Draft '06 - Who would you take? What would you do?

[Crossbones]

Well the draft is three weeks away. The top of the draft is very interesting at this point especially with New Orleans trading thier left tackle the other day and controilloing the ever imoiortqant second pick!

So, how do you see it right now? What would you do if you were Al Davis?

What is our biggest need and do we draft for need or take the BPA? Ah, the debate rages on.

Let's have it guys! TG and Angel, you too. Well Angel might not come into this joint.

 

[Chris_77]

If it were me calling the shots I'd try to put a package together and move up and get either Mario Williams or Matt Leinert. Since that won't happen I think Ngata makes the most since at our spot. Great D-Lineman can make an average LB'er core look good... but I don't think it works the other way around.

 

[Crossbones]

If it were me calling the shots I'd try to put a package together and move up and get either Mario Williams or Matt Leinert.

Personally I think Al will try to move up to #2. He's done it before and there are two players likely to be there that could be special...Leinart and Super Mario. The Leinart selection would be a head scratcher. Don't get me wrong I'd love to have him but it troubles me that we drafted Tuiasosopo on day one and Walter on day one. So from that standpoint it really doesn't make sense since I don't see Leniart as a John Elway type Super Star waiting to happen. He could be but it's a crap shoot.. Still I'd be happy with him if they are planning on starting him. Otherwise, Mario is our man at 2!

Since that won't happen I think Ngata makes the most since at our spot. Great D-Lineman can make an average LB'er core look good... but I don't think it works the other way around.

Frankly, at seven I'm not so sure Ngata is our guy. He looks to be a perfect acquisition for us (a need) but there have been a lot of reports of his taking plays off and some lack of motivation. This is a critical pick for the Raiders if they stay at seven. I'm starting to think Vernon Davis would be the guy there. His measurables are sick. His 40 time was unbelievable. He'd do wonders for our young QB's giving them a great target and Davis would be a handful for any linebacker or safety. It's kind of hard to think of the Raiders going offense again...but don't forget, no matter the reason -- ``we didn't score enough". Plus you know how competitive Al is within the division. With Kansas City having Gonzo and San Diego with Gates Al would like to have a "me too" guy at TE.

My personal gut feeling is that Al is going to move up and make a splash. The thing that bothers me about it is what we'll have to give up. I really don't want to give up day one picks. Would you trade Jerry Porter to New Orleans to switch positions? Would that be enough? Personally I'd do it. I'm kind of tired of Porter's "potential" but lack of consistency.

 

[Chris_77]

Originally Posted by CrossBones
Personally I think Al will try to move up to #2. He's done it before and there are two players likely to be there that could be special...Leinart and Super Mario. The Leinart selection would be a head scratcher. Don't get me wrong I'd love to have him but it troubles me that we drafted Tuiasosopo on day one and Walter on day one. So from that standpoint it really doesn't make sense since I don't see Leniart as a John Elway type Super Star waiting to happen. He could be but it's a crap shoot.. Still I'd be happy with him if they are planning on starting him. Otherwise, Mario is our man at 2!

Mario would be my first choice since I'm a sucker for a smashmouth defense but I'm also intrigued with the possibility of Leinert. He might not be the most physically gifted prospect ever but he's got swagger and the extra "X" factor that most winning QB's seem to posses. For all the hype about Walter, I'm just not sold. There's a reason he dropped to the third round and it wasn't just his injury. McGahee tore his knee to shreds and still managed to be taken in the first round.

Originally Posted by CrossBones
Frankly, at seven I'm not so sure Ngata is our guy. He looks to be a perfect acquisition for us (a need) but there have been a lot of reports of his taking plays off and some lack of motivation. This is a critical pick for the Raiders if they stay at seven. I'm starting to think Vernon Davis would be the guy there. His measurables are sick. His 40 time was unbelievable. He'd do wonders for our young QB's giving them a great target and Davis would be a handful for any linebacker or safety. It's kind of hard to think of the Raiders going offense again...but don't forget, no matter the reason -- ``we didn't score enough". Plus you know how competitive Al is within the division. With Kansas City having Gonzo and San Diego with Gates Al would like to have a "me too" guy at TE.

