Reason's for Optimism

RaiderIVlife

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It's hard to locate the silver lining when it's covered in grime, but alas, it must be done. Besides, who want's to read the continuous, albiet understandable, litany of complaints from fellow Raider Fans?

In the Big Picture, we are a very young team under development and many of our high priced aged veterans (Sapp, Crockett, Sims, Porter and Moss) will probably not be in Oakland next season so much of that money could/should go towards a more aggressive approach to FA in 2007.

But for now, I'll focus on the Immediate Picture and the positives I draw from this point are as follows:

1.) Offensive Line - As much as I and everyone else has harped on this unit this season, they have in fact improved each game. The game yesterday saw a unit that was actually worthy of an NFL paycheck. Not All-Pro, but competent and it was equally effective in Pass & Run blocking IMHO. Robert Gallery had by far his best game at LT, Jake Grove appears to be (belatedly) hitting his stride at Center as the communication within the line is clearly better, Kevin Boothe has nice size & strength and appears to be a real find. Langston Walker continues to struggle, but in all fairness I must point out that we seemed to run pretty well to the right side yesterday. Beyond that, young Paul McUgly is now pushing Walker for PT at RT. As I said, Not all pro, but the improvement is evident IMHO.

2.) Defensive Secondary - Granted, Michael Huff as yet has made no appreciable impact, but geez, it's only his 4th proffesional game. I'm not worried about Huff aside from his tendency to tackle high. On the other hand Nmandi Asomugah, Fabian Washington and even Stanford Routt are really solid, young, athletic and steadily improving at CB. Our drafting strategy in this area appears to be justified to this point. There is a reason that our opponents would rather run the ball than pass the ball and a big part of that reason is our secondary. Stuart Schweigert is OK, but might be better off as an experienced b/u safety in 2007 if the Raiders sign or draft a legit SS and move Huff to FS. Either way, this unit has tons of potential for years to come.

3.) Kirk Morrison - MLB - Mr. Raider that plays with intelligence and controlled aggression. He is already better than the since departed Danny Clark and figures to be a fixture on defense each & every week for years to come.

4.) Ronald Curry - WR & Sam Williams - OLB. Two very talented players that have been snake bitten by big injuries. I hesitate to even type this portion of my post, but oh well, they deserve to be mentioned. Ronald Curry is currently our best WR. Yes, I'm saying that with a straight face. He's our best WR, even though he isn't starting, even though the team is clearly limiting his reps and even though someone named Randy Moss is on our roster. Curry gets open and catches the football. Curry is effective in all three areas of the field (short - intermediate - deep) and most importantly, Curry plays his ass off. Health permitting, he will be the official starter before too long and but for the injury concerns, the Raiders would be far less reticent IMO to offload Porter & Moss.

Sam Williams has had his growing pains at OLB this year and even missed one game due to injury (unrelated to previous injuries BTW) but he has an excellent size/speed combination, plays hard and oh BTW, scored the Raiders first TD in 2006 - on defense no less. As is the case with Curry, if healthy, Williams will be a productive player each & every week and beyond.

5.) Sebastian Janokowski - K - Another player that I have criticized tremendously over the years, but he has entered 2006 in the best shape of his NFL life, is consistently hitting the kickoffs deep (save for the Cleveland game) and is 4/4 in FG attempts. I am now more confident in letting Seabass kick FG's than I am in this offensive unit converting first downs. Shit, the dude even made a TD saving tackle a couple of weeks ago.


6.) Andrew Walter - QB - I have never been a big supporter of Walter. I argued all offseason that Aaron Brooks should be the Raider starter, however, despite a QB rating that resembles a therometer in Siberia, I'm now looking forward to watching him develop. He moves much better in the pocket than expected and although is technically slower than Brooks, he plays faster. He has decent accuracy, but beyond that - and most importantly - he has the look, feel and demeanor of a "Leader". He takes responsibility for poor play, he stands TALL in the pocket, appears to be fearless and does NOT have happy feet. As the offensive line continues to improve, so will Walter. This guy should start the balance of our games in 2006 in preparation for 2007.
 
