Angry Pope
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Scramble for the Ball: NFC Over-Unders Part II
8/24/2006
by Bill Barnwell and Ian Dembsky
Bill: This week, we conclude our look at the Over/Under lines for NFL teams by focusing on the NFC’s better half. Among the eight teams included are the Buccaneers, Ian’s favorite team, and the Giants, my own. It’s with this in mind that I should throw out a bit of a reminder to those newer readers I’ve seen in the comment threads who aren’t familiar with the Scramble for the Ball series: There are many, many articles on this site that involve excellent objective analysis, mounds of research, and careful study. Scramble for the Ball is not any of those things, although we certainly reserve the right to use them. Scramble’s an almost entirely opinion-based column, especially when it comes to the topic of gambling, like we’ve been discussing for the last month. Ian is more inclined to use his gut when gambling. I am more inclined to use data, as my gut has steered me toward Josh “There’s been a little complication with my complication” Beckett the last two years in fantasy baseball in as many leagues as possible. That, however, is a painful and irrelevant digression.
Ian: Isn’t it Josh “Gopherball” Beckett? Anyways, good point about the column. My writings are indeed based more on my gut feel than the numbers. Of course, my gut instinct has led me to winning my picks pool the past several years, winning most of my fantasy leagues, and (perhaps most importantly) last season’s Loser League title. I even went 17-0 my junior year of high school when predicting my “Lock of the Week” against the spread. I wasn’t a gambler back then, but it turns out one of my friends was, and made quite a bit of money based on my recommendations.
Enough of that; on to the last installment in this Over/Under series…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (o/u 8.0)
Bill: I should really leave most of this to Ian since this is his team, but I will say simply that I think New Orleans and Atlanta are going to win more games, and Carolina isn’t giving up much ground. Those wins have to come from somewhere. Under.
Ian: Ah, my beloved Bucs. The jersey names have gone from Testaverde to Dunn to K. Johnson and now to C. Williams, but the love remains the same. How to predict my own team? Should I be honest in that I think they’re headed for the over, or go for the always-reliable “reverse jinx” and predict a three-win season? What the heck, I’ll go with the truth. This is a 10-win team.
Tampa Bay has an excellent ground game, led by last season’s Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams. As long as he can avoid foot problems, the Tampa rushing attack will remain strong. They also have one of the league’s better backups in Michael Pittman. The entire offensive line returns from last season, while being helped by their two top draft picks and some free agent acquisitions. Chris Simms looked solid starting last season and should improve. Galloway should return to earth a bit, but Michael Clayton can’t possibly be as bad as he was last year. Alex Smith had the kind of rookie season that points toward a solid, productive career. This is an offense that’s going places, by ground and by air.
The defense continues to be among the league’s better ones, lead still by All-Pro Derrick Brooks. He may not have the sideline-to-sideline burst he had in his younger days, but he’s still a leader and about as sure a tackler as you’ll find. Simeon Rice has developed his all around game to help with the run. Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are great against both the pass and the run. Booger McFarland and Chris Hovan form a great interior defensive line. As long as Monte Kiffin is in charge, this is a defense that will keep its opponents in check.
You like New Orleans and Atlanta, but I don’t see them threatening the Bucs. Tampa’s solid all over the field, and their on their way to a season with Over eight wins.
Philadelphia Eagles (o/u 8.5)
Bill: This line seems awfully low for a team that was just subject to Murphy’s Law last season. Then again, there’s a reason the dozens of Leroy Sportsbooks didn’t become the Barnwell House of Sports Booking while I was in Vegas. I’m going to go against Vegas and say this is a mortal lock for Over though, for several reasons. The Eagles schedule is a weak one — 23rd in the NFL. They’ve strengthened the offensive line, and if Donovan McNabb has all day to throw, it won’t matter if he’s got Todd Benzinger and Reggie Theus instead of Pinkston and Brown for wide receivers, he’s going to find people. Finally, you remember the whole Super Bowl loser’s curse: going back to 2000, teams who lose in the Super Bowl average a shade over 6 wins a season the year after? Well, in the second year after their Super Bowl defeat, those teams win an average of 9.5 games.