I've heard the same reports regarding Ngata's "motivation" issues but that doesn't seem to be the type of thing that bothers Al IMO. While I absolutely agree that Vernon Davis has caught Al's eye, I can't see him getting past SF.

Originally Posted by CrossBones
My personal gut feeling is that Al is going to move up and make a splash. The thing that bothers me about it is what we'll have to give up. I really don't want to give up day one picks. Would you trade Jerry Porter to New Orleans to switch positions? Would that be enough? Personally I'd do it. I'm kind of tired of Porter's "potential" but lack of consistency.

I hope you're right as long as we're moving up for a reason. Meaning... no giving up a 2nd or 3rd just to leapfrog SF and take Davis. It needs to be either Mario or Leinert to be worth the effort IMO. As for Porter... I'd put him on the first bus out of town. I've been sick of his act since his "injury" last preseason. We can get the same inconsistent production from Gabriel for a fraction of the cost. Morant needs to see some PT anyways.

 

[Rupert]

Lots of words for few predictions

I think there's a definite reason Antajj was shipped over to NFL Europe. He had the same kind of "takes plays off" "undisciplined" "supremely talented" buzz around him that Ngata has (and Chester did). So Hawthorne was shipped over to see if he would develop at all. If they like the reports (and what they see) of Hawthorne over there, they'll scratch Ngata off the wish list and will get depth at DT on day two.

Think whatever you want about Walter, but there's no way you sign a QB who hasn't lived up to expectations to what is essentially a 1-year contract if you don't have his expected successor already on the roster. The contract tendered to Brooks says Walter is the man (unless anyone thinks it's Tui). There's no historical evidence to suggest that Al Davis would bank on drafting a rookie and having him start the next season. So the acquisition of Brooks and his contract says that Al Davis thinks the future is already on the roster, or that he's already looking forward to next year's free agent QB's.

The roster is brimming with plenty of the same guy at WR with varying degrees of talent and only 1 route runner (who just happens to be coming off his second torn achilles in two years). For this reason people are talking about the Raiders trading one of these guys. Since Moss was a high-profile acquisition, he's not on the block. Porter would be the first guy on anyone's list after that, so he could be dangled as bait. Gabriel, while not as athletic or dynamic as Porter, could be roughly as productive opposite Moss if given the reps. Morant has more upside in my book than Gabriel, and deserves more PT. This log jam needs a little thinning. I'd trade Porter to jump up in the first round.

We could definitely use a future starter at guard, but we don't need to use the 1st round to get one. There's depth available and we can get one in the 2nd or 3rd.

TE is not a need position. Though it would be nice to upgrade the depth here.

FB is a need position, but I wouldn't think that a 1st day selection is necessary to get a decent one.

DL is not a need position, but an upgrade would definitely be welcomed. There's just enough depth, but it's right on the ragged edge of being a problem. I like the starters, and two of the guys on the bench, so I don't see an immediate problem. But Sapp is near the end and there is only Hawthorne behind Sands, and there's no guarantee he can handle the double-teams.

OLB is our greatest need. Clark and Morrison can handle the middle very well. Williams will be welcomed back, but can he stay healthy? Don't bank on it (even if you think he can). Riddle? Is he an OLB or a DE? Morrison is currently manning the Will position but there's no-one credible behind him. We don't NEED to use a 1st rounder on one. Morrison was a 3rd rounder last year. We can definitely find another starter on day one, or quality depth. Either way a 1st rounder is not necessary.

DB's. I think we're set at corner. Maybe a young guy who can possibly start in a year or two would be nice, but I'd rather wait and draft a starter in the 1st or 2nd in a couple years. Strong safety is another need. Not a great one. Possibly a day 2 guy could fit in nicely.

Okay, so what the hell would I do?
1st round - I wouldn't chase after Lienart, Walter is the future (mistakenly or not). I wouldn't go after Ngata either, I'd leave it to Hawthorne (mistakenly or not). So that brings it down to OG or OLB. Hawk is out there just a few picks ahead of us most likely, but as I said, we can get a starter in the 2nd or 3rd. OG is traditionally a 2nd or 3rd round position, and with no-one good enough to be taken 7th it's out of the question. So it''s either Hawk or a player who'd be a greater impact, and the only one I can think of is Williams. I'd trade up for Williams or Hawk. But the only way to guarantee my choice is to get up to 2nd. And at 2nd, I'd only draft Williams. Of course the Raiders might try to wait it out and see who goes 2nd before making a push to acquire a better draft position. If Williams goes 2nd, I'd try to trade up for Hawk. If I was stuck in place, I'd have to take a long look at someone like Michael Huff.

