Drafting a first round QB is risky?

[007]

Stolen from another board, that I won't link, cuz that's not cool.

the guy makes some interesting points, and I wanted to show all the people who are thinking we can't go in that direction in April:

Drafting a QB is risky? Fact or Fiction???

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Well let's look at the last QB's drafted in round 1 since 2000.

Eli Manning-playoffs
Rivers-playoffs
Roethlisberger-Super Bowl
Smith-looking like a playoff team next year
Campbell-Starter
J.P. Losman-starter
Young-having a sensational rookie year
Leinart-having a very solid rookie year
Cutler-starter
Aaron Rodgers-jury is still out
Harrington-flopped with Detroit but starting for Miami during their winning streak
Rex Grossman-starter for Chicago-been to the playoffs
Patrick Ramsey-drafted #32 and looks like a career backup.
Byron Leftwich-will probably start for another team next year-been to the playoffs
David Carr-a flop in my opinion but still starting --->I think he is in a bad situation. A solid pro Nontheless.
Carson Palmer-All-Pro
Kyle Bollar-probably career backip
Chad Pennington-starter-been to the playoffs

There have been 18 QB's draft in round 1 in the last 7 years. Not 1 is out of the league. Only 1 has never been a starter(Rodgers), 4 aren't currently starting for their teams and of those 4 only Ramsey who was drafted at #32 looks to be a total career backup. Leftwich, Bollar and Rodgers will all probably get another shot at starting.
It is a myth that the QB position is a high hit or miss position. Since 2000, that's 7 years, only 1 QB out of 18 has no chance any longer to be a starter. That's about a 5% chance of total failure and even that guy is still a backup in the league.
If you discount the QB's who were drafted within 2 years and haven't really had the chance to get to the playoffs, 7 or 8 have or will reach the playoffs by this year out of 12. That's a 73% chance of making the playoffs.
Pro GM's who draft QB's aren't stupid, they've done their homework.
Just because there have been a few high profile flops, people exaggerate the consequences of drafting a QB.
I'd bet that of all the positions drafted since 2000, QB's have had less total flops that any other position although I haven't checked it out.

Also consider that guys like Harrington and Ramsey, Campbell and Couch all busted (Or look like busting) for teams that have notoriously weak GM's or scouting departments...

Something to consider, IMO.

A quick count makes it look like 25% of the first rounders (50% of the top ten picks) end up playoff and or Pro Bowl bound
50% look servicable as starters in the NFL and possibly even top tier guys.
25% look like backups or busts.

Worth the risk from where I sit.

 

[hawaiianboy]

Interesting... I'm certainly not adverse to taking Quinn...

You would probably have a similar ratio with 1st round backs as well.... I would imagine the same criteria could be used as a reason not to take a WR because it seems like a bunch of them have either sucked or their teams are mired in mediocrity...

 

[Crossbones]

Problem is Detroit will most surely take Quinn which will leave Johnson for us. He's not going to help this team at all. What a fucking mess.

 

[Limee]

Yes I saw that post and thought it was interesting. I am not sure if making the playoffs is a good judge of success for 1st round QB as there are many other factors to take into account. There doesn't look like too many terrible choices on that list and I certainly wouldn't grumble if we took Quinn, but I think he is headed to Detroit.
I was surprised last year with Leinart sitting there that we didn't take him. This offense needs an identity, belief and leadership from somewhere. If Quinn can be the person to supply it then so be it.
The guys busting for teams with weak scouting departments is not so reassuring.

 

[007]

Problem is Detroit will most surely take Quinn which will leave Johnson for us. He's not going to help this team at all. What a fucking mess.

Detroit will be better for it.

A nice crop of Wide receivers and Kevin Jones will make life a lot easier for Brady.

Kinda like Matt Leinart starting off his career with 3 top tier wide receivers a Pro bowl running back and a 6-7 rookie tight end.

 

[Crossbones]

But how is taking Calvin Johnson going to make the Raiders any better? I hate this idea.

 

[hawaiianboy]

Detroit will be better for it.

There's the rub... even if Al falls in love with BQ, it's hard to imagine the Lions will pass on him... I like Quinn, but I don't think he's as polished as Leinart was coming out...

Right now the HB draft board would look something like this:

1: Adrian Peterson
2: Brady Quinn
3: Marshawn Lynch
4: Alan Branch
5: Calvin Johnson

If there was a halfway decent free agent QB to pin some hope on, I'd probably have Quinn at 4 or 5...

