Random thoughts Part Deaux

[Byron2112]

In reading this, I don't see any content beyond calling me names.

I don't have any belief that I will ever change your mind or get you to stop calling me names. But I did think that you would be solely at this level after a brief discussion. That point came sooner than I expected.

I've simply made these determinations based on your behaviors

 

[raiderfreak7]

The restaurants have a rude awakening coming. Even when they are re-opened people will be reluctant to go out to eat.

Actually I think the restaurants know this and so many will never make it back. Gonna be huge fallout in that business.

They've been pretty busy here since we opened. I work next to a popular one and the parking lot was full for lunch almost every day last week.

 

[Byron2112]

They've been pretty busy here since we opened. I work next to a popular one and the parking lot was full for lunch almost every day last week.

I drive by a nursery on the way home from work... it was an insane mob in there(weather is starting to get nice here).. I was frankly surprised it was open.

 

[xramfan]

Nurseries and hardware stores in my area look like Raider tailgates on weekends these days. Parking lots full with lines of cars waiting to get in down the streets. Kinda nuts now. Personally my income and well being has been unaffected for the most part but I have friends and family that are beginning to feel desperate. Being asked to stand down for a couple or few weeks is one thing but standing down and doing nothing for a couple or few months with no defined end game timetable is nearly impossible. I think folks on this blue marble are wired to socialize, work, fix, create and explore things......not sit and cower. I`m not a math or econ wiz but I am hearing from many that are and I am learning the intentional stoppage of this economy is unsustainable much longer. By some expert guesses, we are already at a 2-3 year set back from where we were weeks ago. I also know school aged children, if this distance learning continues next fall can do significant damage to their social and mental growth because of the lack of face to face engaging with other children and adults not their parents. I truly dont know the perfect answer but returning to normal has to begin sooner than later or otherwise we may have other unforeseen social and economic issues developing that could ultimately dwarf the damage from this virus.

 

[Turo]

OK cheers. So you're saying that there's pretty much consensus that a lockdown was required but how it's been executed is why there are protests now? That makes sense, particularly given the range of population density across America. I can see that what's required in NYC is maybe not suitable for one-horse-townsville in middle America.

But if is just a question of degree and application, then I'm not sure I follow the logic of your last sentence (in bold). If the virus is dangerous, lockdown is the solution and the only quibbles are around park benches and haircuts, then aren't the 'Don't Tread on Me' advocates also boot-licking drones?

Boot licking implies a subservient mentality to the State, an unwavering belief that Big Brother knows best no matter what and is beyond reproach.

The "quibbles" are people getting arrested, detained, threatened with force over quibbly hypocritical shit. People are upset that they can't go to work or run their business even while practicing social distancing. People are fed up that sitting on a park bench by yourself isn't okay but it's okay to be inside a store shopping.

The video is also making a point that even with new data coming out showing that the situation is way less of a disaster than originally feared, people are wilfully clinging to the worst case scenario.

 

[xramfan]

I think we live in a time with too much information and not enough information at the same time. We also have to sift through literally piles of agenda driven opinions. To me, and I am not a rocket geologist by any means, but I believed we were being asked to SIP for a few weeks so as to flatten the curve so as to not overwhelm resources. We all complied for the most part because we had an objective and timeline. Then the objective began to change and the timeline got further and further away not to mention that what started as a behavioral request then became mandates with punishment for non compliance. When the objective is uncertain nor possibly attainable and no sunset timeline, folks get nervous and agitated IMO.

Going back to flattening the curve, and I never taught nor attended AP Calculus but whether you have a tall spike or shallow but long line, isnt the area under the line the same mass either way?

 

[kinz]

I think that sensible choices are very important. We do need to have factories back to work, we need engineers designing things, people maintaining roads and building houses. Do we need Disneyland or in person classes at universities? Do we need SRO concerts?

Is it "boot licking" or subservience to board up your windows in a hurricane?