2nd round would most likely be OG or OLB and the 3rd would be the other of the two.

Day 2 I'd go after a depth on the OL, try to find a blocking FB, and find a run stuffing DT to take on the double-teams. If I didn't pick up a safety on day 1 I'd look for someone with measureables and bring him into camp and see what he could learn.

 

[Crossbones]

Good stuff guys (gst8 and Rupert)...it's definitely gonna be fun on draft day. It just looks to me (knowing how Al seems to think) that he will want to take what he wants instead of taking what the draft gives him...i.e take what's left over at seven!

And right, the number two hole is the key...there you have your choice. I agree with both you guys about Leinart...he's intriguing but Al doesn't like to develop QB's. But the prospect of Leniart (left handed, Heisman winner, USC and his winning record) might push Al to finally do it. I think Rupert is correct though. Brook's contract doesn't give us much evidence that Al is sold on this cat as the starting QB much past this year. That screams Walter is the man. We'll see.

And yeah gst8 Verson Daivs would be just what the doctor ordered for Alex Smith and the 49ers.

 

[Chris_77]

Originally Posted by Rupert
I think there's a definite reason Antajj was shipped over to NFL Europe. He had the same kind of "takes plays off" "undisciplined" "supremely talented" buzz around him that Ngata has (and Chester did). So Hawthorne was shipped over to see if he would develop at all. If they like the reports (and what they see) of Hawthorne over there, they'll scratch Ngata off the wish list and will get depth at DT on day two.

Good points. I was under the impression that Ngata was strictly a NT while Hawthorne was more of a pass rusher ala' Warren Sapp. If that’s the case then wouldn't Ngata have value regardless of Hawthorne’s development? Personally I like the idea of upgrading the middle and keeping Kelley at DE (provided we don't get Mario).

Originally Posted by Rupert
Think whatever you want about Walter, but there's no way you sign a QB who hasn't lived up to expectations to what is essentially a 1-year contract if you don't have his expected successor already on the roster. The contract tendered to Brooks says Walter is the man (unless anyone thinks it's Tui). There's no historical evidence to suggest that Al Davis would bank on drafting a rookie and having him start the next season. So the acquisition of Brooks and his contract says that Al Davis thinks the future is already on the roster, or that he's already looking forward to next year's free agent QB's.

You're absolutely correct. I was just speaking on what I would like to see happen. You know... arm chair GM.

Originally Posted by Rupert
DL is not a need position, but an upgrade would definitely be welcomed. There's just enough depth, but it's right on the ragged edge of being a problem. I like the starters, and two of the guys on the bench, so I don't see an immediate problem. But Sapp is near the end and there is only Hawthorne behind Sands, and there's no guarantee he can handle the double-teams.

OLB is our greatest need. Clark and Morrison can handle the middle very well. Williams will be welcomed back, but can he stay healthy? Don't bank on it (even if you think he can). Riddle? Is he an OLB or a DE? Morrison is currently manning the Will position but there's no-one credible behind him. We don't NEED to use a 1st rounder on one. Morrison was a 3rd rounder last year. We can definitely find another starter on day one, or quality depth. Either way a 1st rounder is not necessary.

This is one area that I agree with Al's philosophy. I would rather invest in the line and pick my LB's up later in the draft or FA. Great LB's look pretty average without someone up front to occupy the blockers.

For my first round...

If we move up then I want Mario or Leinert. If we get all the way to number two then Williams is the man. If we can't get that high I think the only other player/position worth that type of risk would be Leinert. I just can't justify trading up to get a LB unless we could do it without giving up any first day picks.

If we stay put then I think it's going to be Ngata or Vernon Davis. Actually... I just can't shake the idea that Al is going to try and move ahead of SF for Vernon.

Later rounds...

OG, Safety, and LB in whatever order that provides us with the best players. OG is such a need IMO that I'd consider trying to trade back into the first round or using two picks to make sure we "hit". Oh... and throw in a BLOCKING TE for good measure.

