Make your pick ! @13

[alteredst8]

That said, if they flat like Penix better, he doesn't have to start him right way.

Of course not, but you had best be making a huge investment in RT. As in it’s probably worth more than anything other than Wilkins we could have spent money on in FA. Like Elephant Man would have been worth to us like 2x what he got in NY to us. Or someone else along those lines at least on a one year deal.

Like I said I like Penix as a prospect the moves we have made don’t seem to fit what he does and or need IMO

 

[alteredst8]

Even moves like Minshew who is mobile in the pocket (not a runner). Does not have the biggest arm (its weak ish) screams to me avoid the sack get the ball out quick. Even Amir Abdullah and Mattison signings show that having a RB who can catch were of high importance. Helps that Mattison can pass block as well.

Outside zone RB schemes agile OL who lack a bit of power but can get down field. It just all screams to me Nix, JJ, Rattler, MayeB. Pretty much anything but Penix…

 

[Sleet]

I’ve got it narrowed down to 5 options at pick 13. I am also tossing in a trade as well. I am sure the value isn’t perfect so @Sleet will break it down as to why it won’t work.

Why no OL?

 

[alteredst8]

Why know OL?

Br.Net kicked all OL to the curb in earlier poll.

 

[Sleet]

Br.Net kicked all OL to the curb in earlier poll.

Been in depositions all week.

 

[Birdwell]

I voted for Bo but Penix ok with me too. I think both guys are worth taking a swing. I don't give a shit what people say about value here, if you think they can play QB is worth the shot when you don't have one on the roster.

You don't. Good for you.

If the Raiders have a grade on any available QB that says he has value at 13, fine. I don't know of anyone who has that level of grade on Nix or Penix.

There are going to be 10 year starting Ts available at 13. If any of the CBs there are graded top 10, you'd have to take one.

I'd trade down, get an additional second rounder and grab whoever at 22. I could stomach either of the second tier QBs there, though I'd take JPJ and have him at RG.

 

[Chris_77]

You don't. Good for you.

If the Raiders have a grade on any available QB that says he has value at 13, fine. I don't know of anyone who has that level of grade on Nix or Penix.

There are going to be 10 year starting Ts available at 13. If any of the CBs there are graded top 10, you'd have to take one.

I'd trade down, get an additional second rounder and grab whoever at 22. I could stomach either of the second tier QBs there, though I'd take JPJ and have him at RG.

Value isn’t purely linear. Within reason a lower ceiling QB is still more valuable than a higher ceiling player at other positions. Especially factoring contractual considerations.

 

[Birdwell]

Value isn’t purely linear. Within reason a lower ceiling QB is still more valuable than a higher ceiling player at other positions. Especially factoring contractual considerations.

No, value is not purely linear. Otherwise, any idiot could create a draft board and just pick the guy with the highest board value with each pick.

If I rate a guy 31 and pick him 25, that is one thing. Having a second round grade on a guy and picking him based on NEED is a reach.

Bad teams reach. There are going to be guys with less ability to start year one in rounds three and four and maybe even five than Nix and Penix. I want a QB in this draft, and by preference that would be JJ, Daniels or Maye. I want no part of Williams. Would be okay with Nix or Penix in the second or trading down. There are going to be players who will help this team at 13 more than Nix or Penix. My opinion, obviously.

 

[alteredst8]

No, value is not purely linear. Otherwise, any idiot could create a draft board and just pick the guy with the highest board value with each pick.

If I rate a guy 31 and pick him 25, that is one thing. Having a second round grade on a guy and picking him based on NEED is a reach.

Bad teams reach. There are going to be guys with less ability to start year one in rounds three and four and maybe even five than Nix and Penix. I want a QB in this draft, and by preference that would be JJ, Daniels or Maye. I want no part of Williams. Would be okay with Nix or Penix in the second or trading down. There are going to be players who will help this team at 13 more than Nix or Penix. My opinion, obviously.