Opening up gradually, watching carefully, and stepping back when needed is a good idea. You can see the data of previous pandemics where social distancing worked, was removed, and a few months later with a change of weather the thing came roaring back twice as bad as before.

 

[kinz]

I think we live in a time with too much information and not enough information at the same time. We also have to sift through literally piles of agenda driven opinions. To me, and I am not a rocket geologist by any means, but I believed we were being asked to SIP for a few weeks so as to flatten the curve so as to not overwhelm resources. We all complied for the most part because we had an objective and timeline. Then the objective began to change and the timeline got further and further away not to mention that what started as a behavioral request then became mandates with punishment for non compliance. When the objective is uncertain nor possibly attainable and no sunset timeline, folks get nervous and agitated IMO.

Going back to flattening the curve, and I never taught nor attended AP Calculus but whether you have a tall spike or shallow but long line, isnt the area under the line the same mass either way?

Depends on how high and thin. But you have a good point. If it infects until 75% of people have immunity, then the total number of infections is the same, whether they occur over one month or 20 years. Advantages in spreading it out is that you can properly treat people and decrease mortality per infection, and if you really spread it out you may hope to get a vaccine or treatment. Advantage to having it all at once is that you get back to normal quicker.

There is real hope for a vaccine this fall. Open up needed stuff now, keep tabs on huge drivers of spread, and wait it out for a bit. Seems like a clear choice to me. I see nothing wrong with beaches and parks and many workplaces, a lot wrong with universities having classes of 300 and then those 300 mixing with other classes of 300 throughout the day, and then filling up bars at night.

 

[xramfan]

I think that sensible choices are very important. We do need to have factories back to work, we need engineers designing things, people maintaining roads and building houses. Do we need Disneyland or in person classes at universities? Do we need SRO concerts?

Is it "boot licking" or subservience to board up your windows in a hurricane?

Opening up gradually, watching carefully, and stepping back when needed is a good idea. You can see the data of previous pandemics where social distancing worked, was removed, and a few months later with a change of weather the thing came roaring back twice as bad as before.

I think there are reasonable ways of keeping the economic wheels turning. Maybe I am dumber than dirt but would it be crazy to let those that want to return to work voluntarily to do so as well as let others work from home that are able and to protect the elderly and those with multiple comorbidities to stay sheltered? If there will be mandates, maybe have thermo fever scans at entrances to businesses and public areas to keep the symptomatic identified and away from those who are asymptomatic.

 

[xramfan]

I am more interested in effective treatment modalities than an actual vaccine. I base this off of a theory I discussed with a buddy of mine who is currently an MICN but has been taking classes specific to epidemiology during the last year or so. If I understood him correctly, (and that is a big IF) I believe he said this C19 virus has already changed strains or mutations 20 times since it was discovered??? Therefore like the common cold, it just isnt efficient to come up with vaccines because like most electronics, it is outdated by the time it comes out. Having said that, I think medications used in treatment modalities are improving every day and give hope.

 

[cruedi]

Well all this virus talk makes me want to drink. I picked up some Hartley VSOP brandy at Costco last weekend. Very nice in mixed drinks, I used it in sazerac yesterday.

 

[kinz]

I think there are reasonable ways of keeping the economic wheels turning. Maybe I am dumber than dirt but would it be crazy to let those that want to return to work voluntarily to do so as well as let others work from home that are able and to protect the elderly and those with multiple comorbidities to stay sheltered? If there will be mandates, maybe have thermo fever scans at entrances to businesses and public areas to keep the symptomatic identified and away from those who are asymptomatic.

I think voluntary return to work is sensible. Most places can return to work. mandatory stoppage of things should be reserved to huge spreaders. A rock concert now would be nearly criminal in the spread it would produce. Schools are a very difficult one. If students are in one class per day, it is far far better than crowed classes mixing all day. I just don't see how universities work in person, they are likely the single most problematic aspect of society in terms of this.