Great post, I agree 100%

I'll add a couple...

7) Terdell Sands: This guy is VERY good. He is big, strong and works hard to make plays. I loved his clotheline of Gore, and although I cant quantify it without watching all of our defensive plays, I would venture to guess that our run D is about 3 yards per carry better when he is in the middle (3YPC to 6YPC I bet)

8) Thomas Howard. Yeah I'm jonesing for the guy a bit, but he doesnt look nearly as lost as I expected as a rook coming from UTEP, and the guy is aggresive and fast. He is a definite keeper, IMO.
 
Honorable mention:

Justin Fargas is doing what he's done in his college and NFL career: 1 good year in 4. If he can stay healthy, he can be an every down back. But for the present he's a very good change-of-pace back.
 
Keep talking me down off the ledge. It's working.
 
You know, after that hit on Antonio Bryant, do we want Justin Fargas roaming centerfield? Teach that man to be a free safety so he can start blowing people up on a regular basis.
 
Rupert said:
You know, after that hit on Antonio Bryant, do we want Justin Fargas roaming centerfield? Teach that man to be a free safety so he can start blowing people up on a regular basis.

Didn't they try that at Michigan University when he was there?

I think we'll see Fargas a bit more each week and the Raiders are setting teams up perfectly with this Jordan inside & Fargas outside trend. Watch Fargas take one to the house with a between the tackle run. Jordan seems to have stepped up his game, the gaffe on the lateral pass play yesterday aside. Shit, our offense might even be competent by season's end if the O-line continues to improve and Walter get's more experience.....
 
Raiderfan007 said:
Great post, I agree 100%

Yeah, it was a great read with good points...

I wrote this for somewhere else, but I may as well put it here... I didn't burn out my spell check and waste my employers money doing personal stuff on company time for nothing you know...


Some perspective

Right now if Raider Nation were a hospital patient, they'd claim to be terminally ill and beg to be doped up or in some cases, beg for someone to pull the plug... Anything to take them out of their pain and misery... Is it justified?... Well, if one adds things up from the loss to Tampa in the Super Bowl up until yesterdays loss to San Francisco, that's an awful long time to live with the heart ache of losing... and of course, the collective joy the rest of the football world seems to feel over our anguish only serves to intensify the pain...

Looking past that total time frame of losing in which the Raiders have gone through, and into the here and now, Art Shell and company are doing exactly what alot of fans of the Raider Nation were screaming for the Raiders to do these past two years:

1) Play the young guys to see exactly what you've got in them
2) Get the salary cap under control and not take the credit card approach to free agency by continuing to throw money at past their prime 'name' free agents...

Sure with hindsight in full effect, it could be ascertained that this approach should have been taken when Bill Calahan was fired and Norv Turner hired... The old adage of not being able to put the toothpaste back in the tube certainly comes to mind here... It's of no real use to beat that particular 'shoulda' horse to death...

Besides, I don't care what some Raider fans are claiming now, the actually process of beginning to rebuild would not be palatable at any time... If we had blown things up a year removed from being in the Super Bowl, there would have been just as many fans questioning the sanity of not loading up to make another run at things after being so recently close, as there are now Raider fans questioning why we didn't blow it up back then... I've been posting on forums long enough to know that short of winning a Super Bowl, there is just no pleasing everyone... Some of the very same people adamant about not wanting to sign older free agents are the same people asking why we didn't sign so and so this past offseason... In fact, some do everything short of proclaim themselves brilliant when gazing into their magic 8-ball equipped with hindsight... Oddly, they are usually the same ones that have never picked a nag on their own boards on draft days... Funny how that works...


I was talking to an old coach of mine who also happens to be a Niner fan dating a long ways back... In between giving me the gas on how 'Oakland' is now spelled 'aklan' because there is no O or D being played by the Raiders, (you know you're in a bad way when the Senior Citizen faction starts talking smaque your way)... he pointed out how this years Raider team reminds him of the very first year that Bill Walsh took the head coaching job with the Niners...