Out of curiosity what players outside of QB do you feel would translate to more wins from the 1st round?

Are they separated that far from the players at the same position in the second round?

Take JPJ (who I know you like) could he be that much more impactful than say a guy like Barton or Frazier? I look at Indy who arguably took one of the best IOL prospects in many, many years and it has not translated into them being a real playoff contender. Even one of the early CB’s could be an option. Are there any CB’s that are far and away that much better than the 2nd grouping?

I get the desire to use a linear board and just check it off as they are drafted. I just think the overall impact of a QB and starting that development has more impact than any other player we could be looking at. I’d argue there is like 4 non QB’s in the draft that could hold enough value to potentially ignore QB. 3 WR’a and one OT.

OT is an exceptionally deep class I’m not sure if the 2nd or 3rd OT is that far ahead of the 7th OT to where I don’t feel as though I still get a nice player that with coaching can still get the job done at a high level.

If we don’t go QB we are accepting that it will be another 3-4 years before we can compete as we are kicking the can on not only drafting a viable option at QB but starting his development. At that point we are truly wasting money on a guy like Adams. Unless we think AO'C has a legitimate shot of developing into a playoff caliber QB going forward.

 

[Chris_77]

No, value is not purely linear. Otherwise, any idiot could create a draft board and just pick the guy with the highest board value with each pick.

If I rate a guy 31 and pick him 25, that is one thing. Having a second round grade on a guy and picking him based on NEED is a reach.

Bad teams reach. There are going to be guys with less ability to start year one in rounds three and four and maybe even five than Nix and Penix. I want a QB in this draft, and by preference that would be JJ, Daniels or Maye. I want no part of Williams. Would be okay with Nix or Penix in the second or trading down. There are going to be players who will help this team at 13 more than Nix or Penix. My opinion, obviously.

What is a second round grade anyway? I think people get a little carried away with this. Do you think the guy can start and win games for you and where do you think you can get him? That’s what matters. I don’t see much difference in expectation for a QB drafted outside the top 10 of the first round or in the second round. It’s still a premium pick spent on a guy you expect to be your long term starter. The only question is whether that guy will be available come round 2. This year? Probably not. At the end of the day it’s only one draft pick in an otherwise pretty weak looking draft anyway.

 

[alteredst8]

At the end of the day it’s only one draft pick in an otherwise pretty weak looking draft anyway.

I’m not sure about being a weak draft. At least in the areas where we need the most help. OL specifically is being lauded as being very deep. CB is definitely not as top heavy, but plenty of options for mid tier guys, I’d say more skilled players than athletic freaks though.

Bottom line what we need from the draft should provide solid options all the way into the 4th maybe 5th round if we get lucky.

 

[RF34]

 

[Desert Rat]

Why know OL?

He's trying to come up with every scenario possible for the board to say they are OK with Nix at 13.

 

[godeep811]

Outside of Penix having the obvious injury history, there a few other things that concern me with regards to the Raiders drafting him.

#1. We do not have the OL to provide protection ATM. Our right side is a huge question mark. Who do you throw in there to protect his blindside and not get him hurt again. You can’t just plop in some 2nd round and 3rd round rookie at RG and RT and hope it works out.

#2 He doesn’t do as well with pressure as the other QB’s. We talk about needing a “mobile” QB yet in our desperation to find a QB we are considering spending a top pick on a guy who doesn’t handle pressure well and won’t have a solid OL on his blind side to help him out. Add to that he doesn’t run well or often at all.

#3 Penix’s passing game is very reliant on deep passing as that is his strength. That’s what he does and why everyone likes him. The quick passing game we will need to implement early on for him, doesn’t suit what he does well. He won’t have much time to go deep very often. We don’t have the infrastructure to make it work.

#4 Bo Nix is available…. Don’t fuck this up TT… take the guy who can complete a pass with pressure in his face, who can avoid a sack, who can make a run for the 1st down, and works best with what Getsy does. A combination of a WC Spread offense.

