Raiders: It's risky to bet on Black
Aug. 10, 2006
This is the latest in a Fantasy Source series examining the fantasy prospects of every NFL team. Today, a look at the Raiders:
WHAT'S NEW
The something new for the Raiders is a lot like a Silver and Black wedding would be -- it comes with the something old and something borrowed, which should add up to something blue in the standings again.
The something old is the coach, Art Shell, whose first six-year coaching stint with the team finished 12 years ago. Hiring a former right-hand man on the field also means this team remains firmly in the grasp of owner Al Davis.
The something borrowed are the offensive and defensive philosophies. Much like the Super Bowl champion Steelers, this team will look to be run-first with LaMont Jordan, despite the flashiness of the receiving corps. Much like another champion, the Patriots, coordinator Rob Ryan will lean on added linebacker depth from the draft to throw different alignments at opponents.
So why might the near future be blue? Although there is some big-name talent (Randy Moss), a combination of too many inconsistent veterans (new QB Aaron Brooks), a shaky offensive line and a younger defense will make it hard for this team to stay on the field and produce consistently week after week, especially in a tough division.
5-Star Players
LaMont Jordan, RB. The Raiders felt like he would be a perfect fit with them when he was a Jet, and once he became Raider last season, carrying the full load as a versatile running and receiving back, he didn't disappoint. The yards from scrimmage and receptions should be gaudy totals again, and an increased emphasis on the run hopefully will mean some more TD punch-ins. Because Oakland is bound to trail often again, Jordan won't get much help from his line or often be in a position to close out games with late carries. So his value isn't as high as it could be on a better all-around team. Still, he is a solid first-round, No. 1 fantasy back -- anywhere from picks No. 5 through 9, depending on your scoring system.
Randy Moss, WR. He and Terrell Owens are in the same boat. Their marquee names and tantalizing talent will draw us to them in Round 2, but their diva-like issues make us feel like we're living on the edge by drafting them there. If you're a risky investor, you'll put Moss in your portfolio, er, I mean roster. While Steve Smith, Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison are the "safe" veteran No. 1 wideout picks, Moss is capable of rebounding and exploding with big game after big game. Of course, injury concerns (the groin, ouch) and a QB change to Brooks add to the risk factors. Considering head-to-head fantasy is all about big scoring in a given week, I think it's worth gambling on gathering Moss that high.
4-Star Players
Derrick Burgess, DE. Pop quiz: Who led the NFL in sacks last season? I'll give you a hint -- it's this guy, with an even one for every game (16). Will Burgess defend his title? It's unlikely the total will be that high again because of the double-teams he'll draw, but no matter what fronts Ryan uses, he'll put Burgess in position to succeed again. For a pass-rushing IDP, consider Burgess in the latter part of the top 10.
Key additions: LB Darnell Bing, QB Aaron Brooks, LB Thomas Howard, S Michael Huff, DE Lance Johnstone, CB Duane Starks.
Key losses: QB Kerry Collins, TE Zeron Flemister, DB Renaldo Hill, DT Ted Washington, CB Charles Woodson.
3-Star Players
Aaron Brooks, QB. It's too bad he is no longer in New Orleans, because he and former teammate Will Smith no longer can form the cast of Bad Boys 3. I've had the Martin Lawrence doppleganger on several of my teams in the past, and he has worked well in a platoon in the right matchups. I'm not "so crazy" to think, however, that Brooks will Rebound from a dismal 13-TD and 17-pick season to suddenly blossom with Moss. If you draft Brooks in the second wave of QBs, you can't directly commit him to a committee -- just ask those who were burned by taking Kerry Collins (um, me) too high and seeing him succumb to giveaway-fests. Instead, Brooks is someone you should stash behind a weekly-type starter and use with caution for anything beyond a bye-week replacement.
Jerry Porter, WR. We're still waiting for his first 1,000-yard and double-digit TD season. Appropriately, his level of unhappiness in Shell's camp matches those of his 2005 owners. He should be lighting up No. 2 corners instead of lighting up his coach. I've seen Porter tabbed like a higher-end fantasy No. 2. I think he has that kind of upside with his experience and talent opposite Moss, but he also could just as easily flop again and produce like a No. 3 or even a reserve in shallower leagues. I would rather take the risk on Moss early than on Porter in the middle rounds.