QB jihads will break your heart man... I really thought drafting Roethlisberger while Gannon was still around would have been an intelligent thing to do... As it stands, we've managed to expose Andrew Walter to the collective brain matter of Kerry Collins and Giggles Brooks... If we invest the kind of money a #2 overall pick gets into Quinn, we damn well better bring in a QB guru either as QB coach or OC...

 

[Limee]

I think we should be looking to get a QB guru in even if we don't draft Quinn.

 

[Ghost To The Post]

If we do pick up Quinn or Jamarcus Russell (more & more likely with every Tennessee win.) I would like the Raiders to bring in Ken Anderson (Jax) or Chris Palmer (Dallas). HB's mancrush Zampese would be great as well.

The next Raider OC needs a strong personality to take this offense and give it an identity. Shell is probably going to remain the head coach, so it is imperitive that his influence is buffered from the players by a well respected OC.

Let Ryan run the defense and the new OC handle the offense. Special teams need improving, so Art can focus there and on matters of internal security.

 

[Madturk]

Any decent OC we bring in will command a lot more dough than what Shell is probably making. To top it off, Shell will have input on who he wants to bring in. Top flight OC's are making 1.5-2 mill a year. If there's a time to pay for an OC, it's this offseason.

It sucks that Gannon is such a good color guy. Wouldn't mind him coming in and coaching the qb's and developing into an OC eventually.

 

[Banter]

18 1st rounders in 7 years. So if Russell and Brohm declare the draft would have Quinn, Russell, Brohm, Smith and Stanton in it. Some of those guys will be there in the 2nd round cause 5 QBs in the 1st round doesn't happen. Peterson/Smith or Calvin/Stanton pairing works for me. 2008 is loaded with runners. So maybe we're better off in the long-run getting the WR/QB duo up and running and then augmenting them a year latter with the the runner.

 

[Crossbones]

Well I'd love to see us get Quinn and then assuming we're still bad which is likely we could get the RB from Arkansas (McFadden) next year!

If not we have to take the RB Peterson or Lynch this year. This is more likely unless Detroit losses a game they are no doubt going to take Quinn#1.

 

[NIPS]

Man I'd rather draft Troy Smith even with his Bostonian height than to take Quinn, And I'm opposed to even drafting a QB in rd 2

I'm not giving up on Walter.

My nuts your vice says Walter is having a great year in San Diego or Indianolpis, Seattle and a host of other teams

Give the kid a running back thats gonna make defenders account for him and an OL and at least an OC with half a brain and you'd see results

Lets be honest here, nobody respects our runing game or OL, thats why they blitz us 95 % of the time

Give Walter a game plan, find his strengths and work around "him" Quit trying to force him into a system that just sucks monkey balls

A RB that has mad speed outside will take away a LB, a TE with good speed and hands and a half decent OL with some plays that will confuse defensises and we'd move the ball downfield

Go get a couple OL FA's, trade Moss and Porter, trade down and lets load up on picks and keep Walter and Brooks for now

Maybe see about bringing in a vet QB that may hit the market

Until we fix this OL, running game and TE situation

Brady Quin aint doing dick, he's gonna cost high bucks, he migght hold out and the kids career will be over before it even began in the NFL

 

[Crossbones]

First Nips, I think it's a moot point about Quinn. Unless the sky falls Quinn will be a Lion.

Now the problem is Johnson. I like your plan better. Peterson or Lynch.

I'm just sayin' if Quinn is there we take him and get McFadden next year and we're golden.

Troy Smith from everything I have read isn't going to last until round two..no biggie IMO.

As for Walter I'm gonna disagree with 'ya there. Don't like the guy. He hasn't done a single thing or made a single play I remember. No matter how bad our system and OL is you'd think the kid could make one play in 5-6 games. That's what separates the good players from the bad -- play makers no matter the situation. He's a stiff in my book.

 

[007]

As for Walter I'm gonna disagree with 'ya there. Don't like the guy. He hasn't done a single thing or made a single play I remember. No matter how bad our system and OL is you'd think the kid could make one play in 5-6 games. That's what separates the good players from the bad -- play makers no matter the situation. He's a stiff in my book.

Agreed.

Alex Smith has made some plays this year and last that make you go: Huh, he got the ball in there?

Rivers has made some deep outs look like absolute perfection. He is almost always in sync with Gates and Parker...

Leinart...Well, just watch him audible at the line, or throw a quick slant right on the money to Fitz and Boldin.

Vince: Well...I was just wrong there. Tennessee is not a .500 team, and It's not just Pac-Man winning those games.

Even Losman might rival the top guys in the league, as far as the deep ball is concerned. Personally, I think he's the most accurate long passer in the game.

