NFL Draft Rumors - The last 48 Hours

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I thought one place for this stuff is a good idea so all the topic threads don't get slammed.

How the draft could turn upside down
Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst


(April 25, 2007) -- Each year, there is the potential for the draft to get turned upside down. Sometimes it happens and sometimes the names peel right off the board in the projected order. I spoke with a number of personnel people who truly anticipate some action in the 2007 NFL Draft, especially on the first day. A number of teams have already set up contingency plans for draft-day trades if all the stars are aligned when they are on the clock.

Keep in mind, the key word is if when it comes to draft-day trades. Here are a number of situations that could affect the draft process as Saturday rolls on and even into Sunday. There's no doubt that Detroit general manager Matt Millen holds the key to the big first-round action followed by Tampa Bay GM Bruce Allen and Washington's Daniel Snyder.

1. The Oakland Raiders do not look like they are going to take anyone other than JaMarcus Russell. But they also haven't initiated contract negotiations with Russell's agents, which is perfectly within their rights to do so. For now, it looks like when Commissioner Roger Goodell announces, 'the Oakland Raiders are on the clock', the franchise will wait the allotted time and turn in the name JaMarcus Russell. Before the weekend is over, there might be a chance the Raiders will trade a pick to the Lions for Josh McCown, who told me he thinks he'll be a Raider before the end of the draft.

2. With Detroit on the clock and the rights to Calvin Johnson now in their possession, the first draft-day trade could take place. The Bucs should have a solid offer in place to move from No. 4 to No. 2. Their picks at No. 35 and No. 64 are fair compensation for the move. Detroit would land up at No. 4 where it could select DE Gaines Adams and still have solid picks at Nos. 34, 35, 64, and 66 to build its team. The Bucs are hoping the Lions take Adams at the No. 2 spot and Johnson would just fall to them. But other teams are calling the Lions and if Detroit passes on Johnson, then Cleveland, with the No. 3 pick overall, now becomes the dealer. Atlanta has the firepower to move from No. 8 to No. 2 to get Johnson. The Lions might love the No. 8 spot to save money and still get a very good player. They would also probably wind up with Atlanta's picks at Nos. 39 and 44. Detroit could walk away with a guy like LaRon Landry and hit the second round with pick Nos. 34, 39, 44 and 66. Millen could grab a QB like Trent Edwards and trade McCown for an early second-day pick.

3. Cleveland has to have a plan just in case Detroit stays put and selects another prospect other than Johnson. The Browns will get calls from a number of teams to move up -- Tampa Bay, Atlanta and maybe Minnesota could compete for the spot. At one draft during my time with the Jets, we moved one spot in a switch with Arizona at the exact same position Cleveland and Tampa are now and we selected a 1,000-yard back named Johnnie Johnson. I believe the Browns will stay put, unless Calvin Johnson is still on the board and then they really should sell the spot.

4. If Johnson falls to the Bucs, then it's a no-brainer. If he's gone before Tampa Bay picks at No. 4, then I expect the Bucs to take Adams or strongly consider an attempt to go down in the draft. I'm confident GM Allen has already set up some framework for a move. If Brady Quinn happens to be available, it sounds like the Dolphins will pick up the phone.

5. Arizona never likes to pay the money the top picks command and not many teams have as much practice at signing top-five picks as the Cardinals. If Arizona believes Levi Brown can do most of the things Joe Thomas can do as a left tackle, then it will field calls to go south. Keep in mind Atlanta, Miami and Houston would all like to see a guy like Thomas on their rosters. If the Cardinals don't have a ridiculous asking price to move down the draft board, then there could be some action at the five spot.

6. The Redskins need to move down with just one pick on the first day. After they select at No. 6, their next pick is at No. 143. A move up to the Redskins spot would probably get you Adrian Peterson, Amobi Okoye or LaRon Landry. There could also be a long-shot deal with the Redskins if a team like the Patriots wanted to surrender their picks at No. 24 and No. 28, which is about the compensation required to move. Landry in a Patriot uniform would be hard on the AFC East.

7. The Vikings don't seem too excited to move up and probably like their chances to just stay put and let a good player come to them. But if they decide Leon Hall or Darrelle Revis is their guy, then a move down is a possibility. They may be staring at Peterson and that decision would be tough. Trust me, a few teams within close striking distance to the Vikings will call.

