Dick Jauron was head coach in Chicago, he found magic with Brian Urlacher (rookie of the year in '00) in the middle. Jauron should be thrilled that Posluszny is a Bill.

2. Jamaal Anderson, DE, Falcons. Atlanta once overused the "Dirty Bird" with running back Jamal Anderson, so if this Jamaal Anderson delivers as expected as a pass rusher, he'll need to be more creative with his sack dance. Crucial to Anderson's hopes of racking up sacks is John Abraham staying healthy at the team's other end position. If the veteran J.A. can stay on the field and draw attention, it will open up things for the rookie J.A. to get to quarterbacks more easily.

3. Gaines Adams, DE, Buccaneers. As soon as Adams was officially signed and delivered to Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 defense, out went Simeon Rice. It will be hard for Adams to burst on the scene like Rice did as a rookie with the Cardinals in 1996 (12.5 sacks), especially if Adams starts on the right side and must consistently face left tackles. Still, Adams is a gifted-enough pass rusher for a team that desperately needs just that, and he could get 8-10 sacks with enough reps on both sides of the line.

4. LaRon Landry, S, Redskins. Landry's brother, Dawan, benefits nicely from lining up next to former Miami star Ed Reed in Baltimore, and across the Beltway, LaRon will get settled while playing off another former Miami star, Sean Taylor. LaRon is better all-around than Dawan, however, and can produce better than Taylor, too. The younger Landry has the speed, quickness and toughness to make plays all over the field (either up front to deliver hits/tackles or down back to cover receivers), whereas Taylor is a bit more flashy in that he's always looking to "jack up" opponents.

5. Patrick Willis, ILB, 49ers. The only thing keeping Willis fifth on this list and not as high as second is that his initial impact may come from time in subpackages on passing downs while he battles for a job in San Francisco's regular 3-4 defense. He's fast and rangy enough to make a ton of plays on ballcarriers and the ball. The four rookies ahead of him just happen to step into more favorable situations to become immediate starters, and Posluszny gets the edge at linebacker for becoming his team's lone middle man in a 4-3.

6. Reggie Nelson, S, Jaguars. The Jags finally said bye to Donovin Darius, which puts Nelson into the team's most important safety role. Jacksonville needed some life and younger, fresher legs at the position, and, considering how Nelson consistently delivered plays for the Florida Gators, he can do more than the hard-hitting that was Darius' trademark. Nelson also can help the team produce more takeaways and make it even stronger against the run.

7. Jon Beason, OLB, Panthers. Carolina needed a prototypical weakside linebacker, and it landed one. Now that he's all signed and good to go, Beason can help out the Panthers significantly with his ability to make plays either upfield (vs. quarterbacks and the run) or downfield (in coverage).

8. David Harris, ILB, Jets. Before training camp, I thought cornerback Darrelle Revis would be the most important Jets defensive rookie. But with Revis still mired in a holdout as of Tuesday evening, I'm turning to their fine second-round pick, who now has the better chance of starting come Week 1. Just as it is with the Patriots, the play of the four linebackers is integral to Eric Mangini's defense. With Bryan Thomas, Jonathan Vilma and Victor Hobson established as the other three starters, Harris will be able to get into the flow nicely.

9. Chris Houston, CB, Falcons. While Atlanta already has one blazer at the position in DeAngelo Hall, its struggles to find another playmaking corner contributed to the team finishing 29th against the pass last season. Houston has the skills to be that complementary corner; he just needs to refine them. On another team, he might be a backup, but he's stepped into a situation where he can make plays right away against No. 2 wide receivers.

10. Eric Wright, CB, Browns. Cleveland has one solid cover corner in Leigh Bodden, and Wright has wasted no time in establishing himself as the team's best starting option on the other side. Like Houston, the key for Wright is melding his explosive athleticism with sound coverage techniques. He likely will be tested often as teams throw away from Bodden, so the chances will be there for him to be physical and aggressive and go after interceptions.

11. Alan Branch, DT, Cardinals. Like Posluszny and Wright, Branch is a second-round selection with first-round talent. For Branch, though, instead of past injuries or past off-the-field questions, the concern that dropped him into the second round was about his lack of motivation. He's taken that knock personally and is working hard to be the Cardinals' starting nose tackle in their new 3-4 defense.

Branch has the run-stopping skills to be what Casey Hampton is to current Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt's old team, the Steelers: a two-gap force. Branch's campaign will be based on how high Arizona moves up against the run from its No. 16 rank in '06.