Angry Pope
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Quarterbacks and Fourth Quarter Comebacks
6/26/2006
Jason McKinley
Competitive balance defines the NFL. Most games are still in doubt in the fourth quarter. Since 1996, 1,474 out of 2,598 regular season and postseason games have featured a team trailing by eight points or less in possession of the ball in the fourth quarter. In 603 of those 1,474 games, the trailing team won. Therefore, nearly a quarter of all victories in the last decade have been the result of late and dramatic rallies.
Quarterbacks are associated most strongly with comebacks. How many times was it said that John Elway “willed his team to victory” following a come-from-behind rally? Johnny Unitas is often credited with the creation of the two-minute offense. In his Hall of Fame career, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits. In fact, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits in the postseason alone. Hell, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth-quarter deficits in the postseason even if you only count his two seasons with the Chiefs. Today, quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Brett Favre are discussed in heroic terms mainly because they’re able to pull out victories in situations where mere mortals would surely fail.
Obviously, many comeback attempts prove futile. While 603 games since 1996 have featured come-from-behind wins, another 1,322 games have ended with the close trailer still behind when the final gun sounded. Any instance in which a team had possession of the ball at some point in the fourth quarter and was trailing by eight points or less was considered for the study. This naturally would include any successful comeback regardless of the largest deficit faced ? one can?t complete a twenty-point comeback without getting the score under 9 points at some time. It also gives a reasonable cut-off for failed comebacks: where one drive could potentially change the lead or send the game to overtime. On occasion a team will get the ball very early in the fourth quarter, then again later, and (very rarely) a third or fourth time, and be within one score every time. In this study, that is counted as only one failed game opportunity.
While quarterbacks get accolades for the comebacks, head coaches often get blamed for failures. Why do we think of Tom Brady, and John Elway as responsible for leading come-from-behind victories, but not Bill Belichick, Mike Shanahan, and Dan Reeves? Is a quarterback more responsible for a comeback, or is it the head coach? Is a head coach more responsible for holding a small lead, or is it the quarterback?
We can start to figure this out by looking at the individual performance of quarterbacks in comeback situations. Over the past decade, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comebacks than Drew Bledsoe. Then again, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comeback opportunities than Bledsoe. Are Bledsoe?s 19 wins in 61 comeback chances more impressive than Donovan McNabb?s 12 in 27? A raw total says that Bledsoe is better, and a straight winning percentage says that McNabb is better. Neither seems like an ideal ranking tool.
A simple comparative ranking system can be formulated with the help of a statistical method known as a “t-test.” A t-test is generally used to test a statistical hypothesis against some population parameter. The result is given as a “p value,” where a lower p value indicates a more significant result. A t-test will usually reward a good average over a large number of trials more than a great average over a small number of trials, which is necessary in this study due to the wildly different and often very small sample sizes for each quarterback. A Shapiro-Wilk test was executed and it was determined that the population had an approximately normal distribution, which is necessary for this type of testing. Here the t-test is used to determine the significance of a quarterback?s actual number of comebacks compared to the expected number given his opportunities.
(A word of caution is in order: Please do not use t-tests the way they are used in this article. For our purposes, the significance levels were actually used to rank order every quarterback that has been in a comeback situation since 1996. This is not in the spirit of what a t-test is supposed to do. However, saying someone is in a group that is significantly better than average, worse than average, or not significant versus the sample population at some p value is not nearly as fun as saying “This guy ranks 8th and this guy only ranks 37th!” Anyway, if you are a professional statistician, do not attempt this at work!)
With a test in place for ranking performance, we can then implement another test, an analysis of variance, to help determine responsibility for comebacks and holding leads. An analysis of variance can break down the components of variation between and within groups and help determine which factors (if any) are important. In this study all possible two-way combinations of quarterbacks and coaches were examined. All quarterbacks who have been in a comeback or lead-holding situation under more than one head coach comprised one group. All coaches that have had multiple quarterbacks in comeback or lead-holding situations comprised the other group. Analyses of variance were run on each group, examining comeback ability and the ability to maintain leads, using modified t-test results as the dependent variables.