We don't have that at the QB spot. I think it's long overdue that we look at the draft for a young QB, instead of bringing in Damon Huard or Tim Rattay for one or two years.

Get some lineman via free agency and we could be in business. Draft a Mike Bush, Tyrone Moss, Tony Hunt or Kenny Irons in rounds two or three, and we could be rolling.

Plenty of second round and later round RB's are playing very well: Gore, Julius Jones, Tatum Bell, LaDell Betts, MJD, Marion Barber, Michael Turner, Willie Parker, Jerious Norwood.

Not that I wouldnt want Peterson, because I think he is most likely to be the Raiders pick, but Its not like we HAVE to go round one for RB or we don't find our future LT. Heck, Westbrook, Barber, Gore and Rudi J were'nt top five picks.

Plenty of ways to skin a cat, IMO.

 

[hawaiianboy]

Judging by the forums I peruse, I think a lot of people hold the fact that Quinn plays for the bastard Notre Dame Irish Catholics against him....


Talentwise, I think the clear cut best player in this draft will end up being Adrian Peterson but I can certainly see the arguments for Brady Quinn... Like Natty pointed out with Leinart last year, it appears that Quinn has that 'it' factor that teamates feed off and follow...


One thing I will say is that if this draft had been held after Adrian Peterson's freshman year, AP may have been right there with the alltime highest rated prospects... Not since Hershell Walker can I remember a freshman looking like a man among boys while playing in a major conference.... The shine has come off a bit because of a couple of freak injuries, but we're talking about a Bo/Elway/Hershell type of freak skill set IMO...


I gotta say, I've love it if we could somehow manage to draft AP, acquire a "Steve McNair" type vet while developing Kevin Kolb as a draft pick... people will dismiss Kolb as being a product of the system as they always seem to do when it comes to QB's from a run and shoot/spread type offense, but I love what I've seen from him...

 

[Madturk]

One thing I will say is that if this draft had been held after Adrian Peterson's freshman year, AP may have been right there with the alltime highest rated prospects... Not since Hershell Walker can I remember a freshman looking like a man among boys while playing in a major conference.... The shine has come off a bit because of a couple of freak injuries, but we're talking about a Bo/Elway/Hershell type of freak skill set IMO...

Why couldn't have Peterson come out before we signed LJ, it would have been a no-brainer? All Al has to do is look at the AFC West and see the balance of running power tipped so heavily in SD and KC's favor.

 

[BigTron]

Kevin Jones might not be ready for next season. His injury was really bad and the doctor seemed worried about his immediate future in the NFL. With that said if AP seperates himself as the "Reggie Bush" of this years draft. Will the Lions pass like the texans did and select Quinn. They should... but this IS the team that selected three 1st round Wrs in a row. 2 busts and Roy Williams. Hell i can draft top 10 three years in a row and get 1/3 picks right? If Quinn is there will we still take CJ. I think Al will want Joe Thomas, CJ or AP. I also dont think you put any young QB behind our line and expect anything.

 

[R4Life]

No QB in 07 draft for Raiders

Not until at least the second day.
I hate to bring it up, but Al likes Walter. He's going to be the starter next year. Remember the "highest qb on our draft board" comment from Shell?
Personally, I think it's good. We need more help at other postioins before we invest in someone that doesn't help immediately. Let Brooks back-up Walter for a reduced price tag and look for Walter to be given the reigns in 2007.

 

[007]

Judging by the forums I peruse, I think a lot of people hold the fact that Quinn plays for the bastard Notre Dame Irish Catholics against him....


Talentwise, I think the clear cut best player in this draft will end up being Adrian Peterson but I can certainly see the arguments for Brady Quinn... Like Natty pointed out with Leinart last year, it appears that Quinn has that 'it' factor that teamates feed off and follow...


One thing I will say is that if this draft had been held after Adrian Peterson's freshman year, AP may have been right there with the alltime highest rated prospects... Not since Hershell Walker can I remember a freshman looking like a man among boys while playing in a major conference.... The shine has come off a bit because of a couple of freak injuries, but we're talking about a Bo/Elway/Hershell type of freak skill set IMO...


I gotta say, I've love it if we could somehow manage to draft AP, acquire a "Steve McNair" type vet while developing Kevin Kolb as a draft pick... people will dismiss Kolb as being a product of the system as they always seem to do when it comes to QB's from a run and shoot/spread type offense, but I love what I've seen from him...

I heard a rumor that your boy Colt Brennan might be heading to the draft...

Maybe a second round flier on him? (I don't see him jumping Brohm/Quinn/Russell and he'll be around Troy Smith if he comes out)