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Road Survival
Oct 06, 2006, 8:36:12 AM by Bob Gretz
It’s a scenario that gets played out every week of every NFL season with just about every team. A victory is acquired, one that has the team and its fans feeling pretty good. But the next week comes a stumble, a loss, and the importance of the previous victory is diminished.
That’s where the Chiefs sit right now. The big 41-0 victory over San Francisco is on the books. Everybody’s feeling better about the team, including the guys in the locker room. But if they don’t go to Arizona and beat the Cardinals on Sunday, beating the Niners meant nothing.
The Chiefs need to get to 2-2. Ahead of them are three very tough games at Pittsburgh and then at home against San Diego and Seattle. They can’t afford to give back the San Francisco victory by falling in the desert.
Complicating matters is the fact that he game is on the road, and as we’ve detailed several times in the last six months that away from home is where victories have been hard to come by for this franchise.
How hard? Since the turn of the century, the Chiefs have played 49 games away from Arrowhead Stadium. Their record is 18-31, or a winning percentage of .367.
How badly has that hamstrung the franchise? At Arrowhead, they’ve been 34-16, or a winning percentage of .680.
Herm Edwards has laid out the plan for this team above and beyond what the coordinators are putting in specifically for the Cardinals. It’s really highlighted by two major components.
The first is to grab control of the game in the first quarter. In other words, come out of the first 15 minutes with the lead.
The second factor is hold onto the ball. The turnover differential is huge in defining winning and losing on the road.
Let’s start with the first quarter. In those 49 road games (2000-2006) here’s the Chiefs record when they’ve held the lead at the end of the first quarter, were tied, or trailed:
That’s a winning percentage of .214 without a first quarter lead. Let’s take the numbers out to halftime:
It’s pretty stark evidence that the Chiefs problem on the road has been starting fast and getting a lead. As these numbers indicate, taking the first quarter or first half lead doesn’t guarantee victory, but it sure increases the chances of making it happen away from home.
The turnover ratio has always been a predictor of victory, especially when a team is on the road. Here are the Chiefs numbers over the 49 away games:
These numbers are not unusual; they reflect the rest of the league. It breaks down very simply: finish with a positive turnover ratio and a team has a better than even chance of winning on the road. Finish with a negative turnover ratio, and a team wins one out of 10 games.
The only two victories the Chiefs have managed over the last seven seasons on the road with a negative turnover ratio came in 2001 at Jacksonville when they beat the Jaguars 30-26 at minus-1 and in 2004 at Oakland, when they topped the Raiders 34-27, also at minus-1.
If the Chiefs are to turn around their moribund road record, they must stay in the game early and not give up the football.
The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2006/10/06/gretz_road_survival/
Oct 06, 2006, 8:36:12 AM by Bob Gretz
It’s a scenario that gets played out every week of every NFL season with just about every team. A victory is acquired, one that has the team and its fans feeling pretty good. But the next week comes a stumble, a loss, and the importance of the previous victory is diminished.
That’s where the Chiefs sit right now. The big 41-0 victory over San Francisco is on the books. Everybody’s feeling better about the team, including the guys in the locker room. But if they don’t go to Arizona and beat the Cardinals on Sunday, beating the Niners meant nothing.
The Chiefs need to get to 2-2. Ahead of them are three very tough games at Pittsburgh and then at home against San Diego and Seattle. They can’t afford to give back the San Francisco victory by falling in the desert.
Complicating matters is the fact that he game is on the road, and as we’ve detailed several times in the last six months that away from home is where victories have been hard to come by for this franchise.
How hard? Since the turn of the century, the Chiefs have played 49 games away from Arrowhead Stadium. Their record is 18-31, or a winning percentage of .367.
How badly has that hamstrung the franchise? At Arrowhead, they’ve been 34-16, or a winning percentage of .680.
Herm Edwards has laid out the plan for this team above and beyond what the coordinators are putting in specifically for the Cardinals. It’s really highlighted by two major components.
The first is to grab control of the game in the first quarter. In other words, come out of the first 15 minutes with the lead.
The second factor is hold onto the ball. The turnover differential is huge in defining winning and losing on the road.
Let’s start with the first quarter. In those 49 road games (2000-2006) here’s the Chiefs record when they’ve held the lead at the end of the first quarter, were tied, or trailed:
That’s a winning percentage of .214 without a first quarter lead. Let’s take the numbers out to halftime:
It’s pretty stark evidence that the Chiefs problem on the road has been starting fast and getting a lead. As these numbers indicate, taking the first quarter or first half lead doesn’t guarantee victory, but it sure increases the chances of making it happen away from home.
The turnover ratio has always been a predictor of victory, especially when a team is on the road. Here are the Chiefs numbers over the 49 away games:
These numbers are not unusual; they reflect the rest of the league. It breaks down very simply: finish with a positive turnover ratio and a team has a better than even chance of winning on the road. Finish with a negative turnover ratio, and a team wins one out of 10 games.
The only two victories the Chiefs have managed over the last seven seasons on the road with a negative turnover ratio came in 2001 at Jacksonville when they beat the Jaguars 30-26 at minus-1 and in 2004 at Oakland, when they topped the Raiders 34-27, also at minus-1.
If the Chiefs are to turn around their moribund road record, they must stay in the game early and not give up the football.
The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2006/10/06/gretz_road_survival/