The general picture from these analyses of variance is that quarterbacks are more important than coaches in coming from behind to win, and coaches are more important than quarterbacks in holding leads. For example, the results indicate that Tom Brady should maintain a similar ability to bring his team from behind to win regardless of whether or not his coach is Bill Belichick. Furthermore, Bill Belichick should maintain a similar ability to hold on to a one-score, fourth-quarter lead whether or not his quarterback is Tom Brady.
These results make intuitive sense. A team that is trailing needs to be able to move the ball and score. Calling the right plays in this situation is certainly important, but execution by the quarterback and his surrounding cast is paramount. Meanwhile, a team that leads by a small margin will require a defensive stop, followed by utilization of a clock-killing offensive strategy usually predicated on the running game. This largely negates the quarterback’s role.
We looked at every game from the past ten seasons to see which recent quarterbacks have been the best at rallying their teams back from a deficit. And although he was known for comebacks early in his career, the top comeback quarterback might surprise you: it’s Jake Plummer, slightly ahead of Peyton Manning and Vinny Testaverde. It’s a surprising conclusion, but that’s the kind of insight rational statistical analysis can provide.
Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Quarterback Wins Losses
1 Jake Plummer 19 28
2 Peyton Manning 19 29
2 Vinny Testaverde 19 29
4 Tom Brady 13 8
5 Jon Kitna 15 23
6 Kerry Collins 17 30
7 Donovan McNabb 12 15
8 Marc Bulger 10 5
9 Jake Delhomme 10 12
9 Jay Fiedler 10 12
Plummer?s comeback ability has drifted towards average since his first few seasons but his overall numbers still rate the best. Under Vince Tobin, he was a stellar 10-11 when trailing by one score in the fourth, and since then he is a solid 9-17. Peyton Manning holds the single-season mark with six comeback wins in 1999. Only the coldest, hardest, football fact-seeking Patriots fans would express surprise at Peyton Manning?s high rank, but Vinny Testaverde is a bit of an eye-opener. However, Vinny was a comeback machine in 2000 and 2001, racking up nine wins in 17 comeback chances during those two seasons with the Jets. No other quarterback in the last decade had more than eight comeback wins in any two-year span.
cont'd...
Quarterbacks and Fourth Quarter Comebacks
6/26/2006
Jason McKinley
Competitive balance defines the NFL. Most games are still in doubt in the fourth quarter. Since 1996, 1,474 out of 2,598 regular season and postseason games have featured a team trailing by eight points or less in possession of the ball in the fourth quarter. In 603 of those 1,474 games, the trailing team won. Therefore, nearly a quarter of all victories in the last decade have been the result of late and dramatic rallies.
Quarterbacks are associated most strongly with comebacks. How many times was it said that John Elway “willed his team to victory” following a come-from-behind rally? Johnny Unitas is often credited with the creation of the two-minute offense. In his Hall of Fame career, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits. In fact, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits in the postseason alone. Hell, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth-quarter deficits in the postseason even if you only count his two seasons with the Chiefs. Today, quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Brett Favre are discussed in heroic terms mainly because they’re able to pull out victories in situations where mere mortals would surely fail.
Obviously, many comeback attempts prove futile. While 603 games since 1996 have featured come-from-behind wins, another 1,322 games have ended with the close trailer still behind when the final gun sounded. Any instance in which a team had possession of the ball at some point in the fourth quarter and was trailing by eight points or less was considered for the study. This naturally would include any successful comeback regardless of the largest deficit faced ? one can?t complete a twenty-point comeback without getting the score under 9 points at some time. It also gives a reasonable cut-off for failed comebacks: where one drive could potentially change the lead or send the game to overtime. On occasion a team will get the ball very early in the fourth quarter, then again later, and (very rarely) a third or fourth time, and be within one score every time. In this study, that is counted as only one failed game opportunity.
While quarterbacks get accolades for the comebacks, head coaches often get blamed for failures. Why do we think of Tom Brady, and John Elway as responsible for leading come-from-behind victories, but not Bill Belichick, Mike Shanahan, and Dan Reeves? Is a quarterback more responsible for a comeback, or is it the head coach? Is a head coach more responsible for holding a small lead, or is it the quarterback?
