Four Downs: Change abounds in AFC West
Mike Tanier / FootballOutsiders.com
There has been plenty of off-season player movement in the AFC West. And that is especially true of the Denver Broncos, who were wise to acquire the Falcons' top draft pick in the John Abraham trade.
Here is a team-by-team look at how each of the AFC West's teams have fared since the season ended and what each can do to improve itself in the upcoming draft.
Denver Broncos
Movin' on up
You know the details of the big trade: the Broncos gave up one of their two No. 1 picks — the 29th overall — along with a third-round pick this year and a fourth-round pick next year in exchange for the Falcons' No. 1 pick, the 15th selection in this year's draft. The Falcons then sent the Broncos' old pick to the Jets, who, in turn sent veteran John Abraham to Atlanta
You also probably found a copy of that draft pick value table on the web. Yep, the Broncos got a sweet deal. That 15th selection is worth 1,050 points on that mysterious table. They gave up at most 880 points of draft value, probably less, depending on the Broncos' 2006 record (and therefore, the value of that fourth-round selection).
So there's a good chance that the Broncos saw an opportunity to earn a tidy brokerage fee and made the deal without a specific first-round agenda. But many experts believe that the Broncos have something up their sleeves. The Denver Post dissected the trade on March 22 with the help of the ubiquitous Mel Kiper Jr. Kiper figured that the Broncos traded up to land a specific player who wouldn't be available with the 22nd overall pick, when the Broncos make their second selection of the round. Kiper mentioned two possible targets: Florida WR Chad Jackson and USC running back LenDale White.
Jackson would fill a need for a team that relies too much on aging Rod Smith, but Jackson could also be available 22nd overall. White is a Colorado native; so his name caused a stir in Denver. He's also a power back who would have a hard time finding a role now that Ron Dayne has been re-signed, and he has been a draftnik Mexican jumping bean, bouncing all over the first round because he didn't participate in the NFL Combine and has a tendency to gain weight (USC Pro Day is April 2; we'll all know more then). So count White out for now.
Other observers are hoping the Broncos package the two first-round picks to move up. Dave Krieger of the Knoxville News-Sentinel noted this week that the Almighty Draft Chart equates sum of the 15th and 22nd picks with the fourth pick overall. That might be pushing it, but the Broncos could easily trade into the top 10. Krieger wants either Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler or North Carolina State DE Mario Williams. Everyone covets Cutler these days — let's face it, all of us know a lot about him after watching Vanderbilt so closely over the past three years — but Williams would certainly be an asset in Denver.
This is all window-shopping, but Broncos observers all agree that the team is one or two true impact players away from getting over its playoff hump. They have no need to mess around with third- or fourth-round picks right now; the team is stocked with good starters and effective role players. Whether it's Jackson, Williams or one of the players listed below, they need someone to provide an extra jolt. Trading up in the draft was a great move.
Recent transactions
The Football Outsiders' spin on the players coming and going from Denver:
Defensive Line Moves: The Broncos signed Gerard Warren to a six-year contract, then acquired yet another former Cleveland Browns lineman: Kenard Lang inked a three-year deal to come to Denver. Oh, and another: former Browns DE Amon Gordon also signed with Denver. Warren was the big prize from last year's Cleveland roster raid; Lang replaces Trevor Pryce in the starting lineup but can also drop into coverage as a DE/OLB hybrid. The Broncos' defense ranked 15th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards (explained here) and dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate; so they aren't finished making upgrades on the defensive line.
Ron Dayne: Dayne is the next Tyrone Wheatley. Wheatley was a power back from a Big Ten school who produced jaw-dropping stats at the NCAA level and was drafted in the first round by the Giants, just like Dayne. The Giants discovered that Wheatley had below-average instincts, rudimentary skills as a blocker and receiver and no value on special teams; so they wrote him off and cut him loose, just as they did with Dayne. After a brief pit stop in Miami (where he never played a regular season game), Wheatley landed in Oakland, where he was used, effectively, as a committee back. Dayne's instincts have improved, and he still runs with great power and above-average speed. Mike Shanahan won't dwell on what he can't do, and he won't be disappointed in what he gets if he gives Dayne about 10 touches per game, more when the Broncos are killing the clock.
Mike Leach: Gotta have a long-snapper.
Draft preview
Let's start with an overview of the names being tossed out by the Internet's mock draft community, in addition to those listed above: Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB, Florida State; Jason Allen, S, Tennessee; Tamba Hali, DE, Penn State; Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State; Davin Joseph, G, Oklahoma; Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota. The latest FOXSports.com mock draft (version 5.0) lists Chad Jackson and Virginia Tech DB Jimmy Williams.
Many draftniks have Allen pegged as the ideal "second first-round pick" type of player: he has outstanding potential, but a 2005 hip injury makes him a huge risk. He and Williams are both safety/cornerback hybrids who could help most teams, but the Broncos invested heavily in their secondary last year. Hali and Wimbley are both logical choices who would upgrade the pass rush. Joseph is also a possibility, particularly with that second first-round selection; he's quick, smart and well-suited to the Broncos' scheme.
Assuming the Broncos don't spend an early-round pick on a running back (they won't), look for them to draft a runner on Day 2. Later picks will be used to create competition at wide receiver and round out the special teams.