8. Atlanta has to be considered a contender to move up for Johnson, who could wind up being as popular as Michael Vick in Atlanta. If the Falcons don't go up, I don't see a move down.

9. Miami seems very interested in Quinn, but a draft-day trade for Trent Green could squash the move up.

10. If the Texans decide a left tackle is critical or a running back like Peterson would change the face of the franchise, then they will have to get on the phone and work a deal to move up on the board. If they stay put, a corner or wide receiver could be the target.

Veterans mentioned as possible trade candidates for draft picks are starting to mount. And if just a few of the players mentioned get moved, we are in for some rollercoaster ride on Saturday. Players who would change the course of the first day include Green, Lance Briggs, Michael Turner, Alan Faneca, Kris Jenkins, Randy Moss, Asante Samuel, Cory Redding and really any veteran that a club feels they can't get re-signed long term and has one year left on his deal. Keep in mind, all the new head coaches are entitled to an extra mini-camp. Most of them are finishing up their pre-draft camps and might have concluded that some veterans are not good fits for their teams and are could now become potential trade bates.

Always anticipate that Jerry Jones (Dallas) and Mike Shanahan (Denver) are dealmakers and while both are sitting at the No. 21 and No. 22 spots, they could use their second-round picks to move up eight or nine slots in the first round or even higher with future picks. Draft-day trading has increased over the past few years, mostly because the salary cap increase provides teams with the space to maneuver trades. Secondly, with half the league turning over at the head coaching position in the past two years, there's a strong desire to get the old regime of players out and new faces through the draft in the locker room.

When all is said and done at Radio City Music Hall this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if there are 4 to 5 veteran players traded and 6 to 8 draft trades of significance. Thursday and Friday are the critical days where trade parameters are being discussed in seriousness. Teams are not going to expose who they want to move up or down for, but they will say things like, 'if the guy we want is there when you are on the clock then we would be interested in your spot and here's what we are willing to give'.

If the terms are agreeable to both parties, then it is usually left with, 'we look forward to hearing from you when we are up'. Not many trades have ever been fully constructed in the timeslot when a team is picking. There's simply not enough time to focus on who is left on the board, the compensation and what might be available if you are the team moving down in the trade. As for the veteran players like Briggs, now is the time to talk with your agent if a team is serious about a draft-day trade.

Finally, not every team has a dealmaker in the front office and that can prove to be very frustrating to teams looking to get a trade done. It becomes easy to just shut down the trade lines and pick when your turn comes. But that is not always getting the best value for the pick. For example: When the Chargers traded Eli Manning to the Giants minutes after selecting him, they got the extra pick that brought them Shawne Merriman. That is maximizing the value of a pick.
 
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From Jerry Mac

QB should be Kiffin's call
Posted by Jerry McDonald - NFL Writer on April 26th, 2007

I suggested in a Sunday column that if Lane Kiffin was hired in large measure because of his knowledge of college personnel, then Al Davis ought to let the new coach utilize those skills to the fullest.

Let Kiffin shop for the groceries, as Bill Parcells once put it.

Much of the press conference annoucing Kiffin's hiring contained lengthy sound bytes by Davis talking about what an advantage it would be having a new coach who had been recruiting coordinator at USC.

Davis managed to slip in that he, too, had once held the same position.

My suggestion was that Davis play the role of advisor, lending his counsel and experience, but allowing Kiffin to pick the players.

Do I think that will happen?

Not really, although I do believe Kiffin will have more influence with regard to personnel than any coach Davis has hired.

Davis tends to give first-year coaches a lot of rope, and Kiffin, seems brash enough to make sure his voice his heard and his feelings are known.

Heck, the guy has called Davis "Al" fin public rom the day he was hired, rather than the more reverential "Mr. Davis."

When it comes down to it, however, Davis will have the final say and he'll follow his instincts. It's his team, after all.

One area where it would behoove Davis to let Kiffin have his pick happens to be the first one, particularly if that choice is LSU's JaMarcus Russell or Notre Dame's Brady Quinn.

The Raiders' return to Oakland has been a disappointment on all levels with the exception of three consecutive division titles and some indelible playoff memories. The impetus came from a coach and a quarterback.

Jon Gruden began to change attitudes as well as practice habits and the style of play the moment he arrived in 1998, turning a 4-12 team to 8-8.