Ian: The NFC East looks to be very competitive this season. All four teams are ranked in the top half of the NFC, with Philadelphia the lowest of the four. That makes sense. The Giants have a maturing Eli, the Redskins had a great season last year and seem to be adding more talent than they’re losing, and Dallas has Parcells and T.O. Philly lost Owens, and hasn’t done much to replace him in the lineup. So, gamblers are likely to believe more in the Eagles’ divisional foes. You can take advantage.
I’m not about to compare Donovan McNabb to Tom Brady in the general sense, but McNabb possesses the Brady-like quality of simply getting the ball to the open man. He’s got an accurate throw, and he’s good at spreading the ball around between wideouts, tight ends and running backs. He also is good about running when the opportunity presents itself to keep the chains moving. With a healthy McNabb at quarterback, as long as he doesn’t have a prima donna receiver bitching him out on the sidelines, the Eagles are going to be in good shape to win a lot of games.
This division will be a tight one; no team is likely to dominate their NFC East foes. The Eagles will rebound from last season to regain their status as a perennial playoff contender. Nine wins should be attainable, I’m also going Over.
Bill: On a side note, the man famous for setting up Vegas odds in the eighties and nineties has a fine, fine product for sale on eBay. I know there has to be one reader out there who has one of these things. Or one column co-writer.
Chicago Bears (o/u 9.0)
Bill: In 2005, the NFL’s schedulemakers blessed the Bears with the third-easiest schedule in football. This led to an 11 win season and a playoff birth. Well, this year, the schedule-makers decided to get their revenge and show the Bears that they can’t just rely on an easy schedule to rack up wins by … giving them the easiest schedule in football?!? This isn’t how the scheduling’s supposed to work. Regardless, Bears’ opponents are projected to have an average DVOA of -9.6 percent over the course of the season, the lowest such number in the league. Thanks, NFC North.
I wrote in the Packers section of last week’s column that I thought the Bears would regress to the mean; but the schedule will mitigate some of the drop. I’m worried about team chemistry here, though — the team’s best offensive player and probably best defensive player both want new contracts and have been expressing their frustration pretty vociferously. Lance Briggs even got demoted to the second string for a couple of days so Leon Joe could start instead. When I hear the name Leon Joe, it makes me think of Glass Joe and that puts me in a good mood. Let’s say Over because of the offensive improvement combined with the weak schedule, with a side prop bet that the Bears will win more games than Rex Grossman will start. I know the words “prop bet” just made Ian’s ears perk up.
Ian: I once went through a phase where I’d bet that a given hockey player wouldn’t score a goal that night. Sure, I had to lay money, but I think I was 10-for-10 on those bets before walking away ahead. Did I mention that if Steve McNair leads the NFL in touchdown passes I win $1,000? Yup, I love prop bets.
Bill: You are really pinning your hopes on the Ravens passing attack this season. You are a brave, brave man Ian.
Ian: Oh, right, the Bears. In a division where Brett Favre, Brad Johnson and Jon Kitna are your opposing quarterbacks, defense can definitely win you games. Thankfully, the Bears have an excellent defense, built on speed, speed, and more speed. You’re not going to run away from Bears tacklers. They’re agile, they tackle well, and they’re the kind of players that swarm to the ball, never giving up on a play. The offense still has a ways to go to impress me, though Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson should do a good job of motivating each other to stay at the top of their game. Muhsin Muhammad can still make plays. This offense should make enough of them to help this Bears team make the Over.
Bill: Another quick side note: don’t ever make a prop bet that involves Shaquille O’Neal making free throws. If you do, don’t watch him miss free throws while you are playing $2/$5 NL Hold’Em and downing Corona’s at the Rio. This is a bad idea.
cont'd...