The Niners had just gone through five head coaches in four years and were six years removed from their last competitive season... In Walsh's rookie year as head coach, he made a point to play the young guys he had and start the mental process of deciding who he needed to purge from the roster and who he could take the field with down the road...

Bill Walsh went 2-14 that first year... Other than a few game snaps, rookie 3rd round pick Joe Montana spent the entire year learning the playbook... The young guys took their lumps in what would be a long year...

The second year Walsh went 6-10... Montana split time with Steve Deberg and took his beatings and made his share of ill advised mistakes... Bad apples were removed from the roster and young vets and new draft picks continued to get valuable playing time and experience...

In year 3, Walsh went 13-3, won the Super Bowl and had successfully pulled a failed franchise from the gutter by it's lapels... Jimmy Johnson also went through a similar transformation after inheriting a mess from Tom Landry...


Now I'm not claiming Shell to be Walsh and I'm certainly not claiming Walter to be Montana... What I am pointing out is that you need to have a starting point, an established Ground Zero before you can make a concentrated effort to pick yourself off the ground... That we didn't do it after firing Bill Calahan is neither here nor there at this point... There's no sense harping or whining about it... Nor should the time spent in the Norv Turner tenure enter into the grading of Art Shell as the current head coach... Bill Parcells has always considered his first year rebuilding a new team a throw away season spent on implementing his own style and roster make up...

Instant gratification being what it is, I realize none of this is likely to make Raiderfan any more patient or take the sting of losing away... Of course, Art doesn't have the track record of rebuilding a franchise that would buy him the benefit of doubt that a Bill Parcells and Marty Shottenheimer would... but after taking a look at the age and experience level of the starting roster, I really believe Art should have the full year before Raiderfan casts his difinitive Yay or Nay vote:

OFFENSE
LT: Robert Gallery (Year 3)
LG: Barry Sims (8)
OC: Jake Grove (3)
RG: Kevin Boothe (1)
RT: Langston Walker (5)
TE: Courtney Anderson (3)
QB: Andrew Walter (2)
FB: Zach Crockett (12)
RB: Lamont Jordan (6)
WR: Randy Moss (9)
WR: Alvis Whitted (9)


DEFENSE
LE: Derrick Burgess (5)
DT: Warren Sapp (12)
DT: Tommy Kelly (3)
RE: Tyler Brayton (4)
OLB: Thomas Howard (1)
MLB: Kirk Morrison (2)
OLB: Sam Williams (4)
CB: Fabian Washington (2)
CB: Nnamdi Asomugha (4)
FS: Stuart Schweigert (3)
SS: Mike Huff (1)


16 out of the 22 listed starters have 5 years or less experience, 11 of 22 three years or less... More than half are first year starters at their current position...

That's an awful lot of young guys we're fielding out there... Moreso when Paul McQuistan(1) and Ronald Curry(4) on offense and Terdell Sands(4)and Stanford Routt(2)on defense are factored into the equation.... Now some of those young guys (Walker, Schweigert, Kelly to name a few)appear to be better utilized as depth rather than starters, but the nucleus is getting thrown out there to play and grow into their future roles with the team... Prior to next year, it's a sure bet that quite a few will be purged from the roster either due to age (Crockett, Sapp), cost (Moss), ability (Walker) or attitude (Porter), hopefully replaced by free agents or draft picks that are deemed good fits... Maybe we'll even see some assistants washed out (Walsh, Biletnikoff, Shoop) as well because they should be evaluated based on performance just as the players are... It may seem that Shell and Walsh are joined at the hip, but Nick Saban demoted/fired long time friends Richard Smith and Will Muschamp from his defensive staff after year 1... The greater good comes into play at some point...

What we're witnessing in Oakland now is the very definition of the starting process of rebuilding IMO... The sooner we wrap our heads around that, the sooner we can we can get the ulcers and tendancy to break remotes under control...
 