Nix likely going to Denver. They need a QB desperately and Nix fits what Payton likes in QBs

 

[Birdwell]

The desperation of many to take Nix or Penix at 13 means no team can get to the playoffs without a star QB. Or win a playoff game. Or get to the SB. Or win the SB. Yes, the QB handles almost every offensive snap, and so has a hand in how the O does. And scoring is how you win. (Losing 0-3 makes that point unbelievably clear.)

The D last year took a tremendous step forward. Will it be a Baltimore/'85 Bears D in 2024? Almost certainly no. However, this team has had a bottom seven D for more than a decade, and that skews how we see winning.

I don't see O'Connell as a top-10 QB, due to his arm and apparent and near complete lack of mobility. Whether it's him or Minshew or a rookie, the O-line needs to be better than last years because bottom 5 running won't allow anything positive. Those little 300 pound guys at G and C are getting destroyed by guys their size who are stronger and quicker. However, his performance showed more of his floor than his ceiling with the O being designed for Yimmy Yee and him getting no starter snaps in practice during camp or the first half of the season.

A QB we draft must have a plus deep ball, be able to move enough to not be last year's O'Connell, be a leader, and have the football smarts to consistently get the O into a good play. Maye and Daniels and Penix have that arm. Rattler does, though only if the team is sold on him do I see him as desirable.

There will be a less high end/second tier QB class next season. Coming into this year, I liked Cam Ward a lot as a prospect.

is there a shut-down CB in this draft? Maybe. McKinstry didn't get thrown at last season, and even with the season that Arnold had it tells you something. The kid from Toledo looked like nails in the Senior Bowl so in terms of basic talent and technique he could be. Not saying either are, but a "you don't throw at me" CB is more impactful than a JAG QB -- provided other parts of the D are like what the Raiders have now.

None of the QBs on the roster or a rookie are going to do squat with the O-line. Need a G and a T, and it's Penix we really need that RT. Poor G play gets the pass rush up the middle, and we had that last season. So yeah, getting a solid T and a much better G could make a bigger difference than a JAG QB.

People arguing against O'Connell -- I wonder how much better you KNOW Nix or Penix will be to draft them at 13 rather than someone else.

 

[alteredst8]

I’d still go Bo!
He’s been my #2 QB before people even said Jayden was top 3 worthy so.. I’m sticking with what I got

 

[Chris_77]

The desperation of many to take Nix or Penix at 13 means no team can get to the playoffs without a star QB. Or win a playoff game. Or get to the SB. Or win the SB. Yes, the QB handles almost every offensive snap, and so has a hand in how the O does. And scoring is how you win. (Losing 0-3 makes that point unbelievably clear.)

The D last year took a tremendous step forward. Will it be a Baltimore/'85 Bears D in 2024? Almost certainly no. However, this team has had a bottom seven D for more than a decade, and that skews how we see winning.

I don't see O'Connell as a top-10 QB, due to his arm and apparent and near complete lack of mobility. Whether it's him or Minshew or a rookie, the O-line needs to be better than last years because bottom 5 running won't allow anything positive. Those little 300 pound guys at G and C are getting destroyed by guys their size who are stronger and quicker. However, his performance showed more of his floor than his ceiling with the O being designed for Yimmy Yee and him getting no starter snaps in practice during camp or the first half of the season.

A QB we draft must have a plus deep ball, be able to move enough to not be last year's O'Connell, be a leader, and have the football smarts to consistently get the O into a good play. Maye and Daniels and Penix have that arm. Rattler does, though only if the team is sold on him do I see him as desirable.

There will be a less high end/second tier QB class next season. Coming into this year, I liked Cam Ward a lot as a prospect.

is there a shut-down CB in this draft? Maybe. McKinstry didn't get thrown at last season, and even with the season that Arnold had it tells you something. The kid from Toledo looked like nails in the Senior Bowl so in terms of basic talent and technique he could be. Not saying either are, but a "you don't throw at me" CB is more impactful than a JAG QB -- provided other parts of the D are like what the Raiders have now.