2-Star Players
Sebastian Janikowski, K. You know that indescribable excruciating headache you get when you're hung over after a long Saturday night? I guarantee Seabass does, but to me, it always seems to feel worse to see that Janikowski is your starting kicker on Sunday morning. He converted only 20-of-30 field-goal attempts last season and was tied for 28th among all scorers. Who needs an aspirin?
1-Star Players
Courtney Anderson, TE. Everyone rushed to pick up Anderson after last season's Thursday night opener at New England in which he caught two TD passes. The rest of the year, he caught only 21 balls with one more score. There should be much better options for a bye-week filler during the season.
Zack Crockett and Justin Fargas, RBs. Crockett and Fargas aren't nearly as cool as Crockett and Tubbs or even Starsky and Hutch, even though Fargas is the son of Huggy Bear (um, that would be Antonio Fargas, not Snoop Dogg). Speaking of vice squads, neither is worth "handcuffing" to Jordan in drafts. Find your Jordan insurance elsewhere.
Michael Huff, S. This former Longhorns stud is a long way from the national championship game -- figuratively, because geographically, Pasadena is not that far from Oakland. The team's first-round draft pick has the size, speed, instincts and playmaking flair to eventually be an IDP producer in the class of, say, the Cowboys' Roy Williams. The chances of that happening as early as this season for Huff are unlikely, however, with all the question marks around him in the secondary.
Kirk Morrison, MLB. IDP is all about tackles, not savvy and talent, which lands him on this list.
0-Star Players
Defense/special teams. The unit won't give you much in terms of yards allowed, sacks beyond Burgess or takeaways. Any questions?
Tyler Brayton, DE. Will get some sacks because of Burgess but not enough.
Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel, WRs. Considering Brooks, Moss and Porter all come with their share of risks, multiple that tenfold for Curry, who has torn the same Achilles' tendon twice in consecutive seasons, and Gabriel, the occasional flash in the pan.
Andrew Walter and Marques Tuiasosopu, QBs. No offense to Huff, but why didn't they draft Matt Leinart?
Fabian Washington, CB. If this blinding second-year speedster can start plucking a few interceptions early, he will quickly shoot up the star chart.
TO KNOW LIST
Ultimate Fantasy Football Tip: Although Moss is worth the risk of jumping on early in traditional Draft and Trade leagues, he is someone you'll want to avoid when buying your wideouts. He is the third highest-priced at $7.5 million, making Chad Johnson look like an absolute steal at $1.26 million cheaper.
Coaching: Shell and coordinator Tom Walsh will combine to make Jordan the centerpiece of their offense, sometimes to the point of frustrating owners of Brooks, Moss and Porter. Davis' love for big plays downfield might take a backseat to more running between the tackles, dump-offs and designed screens.
Defensively, Ryan is imparting his wisdom to several players at key positions who will need time to learn it, most notably rookies Huff, Thomas Howard and Darnell Bing, who all will be called upon to be quick contributors. It's unreasonable to expect a big improvement from last season as young players try to mesh with the system.
Offensive line: It's too bad Shell, an eight-time Pro Bowler who shined on the Raiders' line of the 1970s, is too old to suit up and play, because they could sure use him again. The biggest concern is pass protection. Left tackle Robert Gallery hasn't lived up to expectations of a high first-rounder, and right tackle Langston Walker hasn't put it all together yet. They're only average at best in the middle, where they're set to break in rookie Paul McQuistan at right guard. Jordan's value won't be affected too much by what's in front of him, but Brooks better be prepared to get the ball out even more quickly than he did in New Orleans.
Schedule analysis: The AFC West competition will be tough again, with Denver, Kansas City and San Diego all having playoff potential. The team also must play Super Bowl participants Pittsburgh and Seattle, but the league has thrown the Raiders plenty of bones in the form of fellow '05 dog teams Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston and the Jets. That kind of schedule will mean up-and-down results -- just be sure to choose to exploit the Raiders' weakest matchups. Fantasy Strength of Schedule: 22nd toughest (or 11th easiest).