As to your comments about Covid and a vaccine, I am no expert here either. But I think that all viruses mutate all the time, and that the rate of this one is far at the slow end. HIV mutates inside you. And there is no such thing as "the common cold" there are many causes with approximately similar symptoms. Maybe hundreds of different causes as in completely different viruses.

 

[Diceq]

The restaurants have a rude awakening coming. Even when they are re-opened people will be reluctant to go out to eat.

Actually I think the restaurants know this and so many will never make it back. Gonna be huge fallout in that business.

I agree but it’ll be good to have the choice

 

[RaiderJF]

Going back to flattening the curve, and I never taught nor attended AP Calculus but whether you have a tall spike or shallow but long line, isnt the area under the line the same mass either way?

Congrats, you passed Calc I!!!

 

[Byron2112]

Nurseries and hardware stores in my area look like Raider tailgates on weekends these days. Parking lots full with lines of cars waiting to get in down the streets. Kinda nuts now. Personally my income and well being has been unaffected for the most part but I have friends and family that are beginning to feel desperate. Being asked to stand down for a couple or few weeks is one thing but standing down and doing nothing for a couple or few months with no defined end game timetable is nearly impossible. I think folks on this blue marble are wired to socialize, work, fix, create and explore things......not sit and cower. I`m not a math or econ wiz but I am hearing from many that are and I am learning the intentional stoppage of this economy is unsustainable much longer. By some expert guesses, we are already at a 2-3 year set back from where we were weeks ago. I also know school aged children, if this distance learning continues next fall can do significant damage to their social and mental growth because of the lack of face to face engaging with other children and adults not their parents. I truly dont know the perfect answer but returning to normal has to begin sooner than later or otherwise we may have other unforeseen social and economic issues developing that could ultimately dwarf the damage from this virus.

 

[Turo]

I am more interested in effective treatment modalities than an actual vaccine. I base this off of a theory I discussed with a buddy of mine who is currently an MICN but has been taking classes specific to epidemiology during the last year or so. If I understood him correctly, (and that is a big IF) I believe he said this C19 virus has already changed strains or mutations 20 times since it was discovered??? Therefore like the common cold, it just isnt efficient to come up with vaccines because like most electronics, it is outdated by the time it comes out. Having said that, I think medications used in treatment modalities are improving every day and give hope.

A vaccine will be made and there is going to be a battle for all that sweet sweet money to be harvested.

Will probably wind up like the flu vaccine which is a guessing game because of all the variation and mutations of strains.. $3-5Bn a year is a shitload of cheddar.

 

[RaiderJF]

A vaccine will be made and there is going to be a battle for all that sweet sweet money to be harvested.

But that will be money well-earned. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone from those spoils (within reason). It’s disappointing (understatement) that these companies didn’t follow through with their vaccine work last time around with SARS-corona.

 

[xramfan]

I recently talked to an old friend who has worked many years for Genentech specifically in viral research. He left the research side and is now on the sales side because that is where the money is. I told him the same thing like, "whoever comes up with this vaccine will never have to work a day in his/her life". He told me there is very little money in the vaccine market and went on to say the king pin money makers were medications for Dementia/Alzheimers and neuro medications. I dont recall asking why because our conversation was more about a mutual friend of ours who just died after a battle with cancer and we didnt really discuss C19 at length...

 

[Turo]

I recently talked to an old friend who has worked many years for Genentech specifically in viral research. He left the research side and is now on the sales side because that is where the money is. I told him the same thing like, "whoever comes up with this vaccine will never have to work a day in his/her life". He told me there is very little money in the vaccine market and went on to say the king pin money makers were medications for Dementia/Alzheimers and neuro medications. I dont recall asking why because our conversation was more about a mutual friend of ours who just died after a battle with cancer and we didnt really discuss C19 at length...

Flu vaccine is somewhere between 2-5bn a year depending on who you ask.

 

[DonkeyKilla]

Flu vaccine is somewhere between 2-5bn a year depending on who you ask.

doesn’t mean it’s highly profitable though, it might be I don’t know