Make your pick ! @13

Pick 1

  • Terrion Arnold

    Votes: 1 6.3%
  • Quinyon Mitchell

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Michael Penix

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Bo Nix

    Votes: 4 25.0%
  • Trade Eagles we get 22 and 53 they get 13

    Votes: 4 25.0%

  • Total voters
    16

alteredst8

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I’ve got it narrowed down to 5 options at pick 13. I am also tossing in a trade as well. I am sure the value isn’t perfect so @Sleet will break it down as to why it won’t work.
 
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I voted for Bo but Penix ok with me too. I think both guys are worth taking a swing. I don't give a shit what people say about value here, if you think they can play QB is worth the shot when you don't have one on the roster.
 
Outside of Penix having the obvious injury history, there a few other things that concern me with regards to the Raiders drafting him.

#1. We do not have the OL to provide protection ATM. Our right side is a huge question mark. Who do you throw in there to protect his blindside and not get him hurt again. You can’t just plop in some 2nd round and 3rd round rookie at RG and RT and hope it works out.

#2 He doesn’t do as well with pressure as the other QB’s. We talk about needing a “mobile” QB yet in our desperation to find a QB we are considering spending a top pick on a guy who doesn’t handle pressure well and won’t have a solid OL on his blind side to help him out. Add to that he doesn’t run well or often at all.

#3 Penix’s passing game is very reliant on deep passing as that is his strength. That’s what he does and why everyone likes him. The quick passing game we will need to implement early on for him, doesn’t suit what he does well. He won’t have much time to go deep very often. We don’t have the infrastructure to make it work.

#4 Bo Nix is available…. Don’t fuck this up TT… take the guy who can complete a pass with pressure in his face, who can avoid a sack, who can make a run for the 1st down, and works best with what Getsy does. A combination of a WC Spread offense.
 
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Outside of Penix having the obvious injury history, there a few other things that concern me with regards to the Raiders drafting him.

#1. We do not have the OL to provide protection ATM. Our right side is a huge question mark. Who do you throw in there to protect his blindside and not get him hurt again. You can’t just plop in some 2nd round and 3rd round rookie at RG and RT and hope it works out.

#2 He doesn’t do as well with pressure as the other QB’s. We talk about needing a “mobile” QB yet in our desperation to find a QB we are considering spending a top pick on a guy who doesn’t handle pressure well and won’t have a solid OL on his blind side to help him out. Add to that he doesn’t run well or often at all.

#3 Penix’s passing game is very reliant on deep passing as that is his strength. That’s what he does and why everyone likes him. The quick passing game we will need to implement early on for him, doesn’t suit what he does well. He won’t have much time to go deep very often. We don’t have the infrastructure to make it work.

#4 Bo Nix is available…. Don’t fuck this up TT… take the guy who can complete a pass with pressure in his face, who can avoid a sack, who can make a run for the 1st down, and works best with what Getsy does. A combination of a WC Spread offense.

Honest question... is there a body of evidence that he doesn't do well with pressure or is it just the Michigan game?
 
Honest question... is there a body of evidence that he doesn't do well with pressure or is it just the Michigan game?
Ya there were plenty of stats posted earlier about his thows under pressure especially when it’s up the gut and near his feet. I’ll post what was posted a while back as those things have not changed but maybe people forget. These are thing @007 talked about right after the Michigan game as being one of his knocks. There are other things I am sure that were posted as well, just not taking the time to pull it all up. It’s there to be found though.


This can be seen in the statistics. Penix attempted 107 passes while under pressure this season (again, per PFF), and he completed just 41.8% of them for 1072 yards, six TDs, and five interceptions. By comparison, Bo Nix completed 67.3%, J.J. McCarthy completed 63.4%, and Jayden Daniels completed an even 50%.Feb 6, 2024



QB Prospects Under Pressure in 2023 Season​


The below data is from PFF and is for the 2024 QB prospects, during their 2023 regular seasons. My main takeaways are below:
-Drake Maye has a poor PFF passing grade under pressure and is only completing 43% of his passes. He is however taking the 2nd deepest passes downfield, but his adjusted completion % is average and NFL passer rating is very low.
-PFF graded Caleb Williams very poorly under pressure. He is only completing 47% of passes under pressure and his adjusted completion rate is even lower at 42%. Caleb has the highest turnover worthy play rate when pressured and is holding onto the ball the longest.
-Jayden Daniels has an average PFF passing grade under pressure, but very high running grade with his scrambling ability. He has thrown zero interceptions under pressure this year according to PFF. He has a sky high NFL passer rating and big time throw rate, but the 2nd highest time to throw.
-Bo Nix is throwing significantly shorter passes than the other QBs, but he is very high efficiency. His NFL passer rating and 1st down rate on pressures is extremely high. He grades very well, but it is worth noting he is pressured half as often as the other prospects.
-PFF graded JJ McCarthy very well under pressure and this was with an average ADOT. He has the second highest completion % in the group after Nix, but his ADOT is 4 yards greater. His NFL passer rating and 1st down rate on pressures arevery high and his receivers have let him down the most with drops, but he has the 2nd highest turnover worthy rate % after Caleb.
-Michael Penix has an average PFF grade under pressure. Penix is only completing 43% of his passes when under pressure, but his adj. completion rate is average amongst the prospects. Penix has been sacked second least, with the lowest time to throw, even though he leads all the other in ADOT. Penix converts pressures to first downs at the 2nd lowest rate in the group.
-Quin Ewers has an average PFF grade when pressured. His TD to INT ratio is the worst in the group. His completion % and adj. Completion % are about average, but he is the worst at turning pressures into first downs, but he also has the lowest turnover worthy play rate. Ewers has the highest pressure to sack ratio in the group.
r/NFL_Draft - QB Prospects Under Pressure in 2023 Season
 
He sliced and diced a great Texas defense the game before even when he was under pressure so he has shown he can do it.
What was the weakness of that Texas defense they talked about the entire game ?