But the seeds of championship level football did not arrive until Gruden got the man he wanted at quarterback the following season.

I remember Davis sitting at a table, having a bite to eat with the media during a 1999 press conference, explaining the decision to let Jeff George go and sign Rich Gannon, saying, "Jon needed a quarterback who could move."

When Gannon held his retirement ceremony in Napa the year before last, Davis said it was his idea to bring him in but later conceded, "Jeff just wasn't Jon's cup of tea."

Davis can take credit for it because he's the owner and signs the checks. The issue here is Davis realized his coach wasn't a match for his quarterback, and he acted on it. It stands as the most significant personnel decision since the club's return in 1995.

When it comes to Russell, Quinn, or acquiring a veteran to play quarterback for the Raiders, Kiffin should be afforded the same opportunity.

If Kiffin wants Quinn, that's who he should get _ no matter how much Davis is blown away by Russell's size and arm strength. As mentioned before, one source told me Kiffin is partial to Quinn, but there's so much misinformation flowing around draft time it's hard to know for sure.

If Kiffin agrees Russell is the man, that makes it easy.

But if Kiffin has even the slightest inclination that Russell could be anything like George _ an unbelievable passer who appears content to rely on that skill and not bring winning intangibles to the table _ then Davis should act accordingly.

It's still a matter of debate in some circles whether Gannon was a creation of Gruden or Gruden was a creation of Gannon.

In fact, it was a partnership, and neither man would have flourished without the other. Without Gruden's meticulous preparation and his decision to give Gannon free reign in terms of remaking the attitude of his teammates, Gannon wouldn't have become an MVP the year after the coach left for Tampa Bay.

Without Gannon responding to that role, Gruden would have never won as much as he did or landed the Tampa Bay job that earned him a Super Bowl ring at the expense of his former team.

That's the kind of relationship Kiffin needs to have with his new quarterback. No matter which quarterback is picked, Kiffin will take the podium and say this was the guy he wanted all along, because that's how the media game is played on draft day.

Hopefully, it will be the truth and not an organizational unified front, because it shouldn't be Kiffin's second choice.

Not when his team is picking No. 1.

http://www.ibabuzz.com/raidersblog/2007/04/26/qb-should-be-kiffins-call/
 
POSTED 12:52 p.m. EDT; UPDATED 1:06 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2007

BROWNS FLOATING BRAYLON?

We'd heard a rumor to this effect a couple of weeks back from a reader, but could never corroborate it. Per Tony Grossi of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, the Browns have floated the names "Braylon" and "Edwards" to gauge possible trade interest.

As we'd initially heard the rumor, the thinking was Edwards and a third-round pick to the Vikings for the No. 7 overall pick in the draft.

Grossi also reports that the Browns would take receiver Calvin Johnson, if he's on the board when they pick at No. 3.

And that makes us wonder whether the Browns would package the No. 3 pick with whatever they could get for Edwards (and, possibly, Edwards himself) in order to move up in round one to get Johnson.

It might not be a bad deal for the Raiders, since they would come out of the transaction with Edwards and either JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn at No. 3.

PFT
 
Move Moss, end up with Braylon Edwards and a QB? The team would have to strongly consider that....
 
If the Browns were interested in 1.1, I think we would have heard about it.

I don't think anyone wants 1.1, and I don't think anyone believes we're taking CJ, so 1.2 is the spot to get him.
 
Prime real estate to pull a reverse Orlando Pace for Big Al, then? He'd supremely have everyone by the short hairs in that instance.. and frankly, I'm all for it. The worst thing that could happen is we wind up with the best WR to come into the NFL in 15+ years.

Oh Noes!
 
Has Davis learned from last year's mistake?

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

When a coach or GM says his team must rebuild through the draft, it might sound boring. But the old cliché rings truer than ever, which makes Saturday and Sunday more important than ever.

Although the Washington Redskins go against the grain and build their roster primarily through free-agent signings and strategic trades, the other 31 teams are more dependent on the draft. That's been true for a while. Thanks to a $109 million salary cap, though, teams have a better chance to keep their successful draft choices. That means fewer top players hit free agency, and when they do, the prices are ridiculous.

Teams that don't do well in the draft eventually have to depend on free agency. That's a dangerous proposition for two reasons: Free agents are expensive, and many free agents don't live up to the hype.