None of the QBs on the roster or a rookie are going to do squat with the O-line. Need a G and a T, and it's Penix we really need that RT. Poor G play gets the pass rush up the middle, and we had that last season. So yeah, getting a solid T and a much better G could make a bigger difference than a JAG QB.

People arguing against O'Connell -- I wonder how much better you KNOW Nix or Penix will be to draft them at 13 rather than someone else.

What’s your definition of a JAG QB? A guy that can win you games with the right supporting cast is a $40m plus a year player not on a rookie contract. Even a good, not great QB is worth a first round pick if it gives you 5 years to invest in the rest of your team. 5 years is a lifetime in the NFL. The floor is just as important as the ceiling. Even if Trevor Lawrence never lives up to the hype, Jacksonville is still ahead of the game just having their starting QB situation settled for a few years. It doesn’t become problematic until it’s time for a new deal.

People arguing against O'Connell -- I wonder how much better you KNOW Nix or Penix will be to draft them at 13 rather than someone else.

That’s an impossible standard. Nobody KNOWS anything with regard to the draft, least of all us armchair GMs.

 

[Crossbones]

Nobody KNOWS anything with regard to the draft

Give it another 4 weeks we'll all be smart.

 

[Birdwell]

What’s your definition of a JAG QB? A guy that can win you games with the right supporting cast is a $40m plus a year player not on a rookie contract. Even a good, not great QB is worth a first round pick if it gives you 5 years to invest in the rest of your team. 5 years is a lifetime in the NFL. The floor is just as important as the ceiling. Even if Trevor Lawrence never lives up to the hype, Jacksonville is still ahead of the game just having their starting QB situation settled for a few years. It doesn’t become problematic until it’s time for a new deal.



That’s an impossible standard. Nobody KNOWS anything with regard to the draft, least of all us armchair GMs.

You just said Lawrence right now is a JAG and worth a first round pick even though his numbers are meh. Yeah, guys off their first contract get crazy money. Would you trade 13 for Baker Mayfield?

There is also opportunity cost. Taking a guy 20-30 picks early when there is a guy whose value is much higher.

A necessary logical consequence of your argument is that every team that doesn't have a top-10 QB needs to draft a QB in the first round. That means Rattler also should be a first round pick.

 

[Chris_77]

You just said Lawrence right now is a JAG and worth a first round pick even though his numbers are meh. Yeah, guys off their first contract get crazy money. Would you trade 13 for Baker Mayfield?

There is also opportunity cost. Taking a guy 20-30 picks early when there is a guy whose value is much higher.

A necessary logical consequence of your argument is that every team that doesn't have a top-10 QB needs to draft a QB in the first round. That means Rattler also should be a first round pick.

Mayfield is an interesting question. I’d probably take the opportunity for higher upside with one of the QBs in the draft but assuming that isn’t an option, I’d might trade 13 for 5 years of cost controlled Baker Mayfield. I’m not 100 percent sure the variance in his play qualifies as someone you can win with though. I don’t necessarily think you target a JAG anyway, but it’s not a failure if you end up with a solid but not spectacular starter at the position at the cost of a single draft pick because of the financial resources it frees up for the rest of the team.

Regarding the opportunity cost, again, we’re back to the real definition of value. Will Shields is one of the best to ever do it at his position while Phillip Rivers is not quite HOF worthy by most accounts, but who would you draft first? I’m taking Rivers 10 out of 10. Better player doesn’t always equate to better value.

Your last point is a bit hyperbolic. You have to at least feel comfortable that a guy can be a 5 year starter for this to even be a conversation. The majority of this forum expects Rattler will be out of the league in 5 years. The premise was “can you win with this guy with the right supporting cast” as the acceptable floor for a first round QB. I suppose if a team felt Rattler was that guy, it would make sense for them to draft him in the first round.