I’ll give you a hint it was the 116th ranked Texas Longhorn Pass D
 
What was the weakness of that Texas defense they talked about the entire game ?

I’ll give you a hint it was the 116th ranked Texas Longhorn Pass D
I just rewatched Penix's plays and he was under pressure for a lot of the game, I believe that was what the question was... how does he do under pressure.
 
#4 Bo Nix is available…. Don’t fuck this up TT… take the guy who can complete a pass with pressure in his face, who can avoid a sack, who can make a run for the 1st down, and works best with what Getsy does. A combination of a WC Spread offense.

This is where I think I'm at. I don't have a preference between the two as players but at face value it seems like Nix is a better fit.
 
I just rewatched Penix's plays and he was under pressure for a lot of the game, I believe that was what the question was... how does he do under pressure.

That was the crux of my question. It seems like Michigan might just have been a different type of animal. I know I overreacted to it at the time. I think offensive system plays a lot into pressure ratings too. I wonder how much the pressure stat gets skewed for an offense that runs a lot of screens, plays that give up pressure by design? At any rate, I like them both.
 
That was the crux of my question. It seems like Michigan might just have been a different type of animal. I know I overreacted to it at the time. I think offensive system plays a lot into pressure ratings too. I wonder how much the pressure stat gets skewed for an offense that runs a lot of screens, plays that give up pressure by design? At any rate, I like them both.
Even though it wasn't Penix's best effort, his receivers really let him down that game IMO. Way too many drops that could've went for big plays. It wasn't his best game but his receivers didn't help him at all.
 
I just rewatched Penix's plays and he was under pressure for a lot of the game, I believe that was what the question was... how does he do under pressure.
He completes 42% of his passes 25 % less than Nic and 20% less than JJ… he also throws picks.. That was already answered. I was answering as to why he did good against the “Cherry Picked “ Texas team. Who happened to be the 116th ranked pass D as to why it may have gone well for him.
 
This is where I think I'm at. I don't have a preference between the two as players but at face value it seems like Nix is a better fit.
I well over value Nix and I wholeheartedly admit that. I just think what he does translates best to what we need. Give him one weapon that can threaten turning a 3 into a 30 and we are good. JMHO
 
I just rewatched Penix's plays and he was under pressure for a lot of the game, I believe that was what the question was... how does he do under pressure.

If we want to downplay Penix against Texas all you fucks better be moving Sweat and Murphy down your boards right?

The two DTs most pimped here got their shit pushed in by a big fat Penix.
 
Even though it wasn't Penix's best effort, his receivers really let him down that game IMO. Way too many drops that could've went for big plays. It wasn't his best game but his receivers didn't help him at all.
See this is where I think you are wrong to a degree. Yes his WR’s didn’t do what they always do. However as I noted even in my very first review of Penix. His WR’s bail him out as a passer a whole hell of a lot. They are very good at 50/50 balls and it’s why Odunze is a top WR in the draft. He is a prime Hopkins level of talent getting after the ball in 50/50 situations.

So to say they didn’t help him seems crazy to me. They have been the biggest contributors to his success. They have bailed him out of a shit ton of bad throws by just being better at fighting for the ball.

Washington lost that game by pressuring Penix. Washington’s run game not being able to get going, and Penix missing big throws in big moments. That and that stupid RT getting flagged and giving up pressure…
 
If we want to downplay Penix against Texas all you fucks better be moving Sweat and Murphy down your boards right?

The two DTs most pimped here got their shit pushed in by a big fat Penix.
Good thing I don’t have either that high…

Penix had a great game against Texas. But let’s not pretend they were a great pass defense LOL I mean they were ranked just ahead of Middle Tennessee and behind Baylor for one of the worst pass D’s in the nation.

Texas also ranked 78th in sack percentage as well. Just a different beast. Great run D though.
 
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See I would be fine with Penix as our QB we just don’t have the team to use him ATM. We just don’t. And based on what we have done it doesn’t look like we will.

If you or anyone wanted Penix you would have been screaming for a RT in FA . We would have been screaming for a G and to spend big on one. We would absolutely want a guy other than Adams who can get 50/50 balls.

It’s not that I don’t like the prospect, we are just not filled with players that fit him. We have a C and LG that can give up pressure up the gut. We have no RG no RT we don’t have a bell cow RB that can suck up defense and make them pay… we have none of that.

I mean how could this team even have Penix on their board as a potential top 13 pick without going out and ensuring you have a RT with starting experience. We need a QB who can be moved off his spot and still make accurate throws and or gets the ball out really fast.
 
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See I would be fine with Penix as our QB we just don’t have the team to use him ATM. We just don’t. And based on what we have done it doesn’t look like we will.

If you or anyone wanted Penix you would have been screaming for a RT in FA . We would have been screaming for a G and to spend big on one. We would absolutely want a guy other than Adams who can get 50/50 balls.

It’s not that I don’t like the prospect, we are just not filled with players that fit him. We have a C and LG that can give up pressure up the gut. We have no RG no RT we don’t have a bell cow RB that can suck up defense and make them pay… we have none of that.

I mean how could this team even have Penix on their board as a potential top 13 pick without going out and ensuring you have a RT with starting experience.

I agree with the premise that Nix is probably a better fit for what presumably is going to be a WCO.

That said, if they flat like Penix better, he doesn't have to start him right way.
 
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