Most general managers don't like the way rookies are paid. It doesn't make sense to give the top pick a six-year, $54 million deal when he hasn't worn an NFL uniform. Although there is a rookie pool, agents have done a great job of draining the water and logic out of the restrictions. They've added option bonuses, incentives and escalators to turn $3 million slots into $54 million deals.

As much as teams talk about making trades within the first round, few like to move up. It costs in terms of draft choices, and the big money you have to pay a top-five draft pick usually isn't worth it. Last year's fifth pick, A.J. Hawk, signed a six-year, $36 million deal and had $15.04 million of guarantees. That's a lot of money.

But what are the alternatives? The interesting part is that more and more rookies are starting. Last year, 81 rookies started at least five games. That compares with 77 in 2005, 67 in 2004 and 57 in 2003. The draft provides long-term roster solutions for teams, but more and more, it's providing immediate fixes, too.

Here's what to look for this weekend:

1. The quarterback debate wages on: Last year, it was pretty evident Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler were going to be first-round choices. Fearing the cap consequences of making a mistake on any of them, teams such as Detroit and Oakland passed on quarterbacks. Al Davis admitted not taking Leinart set the Raiders franchise back for years. Had Davis taken Leinart or Cutler, the Raiders could draft Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson this year without thinking. On Saturday, Davis has a franchise-wrenching decision. Johnson is the best player, and JaMarcus Russell is the best quarterback. He probably can't pass on Russell because Andrew Walter is the only true quarterback on his current roster and you saw how well that worked out last season. The Lions and Browns may pass on Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn, thinking they can get Drew Stanton or Trent Edwards in a later round. In a league in which the quarterback is the most important player on the team, it's hard to believe teams will pass on the passers. But they will.

2. Big receivers: This is one of the better wide receiver drafts in recent years. Johnson is perhaps the top player in the draft, being 6-foot-5, 239 pounds and able to run a 4.35 40. Ted Ginn Jr. of Ohio State, Robert Meachem of Tennessee and Dwayne Bowe of LSU are expected to go in the first round. The great part of this year's receiver class is how deep it is. And all the top prospects have size. Johnson is 6-5. Dwayne Jarrett, who ran a disappointing 4.62 40, and Sidney Rice are 6-4. Meachem and Bowe are 6-2. In 2004, seven receivers went in the first round, but the only one to emerge as a Pro Bowler was Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals.

3. The Reggie Bush aftermath: It will be fascinating watching what the Houston Texans do. A year ago, they made a last-minute decision not to take the best player in the draft -- Bush. Instead, they took defensive end Mario Williams No. 1. Without a healthy running back, QB David Carr and the offense failed last season. Under coach Gary Kubiak, Houston has replaced the quarterback, halfback and fullback all for significantly more money than the starters who were under contract. Bush helped the Saints become a playoff team. The talk in Houston is that the Texans hope defensive end Gaines Adams will fall down to them at No. 10. That's right, Gaines, like Williams, is a pass-rusher. The Texans want more sacks, but they can't trade up for Adams. Imagine if they give up a good portion of this year's and next year's draft to move up to take another defensive end? They also aren't going to get halfback Adrian Peterson, who will go third or fifth. At 10, the Texans might trade back if the right player isn't there.

4. Strange running back draft: Peterson is clearly the best running back because of his Larry Johnson-type running style and 4.4 40 speed. Marshawn Lynch of Cal should go in the middle of the first round to Buffalo, Green Bay or Tennessee. After that, the running back class drops into the second round. Those three franchises have immediate needs for backs. The bargains are for the teams willing to gamble in later rounds. There are some amazing big backs with speed who eventually could develop into stars. Chris Henry of Arizona is 5-11, 230 pounds, but he can run a 4.3. He could go in the second round. Michael Bush of Louisville could be the biggest bargain. He's still coming off his broken leg, but someone could get a first-round back in the third round.

5. Thin tight end crop: Greg Olsen of Miami is the best, but he might slip to between picks 25 and 30 even though he's fast and has great hands. Zach Miller of Arizona State is next, but he's not expected to go until the second round. Only three other tight ends -- Scott Chandler of Iowa, Ben Patrick of Delaware and Kevin Boss of Western Oregon -- have a chance to go on the first day. After some great tight end drafts in the 2000s, this is the thinnest in a while.