8/24/2006
by Bill Barnwell and Ian Dembsky
Bill: This week, we conclude our look at the Over/Under lines for NFL teams by focusing on the NFC’s better half. Among the eight teams included are the Buccaneers, Ian’s favorite team, and the Giants, my own. It’s with this in mind that I should throw out a bit of a reminder to those newer readers I’ve seen in the comment threads who aren’t familiar with the Scramble for the Ball series: There are many, many articles on this site that involve excellent objective analysis, mounds of research, and careful study. Scramble for the Ball is not any of those things, although we certainly reserve the right to use them. Scramble’s an almost entirely opinion-based column, especially when it comes to the topic of gambling, like we’ve been discussing for the last month. Ian is more inclined to use his gut when gambling. I am more inclined to use data, as my gut has steered me toward Josh “There’s been a little complication with my complication” Beckett the last two years in fantasy baseball in as many leagues as possible. That, however, is a painful and irrelevant digression.
Ian: Isn’t it Josh “Gopherball” Beckett? Anyways, good point about the column. My writings are indeed based more on my gut feel than the numbers. Of course, my gut instinct has led me to winning my picks pool the past several years, winning most of my fantasy leagues, and (perhaps most importantly) last season’s Loser League title. I even went 17-0 my junior year of high school when predicting my “Lock of the Week” against the spread. I wasn’t a gambler back then, but it turns out one of my friends was, and made quite a bit of money based on my recommendations.
Enough of that; on to the last installment in this Over/Under series…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (o/u 8.0)
Bill: I should really leave most of this to Ian since this is his team, but I will say simply that I think New Orleans and Atlanta are going to win more games, and Carolina isn’t giving up much ground. Those wins have to come from somewhere. Under.
Ian: Ah, my beloved Bucs. The jersey names have gone from Testaverde to Dunn to K. Johnson and now to C. Williams, but the love remains the same. How to predict my own team? Should I be honest in that I think they’re headed for the over, or go for the always-reliable “reverse jinx” and predict a three-win season? What the heck, I’ll go with the truth. This is a 10-win team.
Tampa Bay has an excellent ground game, led by last season’s Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams. As long as he can avoid foot problems, the Tampa rushing attack will remain strong. They also have one of the league’s better backups in Michael Pittman. The entire offensive line returns from last season, while being helped by their two top draft picks and some free agent acquisitions. Chris Simms looked solid starting last season and should improve. Galloway should return to earth a bit, but Michael Clayton can’t possibly be as bad as he was last year. Alex Smith had the kind of rookie season that points toward a solid, productive career. This is an offense that’s going places, by ground and by air.
The defense continues to be among the league’s better ones, lead still by All-Pro Derrick Brooks. He may not have the sideline-to-sideline burst he had in his younger days, but he’s still a leader and about as sure a tackler as you’ll find. Simeon Rice has developed his all around game to help with the run. Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are great against both the pass and the run. Booger McFarland and Chris Hovan form a great interior defensive line. As long as Monte Kiffin is in charge, this is a defense that will keep its opponents in check.
You like New Orleans and Atlanta, but I don’t see them threatening the Bucs. Tampa’s solid all over the field, and their on their way to a season with Over eight wins.
Philadelphia Eagles (o/u 8.5)
Bill: This line seems awfully low for a team that was just subject to Murphy’s Law last season. Then again, there’s a reason the dozens of Leroy Sportsbooks didn’t become the Barnwell House of Sports Booking while I was in Vegas. I’m going to go against Vegas and say this is a mortal lock for Over though, for several reasons. The Eagles schedule is a weak one — 23rd in the NFL. They’ve strengthened the offensive line, and if Donovan McNabb has all day to throw, it won’t matter if he’s got Todd Benzinger and Reggie Theus instead of Pinkston and Brown for wide receivers, he’s going to find people. Finally, you remember the whole Super Bowl loser’s curse: going back to 2000, teams who lose in the Super Bowl average a shade over 6 wins a season the year after? Well, in the second year after their Super Bowl defeat, those teams win an average of 9.5 games.
