Compensatory Draft Picks For 2007...

[Angry Pope]

I think we should get at least a third round pick for Woodson....

Pats, Ravens look to win comp pick sweepstakes… The window of opportunity for NFL teams to sign unrestricted veteran free agents closed over the weekend. And while league accountants still have to figure out all the final specifics, it appears that both New England and Baltimore are likely to get the maximum number of compensatory picks for the 2007 draft. Indeed, both the Patriots and Ravens lost a total of 6 more unrestricted free agents than they were able to sign themselves. Baltimore, for example, had 9 veteran free agents sign with other teams this winter including RB Chester Taylor, DT Ma’ake Kemoeatu, DE Anthony Weaver and FS Will Demps, while signing three. Meanwhile, the Patriots lost 8 veteran free agents, including WRs David Givens and Andre Davis, as well as star PK Adam Vinateiri. San Diego, Indianapolis and Oakland are also almost certainly going to each receive a healthy package of comp picks next spring. San Diego lost 4 more free agents than they signed, while both Indianapolis and Oakland were a minus 3. As well, all three teams also lost high priced free agents which will impact their ultimate comp pick award. San Diego, for example, lost QB Drew Brees who signed with New Orleans, while star Colts RB Edge James signed with Arizona and Oakland CB Charles Woodson inked with Green Bay. Other teams which should be in line to get something in terms of comp picks this year include Atlanta, Kansas City, Minnesota, and possibly Pittsburgh. On the other hand, teams which will definitely NOT be getting comp picks this year include Buffalo, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Washington and the Jets. For the record, here is the full list of free agent signings by team. The allotment of compensatory draft picks is determined by a complicated formula which factors in the net loss of veteran free agents for each team, as well as the value of the contracts signed. Comp picks are usually announced about a month before the actual draft.

 

[Angry Pope]

Here is a formula for calculating Compensatory Draft Picks with an example....

Compensatory Pick Calculations

Although nobody knows the actual formula the NFL uses to compute which teams receive which compensatory draft picks, after studying several drafts, the basics are explained below. While this method isn’t 100% exact, it is close.

The Bills current situation is used as an example.

Step 1:

Determine which free agents qualify as compensatory since those players with modest salaries will not be included in the formula. The cap number of last year’s highest paid player not to qualify must be multiplied by the rate of inflation (which matches the rate of increase in the salary cap) which is approximately 5.5%.

$715,000 x 5.5% = $754,325

These numbers are somewhat estimated although they still serve to clearly delineate which players qualify:

Additions:

Bennie Anderson $5,100,000/3 years...$1,700,000/year
Kelly Holcomb $6,600,000/4 years...$1,650,000/year
Mike Gandy $2,590,000/2 years...$1,300,000/year

Subtractions:

Jonas Jennings $36,000,000/7 years...$5,140,000/year
Pat Williams $13,000,000/3 years...4,330,000/year

Step 2:

Determine the difference between the salaries of the additions and the subtractions.

Total Salary of Additions = $1,700,000 + $1,650,000 + $1,300,000 = $4,650,000
Total Salary of Subtractions = $5,140,000 + $4,330,000 = $9,470,000

$9,470,000 - $4,650,000 = $4,820,000

Step 3:

Determine with which compensation your number correlates. As in step one, this number can be calculated from last year’s number. This is the lowest number accepted in the range. Below is the number for the fourth round.

$4,400,000 x 5.5% = $4,642,000

If the difference between the salaries lost/gained (from step 2: $4,820,000) is greater than the bottom of the fourth round range (from step 3: $4,642,000), as occurs above, the Bills may qualify for a fourth round compensatory pick. I say ‘may’ because there are minor tweaks worked into the formula accounting for games played and postseason honors.

In this case, while Pat Williams started every game, Jonas Jennings was injured for much of the year. For the Bills, all three free agents accrued significant playing time. It is possible that Buffalo could be bumped back to a fifth round slot depending on the league’s adjustment, but it is my estimate that Buffalo will possess the following selections:

#8
#40
#67
#72
#104

And, without calculating any other team’s compensatory selections, approximately pick #130. Six picks in the first four rounds.

 

[Crossbones]

A third for C-Dub? That would be awesome.