6. Strong trade winds: For trades, this draft will be a bonanza, and the exciting part is that several veterans are in play. The Chiefs got the hot stove draft league going by sending Dante Hall to the Rams. Quarterback Trent Green of the Chiefs (Miami being the main target) and defensive tackle Kris Jenkins of the Panthers (the Rams being the main team) are the main pre-draft attractions. Larry Johnson of the Chiefs, Lance Briggs of the Bears, Michael Turner of the Chargers, Justin Smiley of the 49ers, Brian Kelly of the Bucs, Eric Barton and Justin McCareins of the Jets, and Josh McCown are just some of the names being thrown around.

7. Fast corners: Speed is everything at cornerback. Seven of the top nine cornerbacks in this draft run in the 4.3s, with Chris Houston of Arkansas being the best at 4.32. The best debate is the one-two punch of Leon Hall of Michigan and Darrelle Revis of Pitt. Both run in the 4.3s. Hall is the better Cover 2 cornerback. Revis is the best pure man coverage guy. Both should go in the top 15. The bargain of the group could be Daymeion Hughes of Cal. He's a read-and-react cornerback but doesn't run very fast. Hughes was clocked at 4.65. Nathan Vasher of Texas ran a bad 40 coming out of school, but he ended up starting for the Bears and going to a Pro Bowl.

8. Defense or offense? The trends in the first round of recent drafts have favored defense. Teams are getting better athletes on defense to counter quick-throwing offensive schemes. The strange part of this draft is that the top five players on most boards are on offense -- Johnson, Russell, Peterson, Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas and Quinn. That's rare. Four of those five should go in the top five. After that, though, it turns into a defensive draft. Don't be surprised if 18 defensive players end up being taken in the first round.

9. Defensive 3-4 schemes are changing the world: The 49ers are moving to the 3-4 full time this year, and the Cardinals are thinking about going 3-4. A 3-4 defense requires bigger linebackers, bigger defensive linemen and cornerbacks who have enough bulk to tackle. If the Cardinals make the conversion, it would increase the number of 3-4 teams to nine. Such moves juggle ratings. Smaller linebackers and smaller defensive ends won't project as top picks in 3-4 defenses, just as bigger, slower linebackers won't translate as well in 4-3 schemes. When you hear teams talk about having only 18 to 20 first-round grades in a 32-team draft, don't think there aren't enough good players to fill out a 32-team first round. The more teams diversify into the 3-4, the more those ratings will be skewed.

10. Risers and fallers: Safety LaRon Landry, defensive tackle Amobi Okoye and cornerbacks Hall and Revis have risen into possible top-10 picks. Left tackle Joe Staley of Central Michigan is rising as a sure first-round pick. Cornerback Houston could get into the first round. Wide receiver Meachem could crack the top 10. The ones who have dropped are wide receiver Ginn (concerns about his foot sprain), defensive tackle Alan Branch of Michigan, Jarrett and (to some degree) Quinn, who could fall to the Vikings at No. 7.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
 
massraider said:
If the Browns were interested in 1.1, I think we would have heard about it.

I don't think anyone wants 1.1, and I don't think anyone believes we're taking CJ, so 1.2 is the spot to get him.
Click to expand...

Nobody wants 1.1 because everyone is confident that we will screw up and fall all overourselves for "potential" and "upside". I'd love to give them a kick in the teeth.
 
POSTED 6:08 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2007

LIONS PLAN TO PICK JOHNSON

Adam Schefter of NFL Network reports that the Lions have decided that, barring a blockbuster offer, they will use the No. 2 overall pick in the draft -- and they will select receiver Calvin Johnson if, as expected, he is available.

Schefter says that offensive coordinator Mike Martz was one of the key cogs in the decision, based on his explanation to the the powers-that-be as to how he would use Johnson.

We'd previously heard that the Lions will draft Johnson and then maybe trade him. But maybe, just maybe, the Lions will use their fourth first-round pick in the past decade on Johnson, and keep him.
PFT.com
 
Of course they plan to select him, but real question is will they retain him?
 
Mayock thinks it's CJ.

1. Oakland Raiders: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
NFL.com

He's pretty accurate.....

also

9. Miami Dolphins: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
 
Mayock is probably just guessing like the rest of us, but I do appreciate his player analysis.
 
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