Roll dice, A.J., Brees worth the crapshoot

Angel

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Roll dice, A.J., Brees worth the crapshoot

February 22, 2006

The Chargers are at a high-stakes craps table. So they should put their chips on the pass line. Drew Brees is worth the wager.

It's house money, but what General Manager A.J. Smith does with the Spanos millions he's allotted is his business. It's Smith's football team to run, and thus far he's done a pretty damn good job of it.

But I know a little about football, and part of what little I know is that quarterbacks are valuable – especially good ones. Allowing a 27-year-old Pro Bowler to walk – and getting nothing in return – makes no sense. Unless there's more behind it.

I have a feeling there is. And, I don't believe Smith, who doesn't exactly have an Edward VIII-Wallis Simpson relationship with coach Marty Schottenheimer, is setting up his head coach to fail. That's idiotic, and Smith isn't an idiot.

Club President Dean Spanos has said he will be disappointed if his Chargers don't go deep into the playoffs next year. If they fail with untested QB Philip Rivers, will it be the coach's fault?

“I don't understand this focus on Coach Schottenheimer being set up to fail,” Smith says. “It's just talk, and I can't control talk. What about the general manager . . . if we don't win? Why is the focus on Marty Schottenheimer? If things don't go well, he's only one part of this.”

Given Smith's refusal to franchise or transition tag Brees, if a long-term deal isn't reached, Brees becomes a free agent March 3 and can shop himself. If he signs elsewhere, the Chargers get nothing, and that bothers the hell out of me. Why would a smart football man, a GM who cherishes good players, give away a smudged Faberge egg? Just because he likes Rivers?

Smith is worried about Brees' health, obviously, and the possibility of throwing money away. Brees, up to the 16th game of last season, was a known. I believe Rivers is going to excel, but quarterbacks are quarterbacks, so he's enigmatic until proved otherwise. But Brees has had surgery on his throwing shoulder, so there is mystery to him now, which is why the Chargers have offered him a contract loaded with incentives rather than the $9.7 million price tag.

Teams offer untested rookies millions in signing bonuses. Why not a proven QB? Someone will take a chance on Brees. Why not the Chargers? He won't get $10 million from another team without it knowing the status of his throwing condition. But Brees is a Charger. He's one of their own. He's a leader, an ambassador. Smith habitually takes care of his own – ones he admires.

There is deep concern about Brees' injury. It's difficult to sign a quarterback when you don't know if he will recover. Brees says he's ahead of schedule. But when can he throw? May? June?

“We've had our medical people monitoring the situation,” is all Smith will say, other than he's “concerned.”

Big, important if: Does Smith really want Brees to be his starting quarterback? Does he believe he's gone as far as he can with Brees behind center? Is there more upside with Rivers?

“Is it Drew Brees, or a combination of Drew Brees and our football team?” Smith asks. “It's debatable.”

Read into his John Ford script what you will. Smith did not draft Brees. He did trade for Rivers on draft day. And GMs like to see their people play, which is why Smith was said to be perturbed with Schottenheimer when Rivers didn't start the final, meaningless game of 2005. So Brees got hurt that day, and now Smith is sitting with cactus under his butt, a rock on one side of him, a hard place on the other.

Eventually, it had to happen after Rivers was drafted and Brees came up big. One of them would have to go. But this soon? Guaranteed, they wanted another year out of Brees – because, if he's healthy, 2006 is better than it would be without him.

Once again, we're not dealing with morons. Smith is in business to win. But if he expects to make the playoffs, it's going to be more difficult with Rivers, no matter what the GM concocts with free agency and the draft.

“It looks like a very rocky road,” he admits.

Then why doesn't this club, which is on the edge of very good, one lobbying for a new stadium, one $25 million under the salary cap, take a $9.7 million gamble? I don't know if there are 10 good quarterbacks in The League – few great ones – so a Pro Bowler walks without compensation?

The Chargers are pointing to what sophomore QB Ben Roethlisberger did in Pittsburgh. The Steelers won Super Bowl XL in spite of him. No chance New England wins three championships without Tom Brady.

Sign Brees. If everything works out, trade one of the two. Brees has been a huge investment in time and money. Get something in return.

It all seems to go against Smith's philosophy: the more good players the better. But it also is in keeping with his John Wayne persona when negotiating with agents.

“I don't think it goes against my philosophy,” Smith says. “I want good players. But how can I keep this player here if we can't get a deal done?”

Easy. Hang up your six-shooter. Get off your horse. Gamble. Pro Bowl quarterbacks are worth the risk.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060222/news_1s22canepa.html
 
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