I don't know, I think what I am trying to hang onto is that most 1st year coaches struggle.

Shell took over a very bad team and it will take time to get that fixed.

Do I agree with how he is doing things? No. But I do see some improvement in the play of the O-line which is encouraging.

What is not encouraging (as HB has mentioned) is the lack of in game adjustments. This was something that plagued Shell in his first stint as an HC and it still appears to be an issue. Walsh has alot to do with that I am sure, but Shell has the final say so.

If they fire Walsh and get someone else in that is more adept at adjusting as needed then I think we might see some real progress. Too bad I don't see Shell making that change during the season.

All in all, there are some things to stay positive about if you look hard enough. A win would really help here.
 
Some great points being made. I really don't feel as down about this season as I thought I would considering we are 0-4.

I looked at the roster during pre-season and looked at the players who are over 30 and it is a short list and doesn't contain many key contributors:

Badger 31
Brooks 30
Crockett 33
Johnstone 33
Lechler 30
Poole 34
Sapp 33
Sims 31
Starks 32
Treu 32
Whitted 32

We have a lot of players who are 26 or less so the future looks good. The last 2 drafts have been productive so if we can get everybody on board and pulling in the same direction there is no reason that things will not continue to improve. This season is going to be terrible if you are just looking at wins and losses which is easy to do. If you are prepared to look deeper and the development of individual players and them working within a scheme then I think things are not going to seem quite as bad.

I suppose that leaves the question of how to evaluate Shells first season back as a head coach. I don't think it is going to be possible to put a number of wins down as the success criteria.
 
hawaiianboy said:
Right now if Raider Nation were a hospital patient, they'd claim to be terminally ill and beg to be doped up or in some cases, beg for someone to pull the plug...
Guilty! :o

1) Play the young guys to see exactly what you've got in them
I love that this is happening, believe it or not. If you don't play them, you just don't know. That's why I'm thrilled to read that Walter gets the nod this weekend. I'm also pleased that Howard and Routt seem to be in some heavy rotation.
2) Get the salary cap under control and not take the credit card approach to free agency by continuing to throw money at past their prime 'name' free agents...
Agreed, but I'm still of the mind that the right kind of veteran leadership is worth the money. If only there were more Rod Woodsons out there.
In between giving me the gas on how 'Oakland' is now spelled 'aklan' because there is no O or D being played by the Raiders,
Haha! Is it bad that I want to use this?
The Niners had just gone through five head coaches in four years and were six years removed from their last competitive season... In Walsh's rookie year as head coach, he made a point to play the young guys he had and start the mental process of deciding who he needed to purge from the roster and who he could take the field with down the road...
Wow. I never thought about it that way. It makes total sense, though, given the fact that Walsh's offenses were built on knowing his personnel and tailoring the scheme around their strengths. Don't change the player, change the scheme.
Now I'm not claiming Shell to be Walsh and I'm certainly not claiming Walter to be Montana...
Why the hell not? You've been blowing sunshine up our butts with this entire post. Why stop now?
I really believe Art should have the full year before Raiderfan casts his difinitive Yay or Nay vote:
And I believe Mr. Davis will give it to him.
16 out of the 22 listed starters have 5 years or less experience, 11 of 22 three years or less... More than half are first year starters at their current position...
Since you put it THAT way...
What we're witnessing in Oakland now is the very definition of the starting process of rebuilding IMO... The sooner we wrap our heads around that, the sooner we can we can get the ulcers and tendancy to break remotes under control...
Excellent post, Island Boy.
 
I think I disagree with a part of your post, Norris. I don't think that it'd be a good idea to make a coaching change with Walsh in the middle of the river. I would agree with dividing the responsibility, and (gulp) perhaps giving Shoop some of the calls, but I don't like the notion of causing further uproar in a team that's shaky in the lockerroom right now.