Ian: The NFC East looks to be very competitive this season. All four teams are ranked in the top half of the NFC, with Philadelphia the lowest of the four. That makes sense. The Giants have a maturing Eli, the Redskins had a great season last year and seem to be adding more talent than they’re losing, and Dallas has Parcells and T.O. Philly lost Owens, and hasn’t done much to replace him in the lineup. So, gamblers are likely to believe more in the Eagles’ divisional foes. You can take advantage.
I’m not about to compare Donovan McNabb to Tom Brady in the general sense, but McNabb possesses the Brady-like quality of simply getting the ball to the open man. He’s got an accurate throw, and he’s good at spreading the ball around between wideouts, tight ends and running backs. He also is good about running when the opportunity presents itself to keep the chains moving. With a healthy McNabb at quarterback, as long as he doesn’t have a prima donna receiver bitching him out on the sidelines, the Eagles are going to be in good shape to win a lot of games.
This division will be a tight one; no team is likely to dominate their NFC East foes. The Eagles will rebound from last season to regain their status as a perennial playoff contender. Nine wins should be attainable, I’m also going Over.
Bill: On a side note, the man famous for setting up Vegas odds in the eighties and nineties has a fine, fine product for sale on eBay. I know there has to be one reader out there who has one of these things. Or one column co-writer.
Chicago Bears (o/u 9.0)
Bill: In 2005, the NFL’s schedulemakers blessed the Bears with the third-easiest schedule in football. This led to an 11 win season and a playoff birth. Well, this year, the schedule-makers decided to get their revenge and show the Bears that they can’t just rely on an easy schedule to rack up wins by … giving them the easiest schedule in football?!? This isn’t how the scheduling’s supposed to work. Regardless, Bears’ opponents are projected to have an average DVOA of -9.6 percent over the course of the season, the lowest such number in the league. Thanks, NFC North.
I wrote in the Packers section of last week’s column that I thought the Bears would regress to the mean; but the schedule will mitigate some of the drop. I’m worried about team chemistry here, though — the team’s best offensive player and probably best defensive player both want new contracts and have been expressing their frustration pretty vociferously. Lance Briggs even got demoted to the second string for a couple of days so Leon Joe could start instead. When I hear the name Leon Joe, it makes me think of Glass Joe and that puts me in a good mood. Let’s say Over because of the offensive improvement combined with the weak schedule, with a side prop bet that the Bears will win more games than Rex Grossman will start. I know the words “prop bet” just made Ian’s ears perk up.
Ian: I once went through a phase where I’d bet that a given hockey player wouldn’t score a goal that night. Sure, I had to lay money, but I think I was 10-for-10 on those bets before walking away ahead. Did I mention that if Steve McNair leads the NFL in touchdown passes I win $1,000? Yup, I love prop bets.
Bill: You are really pinning your hopes on the Ravens passing attack this season. You are a brave, brave man Ian.
Ian: Oh, right, the Bears. In a division where Brett Favre, Brad Johnson and Jon Kitna are your opposing quarterbacks, defense can definitely win you games. Thankfully, the Bears have an excellent defense, built on speed, speed, and more speed. You’re not going to run away from Bears tacklers. They’re agile, they tackle well, and they’re the kind of players that swarm to the ball, never giving up on a play. The offense still has a ways to go to impress me, though Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson should do a good job of motivating each other to stay at the top of their game. Muhsin Muhammad can still make plays. This offense should make enough of them to help this Bears team make the Over.
Bill: Another quick side note: don’t ever make a prop bet that involves Shaquille O’Neal making free throws. If you do, don’t watch him miss free throws while you are playing $2/$5 NL Hold’Em and downing Corona’s at the Rio. This is a bad idea.
cont'd...