We can start to figure this out by looking at the individual performance of quarterbacks in comeback situations. Over the past decade, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comebacks than Drew Bledsoe. Then again, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comeback opportunities than Bledsoe. Are Bledsoe?s 19 wins in 61 comeback chances more impressive than Donovan McNabb?s 12 in 27? A raw total says that Bledsoe is better, and a straight winning percentage says that McNabb is better. Neither seems like an ideal ranking tool.
A simple comparative ranking system can be formulated with the help of a statistical method known as a “t-test.” A t-test is generally used to test a statistical hypothesis against some population parameter. The result is given as a “p value,” where a lower p value indicates a more significant result. A t-test will usually reward a good average over a large number of trials more than a great average over a small number of trials, which is necessary in this study due to the wildly different and often very small sample sizes for each quarterback. A Shapiro-Wilk test was executed and it was determined that the population had an approximately normal distribution, which is necessary for this type of testing. Here the t-test is used to determine the significance of a quarterback?s actual number of comebacks compared to the expected number given his opportunities.
(A word of caution is in order: Please do not use t-tests the way they are used in this article. For our purposes, the significance levels were actually used to rank order every quarterback that has been in a comeback situation since 1996. This is not in the spirit of what a t-test is supposed to do. However, saying someone is in a group that is significantly better than average, worse than average, or not significant versus the sample population at some p value is not nearly as fun as saying “This guy ranks 8th and this guy only ranks 37th!” Anyway, if you are a professional statistician, do not attempt this at work!)
With a test in place for ranking performance, we can then implement another test, an analysis of variance, to help determine responsibility for comebacks and holding leads. An analysis of variance can break down the components of variation between and within groups and help determine which factors (if any) are important. In this study all possible two-way combinations of quarterbacks and coaches were examined. All quarterbacks who have been in a comeback or lead-holding situation under more than one head coach comprised one group. All coaches that have had multiple quarterbacks in comeback or lead-holding situations comprised the other group. Analyses of variance were run on each group, examining comeback ability and the ability to maintain leads, using modified t-test results as the dependent variables.
The general picture from these analyses of variance is that quarterbacks are more important than coaches in coming from behind to win, and coaches are more important than quarterbacks in holding leads. For example, the results indicate that Tom Brady should maintain a similar ability to bring his team from behind to win regardless of whether or not his coach is Bill Belichick. Furthermore, Bill Belichick should maintain a similar ability to hold on to a one-score, fourth-quarter lead whether or not his quarterback is Tom Brady.
These results make intuitive sense. A team that is trailing needs to be able to move the ball and score. Calling the right plays in this situation is certainly important, but execution by the quarterback and his surrounding cast is paramount. Meanwhile, a team that leads by a small margin will require a defensive stop, followed by utilization of a clock-killing offensive strategy usually predicated on the running game. This largely negates the quarterback’s role.
We looked at every game from the past ten seasons to see which recent quarterbacks have been the best at rallying their teams back from a deficit. And although he was known for comebacks early in his career, the top comeback quarterback might surprise you: it’s Jake Plummer, slightly ahead of Peyton Manning and Vinny Testaverde. It’s a surprising conclusion, but that’s the kind of insight rational statistical analysis can provide.
Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Quarterback Wins Losses
1 Jake Plummer 19 28
2 Peyton Manning 19 29
2 Vinny Testaverde 19 29
4 Tom Brady 13 8
5 Jon Kitna 15 23
6 Kerry Collins 17 30
7 Donovan McNabb 12 15
8 Marc Bulger 10 5
9 Jake Delhomme 10 12
9 Jay Fiedler 10 12
Plummer?s comeback ability has drifted towards average since his first few seasons but his overall numbers still rate the best. Under Vince Tobin, he was a stellar 10-11 when trailing by one score in the fourth, and since then he is a solid 9-17. Peyton Manning holds the single-season mark with six comeback wins in 1999. Only the coldest, hardest, football fact-seeking Patriots fans would express surprise at Peyton Manning?s high rank, but Vinny Testaverde is a bit of an eye-opener. However, Vinny was a comeback machine in 2000 and 2001, racking up nine wins in 17 comeback chances during those two seasons with the Jets. No other quarterback in the last decade had more than eight comeback wins in any two-year span.
cont'd...