 

[Rupert]

Good points. I was under the impression that Ngata was strictly a NT while Hawthorne was more of a pass rusher ala' Warren Sapp. If that’s the case then wouldn't Ngata have value regardless of Hawthorne’s development? Personally I like the idea of upgrading the middle and keeping Kelley at DE (provided we don't get Mario).

The thing about Hawthorne is he has the size to take on the double-team, but you're right, up to now he's been more of a penetrator, even against the double-team. I like Kelly at DE too. The guy just constantly gets pressure, but put him up against a less mobile OG, closer to the QB, and I think he'll get more sacks and won't sacrifice anything against the run. The problem is, I wouldn't move him inside unless we get Williams, or when Brayton on the field as a rotation.

You're absolutely correct (about QB - edit). I was just speaking on what I would like to see happen. You know... arm chair GM.

Yeah, I just don't think getting Lienart would really improve the club, but I can't change your feeling about Walter.

This is one area (DL - edit) that I agree with Al's philosophy. I would rather invest in the line and pick my LB's up later in the draft or FA. Great LB's look pretty average without someone up front to occupy the blockers.

No argument whatsoever.

For my first round...

If we move up then I want Mario or Leinert. If we get all the way to number two then Williams is the man. If we can't get that high I think the only other player/position worth that type of risk would be Leinert. I just can't justify trading up to get a LB unless we could do it without giving up any first day picks.

If we stay put then I think it's going to be Ngata or Vernon Davis. Actually... I just can't shake the idea that Al is going to try and move ahead of SF for Vernon.

Later rounds...

OG, Safety, and LB in whatever order that provides us with the best players. OG is such a need IMO that I'd consider trying to trade back into the first round or using two picks to make sure we "hit". Oh... and throw in a BLOCKING TE for good measure.

You wouldn't give a thought to Michael Huff at #7? Former CB, 6' 204lbs, 4.34 40, hits like a truck, incredibly athletic.

Yeah, I know, 1st round safety. Still. Nice player to bring in. Also fits the Al Davis mold. 7th might be a little high. And what about a blocking FB on day 2? Foschi and Flemister were good (not great but good) blockers.

 

[Rob]

Rup,I've looked all over hell and back and I can't find Hawthorne on any teams roster in NFLE. How about alittle help?

 

[Rupert]

Rob, he's on the Galaxy. Don't look for him on the roster though, he was a late addition. Look for him on the stat sheet. He's got 3 tackles off the bench playing as an NT.

 

[Chris_77]

Originally Posted by Rupert
You wouldn't give a thought to Michael Huff at #7? Former CB, 6' 204lbs, 4.34 40, hits like a truck, incredibly athletic.

Yeah, I know, 1st round safety. Still. Nice player to bring in. Also fits the Al Davis mold. 7th might be a little high. And what about a blocking FB on day 2? Foschi and Flemister were good (not great but good) blockers.

I wouldn't be opposed to Huff at #7. Frankly, I've always felt that the Safety position has been undervalued in this organization. For that reason I can't see Al taking Huff unless he planned to use him at CB. If that's the case then forget about it.

I agree that a blocking FB would be a nice addition. Actually I would have liked to see Al make a play for Mack Strong. Regardless... while definately a need I can't put FB in the same boat as Guard and LB. A late round pick or undrafted FA would be perfect.

 

[Rupert]

Yeah, like I said elsewhere, a player doesn't have to be a great athlete or the smartest football player to be a good safety. But to be very good you need the smarts (football instincts, discipline, whatever), you can't be very good without them. Once he's got the smarts the guy needs to add great athleticism to be great. Huff doesn't have all the smarts, but he's close and has great athleticism.

Al Davis has always taken the approach that a player can develop enough smarts, but athleticism won't develop much. At least, that's how it appears. Techniques can be refined, and when to use them can be taught, but he wants the raw athletic tools in place. To some degree that's right, but not universally so.

True, FB is not as important as guard or OLB, but I'd rate it about up there with safety. We can get by with what we've got, but I'd like better.