One other thing that just occurred to me, re: Randy Moss and the fickle nature of Raiders' fans...Moss commented that he doesn't go to visit Al Davis anymore because it doesn't do any good. How many of the fans complained that Davis was too much of a players' owner and that he ought not to give the players the opportunity to whine? Now that Davis is siding with his coaching staff, I'll betcha that we now see many, many fans saying that Davis should be giving an ear to his players.
 
TommyGirl said:
I think I disagree with a part of your post, Norris. I don't think that it'd be a good idea to make a coaching change with Walsh in the middle of the river. I would agree with dividing the responsibility, and (gulp) perhaps giving Shoop some of the calls, but I don't like the notion of causing further uproar in a team that's shaky in the lockerroom right now.

I tend to agree with that. I don't like mid-season coaching changes either. Especially seeing as how someone new would have (hopefully) a different system that would take the players time to pick up. Doing that mid-season is tough. So waiting till the end of the year is ok with me for the most part. I think that maybe as you mention, dividing the responsibility would be good. Anything to get the plays in faster and to make in game adjustments will be good.

But I do agree with not canning a coach during the season, my comment was more based on how much I loathe Walsh right now.
 
What a typical male...letting emotion cloud your reason.
 
Major props to RaiderIVLife and CoconutBoy --- both excellent reads. (I'm holding back on the Rep because I have to figure out how to fix what I fucked up so the system is meaningful for a few years -- not a couple of weeks) Recently, after the shock of knowing we're headed for a top 3 pick again, I have tried to look for what's right. Unless you drop your hands and really think about it it's just easier to shake your head and call the organization atrocious. It's just a lot easier.

So since I'm not heading for the golf course (getting cold and wet up here) I'm going to concentrate on finding the silver lining and even in the game day threads although that is a tough order in the heat of battle.

hawaiianboy said:
Right now if Raider Nation were a hospital patient, they'd claim to be terminally ill and beg to be doped up or in some cases, beg for someone to pull the plug... Anything to take them out of their pain and misery
Get out of my mind.

hawaiianboy said:
Raider Nation were screaming for the Raiders to do these past two years:

1) Play the young guys to see exactly what you've got in them
2) Get the salary cap under control and not take the credit card approach to free agency by continuing to throw money at past their prime 'name' free agents...
Truer words have never been spoken.

hawaiianboy said:
If we had blown things up a year removed from being in the Super Bowl, there would have been just as many fans questioning the sanity of not loading up to make another run at things after being so recently close, as there are now Raider fans questioning why we didn't blow it up back then...
Yes you have been reading a lot of message boards. This is exactly true.

hawaiianboy said:
I've been posting on forums long enough to know that short of winning a Super Bowl, there is just no pleasing everyone
Like TG for example?

hawaiianboy said:
... Some of the very same people adamant about not wanting to sign older free agents are the same people asking why we didn't sign so and so this past off season...
Actually I was hoping for a mix. But hiring older FA's is more for a team who's trying to get to the top of the mountain. At this point (sans the losing) I'm happy to see the young kids play win, lose or draw.

hawaiianboy said:
I was talking to an old coach of mine who also happens to be a Niner fan dating a long ways back... In between giving me the gas on how 'Oakland' is now spelled 'aklan' because there is no O or D being played by the Raiders.
Niiiiiiiiiice...now Chief, Bronco and Charger fan can have a mantra to blindside Raider fan with every Monday morning. Real niiiiice.

hawaiianboy said:
The Niners had just gone through five head coaches in four years and were six years removed from their last competitive season... In Walsh's rookie year as head coach, he made a point to play the young guys he had and start the mental process of deciding who he needed to purge from the roster and who he could take the field with down the road...

Bill Walsh went 2-14 that first year... Other than a few game snaps, rookie 3rd round pick Joe Montana spent the entire year learning the playbook... The young guys took their lumps in what would be a long year...

The second year Walsh went 6-10... Montana split time with Steve Deberg and took his beatings and made his share of ill advised mistakes... Bad apples were removed from the roster and young vets and new draft picks continued to get valuable playing time and experience...