 

[Crow]

Ngata and Bunkley both have their warts, but due to a lack of quality talent at DT (Sapp is winding down. Kelly is good, but not great. Terd is a rotational guy. Hawthorne is essentially worthless.), I think we have to consider one or the other.

I'd love to see Hawk come onboard, but I don't even give it a thought. If Al takes a LB that high, I'll shit my britches...as the old folks used to say.

Vernon Davis, if he gets by the 9ers, just screams "Al Davis" to me. Al's been lusting after a decent receiving TE for years and has rolled craps every time. Throw in VD's record breaking 40 time and insane verticle leap, and I'd say that he's almost a lock...if he's available.

In Rds 2 and 3, I think guard and OLB will likely be the picks. Safety would be great, and if we took Daniel Bullocks there, I wouldn't be upset. SS is as big a hole as any on this team, and we simply can't continue to plug-and-play castoffs and "athletes" with no football intelligence.

That said, Thomas Howard looks like an Al Davis pick. A LB with questionable instincts and football smarts, but geat speed. Nap Harris, pt2. I'd look for Al to consider him in the 2nd round.

That said, if Timmy B was right, and Al gives Art the same kind of input on draft day that he gave Gruden, then I think we may end up with a guy like Charles Spencer, Deuce Lutui, or Davin Joseph in Rd2. We desperately need a RG, and I have to believe that we intend to draft on in the Rd 2-4 range.

While I like the Lance Johnstone signing, since it will finally give us someone other than Burgess who can apply pressure off the edge, it really concerns me about our draft strategy. This is a strong year for pass rushers, even if many only project as Robert Mathis-type situational players. So I was really hoping to see us draft one on the 1st day. Now, with 4 serviceable DEs on the roster (Burgess & Hamilton on the left, Brayton and Johnstone on the right), the possibility of adding an extra, and much needed, pass rush specialist seems bleak. With Hamilton and Johnstone aging, Burgess' durability still a concern (one year does not a durable player make), and Brayton basically being a rookie again leave DE still very much on my list of problem areas. Guys like Elvis Dumervil and Daryll Tapp would be great if we could get one of them in Rd3.


If it were up to me, and Mario, Hawk, and Davis were all gone, I'd try to use whatever QB was left as bait to get someone to trade up, gather at least a 2nd round pick in the move (Trade value chart be damned. Teams overpay for QBs every year.), and start plugging in some young talent. Ernie Sims, Donte Whitner, Daniel Bullocks, Manny Lawson, Mathias Kiwanuka, Tamba Hali, Charles Spencer, Deuce Lutui, John Alston...lots and lots of talent to be had. When you're a team with more holes than settled positions, you need all the added talent you can get.

Al Davis has always taken the approach that a player can develop enough smarts, but athleticism won't develop much.

And this is exactly why he needs to let someone else draft for him.

 

[Crossbones]

Nice post, Crow..

Rep!!!!

I too don't see Al taking a linebacker this high even one with Hawk's rep. Remember he passed on Ray Lewis to move UP to take Rickey Dudley. Al has been burned with first round LB's and safeties and I think Al has had enough of that.

moving up to two is interesting but I am wondering why Al would do that unless he is absolutely sold on Mario. Al doesn't like to take QB's high in the draft (he never has) and if he passed on Roethlisberger and didn't make a move for Eli Manning I'm not sure he’d do it for Leinart. Remember, the only QB Al really wanted was John Elway and he couldn't pull that off after offering the entire franchise for the man. Leinart, Young or Culter is/are no John Elway.

I think you’re right on about what the draft strategy SHOULD be but we're talkin’ the Raiders and Al Davis. No guarantees. I also agree that Vernon Davis will probably be the pick if he's there 7 and the Raiders don't trade up. Otherwise they may go with Nagata. Just a feeling because Al also loves DT and OT. I wish we could get a crack at Ferguson but I doubt there is a scenario where he falls to seven...

Only two weeks to go.

 

[Crow]

Al doesn't like to take QB's high in the draft (he never has) and if he passed on Roethlisberger and didn't make a move for Eli Manning I'm not sure he’d do it for Leinart. Remember, the only QB Al really wanted was John Elway and he couldn't pull that off after offering the entire franchise for the man. Leinart, Young or Culter is/are no John Elway.

Amazing how many people lose sight of 40+ years of history.