In year 3, Walsh went 13-3, won the Super Bowl and had successfully pulled a failed franchise from the gutter by it's lapels... Jimmy Johnson also went through a similar transformation after inheriting a mess from Tom Landry...
We can only hope for that kind of success with our rebuilding situation. Stranger things have happened however in the NFL. It's one sport where going from worst to first has some precedent.

hawaiianboy said:
Of course, Art doesn't have the track record of rebuilding a franchise that would buy him the benefit of doubt that a Bill Parcells and Marty Shottenheimer would...
And, of course, as late as kickoff this Sunday night, Charger Fan was calling for Shottenheimer head for holding back Phillip Rivers in the passing game. After letting the kid loose and beating the world champs Marty is a god in Chargerland.

Yep as I think I mentioned somewhere before the youth on this team is something Raider Nation can pin point as very encouraging while we're building for the Return of Glory.
 
TommyGirl said:
What a typical male...letting emotion cloud your reason.

It seems that is more often than not the case with me these days. :D
 
I know most Raider fans are heavily into Walsh and Shell for the lack of halftime adjustments. I still think this problem goes right back to the fact that the team isn't executing. I can just hear the coaches in the lockerroom now:

"Okay, let's see, we're not executing the plays we practiced all week, let's try some stuff we haven't practiced since camp."

"Do you think it'll be a problem with Walter at QB? Remember, he didn't practice those plays much, if at all in camp."

"Listen, the fans want to see adjustments. They don't see the slight adjustments we make in sequence based on down and distance, let's make it more dramatic so they can see it."

It always amazes me when people bring up adjustments for a team that isn't executing. If you're watching through the TV, how can you tell? Through our first three games the most effective adjustment would have been a little thing called blocking, and that had JSN (Jack S#!t Nothing) to do with play selection. Would anyone be complaining about adjustments if guys weren't dropping catchable balls? Against San Fran it might have helped if Walter hit guys in the red jersey's two fewer times or if Jordan had recognized a lateral (hell Tui might have led a comeback if not for 2 Int's). Every single one of those issues is execution, not play selection.

To this date I have not seen a play selection or adjustment issue. To date, execution has been the number one problem the Raiders have had. When we start executing on a regular basis, then we can evaluate Walsh and the play selection.
 
TommyGirl said:

Agreed, but I'm still of the mind that the right kind of veteran leadership is worth the money. If only there were more Rod Woodsons out there.

I'm actually one of the people that like to sign former good-great players and squeeze years out of them... What I don't like is giving big money long term contracts to older players with injury histories (Trace Armstrong)... I know that sounds contradictory.... Free agency should be a supplement to building with the draft... Like the Pats signing Harrison and Colvin... The big money contracts should go to the pre 30 group and the older players thought of as a 1-2 year stop gap...

I guess it all depends whether you win... You know how it is, we looked great when we brought in Sam Adams and Romo, stupid when we signed Sapp and Big Ted...

This year, I was all for bringing in leader type FA's on the O-line and at safety to compliment the youth we had there...

I like to sign FA's then complain and bitch when young guys like Eric Barton don't get on the field... I'm cool like that...
 
Rupert said:
To this date I have not seen a play selection or adjustment issue. To date, execution has been the number one problem the Raiders have had. When we start executing on a regular basis, then we can evaluate Walsh and the play selection.
I agree with your post...mostly. San Diego is the exception to my agreement, however. The playcalling was directly into the strength of San Diego's defense.
 
TommyGirl said:
I agree with your post...mostly. San Diego is the exception to my agreement, however. The playcalling was directly into the strength of San Diego's defense.
Oh, I don't disagree at all. However, we're supposed to be setting the run up as our strength. I think Art and Walsh wanted a gut check across the board. No excuses, if we're going to run the ball, this is as tough as it gets. Deal with it.

That's just the way I see things so far. Tough love. They're also probably checking the lockerroom for the players' demeanor after the game. Who gave up, who's pissed, etc. Art is finding out what he's got in all aspects. If he plans to win it all, he's got to know who's got his back when the going gets really tough.
 
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