Chargers GM reveals portion of draft plans

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Chargers GM reveals portion of draft plans

April 15, 2006

The tea leaves are treacherous this time of year. Connecting the dots can be as daunting as Rubik's cube.

NFL draft strategy is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma beyond Mel Kiper, particularly where A.J. Smith is concerned. The Chargers' general manager does not play poker by brandishing his hole card, but by being as tight-lipped as a jar of Grandma's peach preserves.

“We are not going to be taking a place-kicker,” Smith acknowledged yesterday. “We're not going to take a (punter) and we're not going to take a running back.

“(But) any other position to go after in the draft is wide open.”

Now that certainly narrows it down, doesn't it?

Two weeks before pro football's annual hypefest reconvenes at Radio City Music Hall, the Chargers are in desperate need of a blind-side tackle to protect Philip Rivers, urgent need of an upgrade at cornerback, and are widely projected to settle for a wide receiver in the first round.

The Chargers own the No. 19 selection, which is likely too late to land either of the elite tackles, Virginia's D'Brickashaw Ferguson and USC's Winston Justice, or Texas cornerback Michael Huff. Smith might try to trade up, but that would require additional draft picks and reduce the opportunity to address other needs.

This is one of the reasons the Chargers are prepared to part with starting linebacker Donnie Edwards – in order to stockpile draft picks for maximum maneuverability. Yet while Edwards has made more stops than a policeman on prom night, he is 33 years old and entering the last year of a contract that will pay him $3.55 million. He is not going to fetch a fantastic price at this stage of his career.

Smith would probably count himself fortunate, in fact, if he could swap Edwards for a third-round draft choice. Even in that event, however, the Chargers might still be short on big-time bait.

If market precedent is any indication, Smith might have to spend as many as three high picks to move up from No. 19 to, say, No. 10. When the New York Jets moved up nine spots in 2003, it cost them two No. 1s and a No. 4. Two years ago, the Cleveland Browns paid the Detroit Lions a second-round choice for the right to move just one place in the first round, from seventh to sixth.

Trading up can be thrilling because it signals that your team thinks it's on the brink of something big. But the price is typically extortion and the decision is often dubious.

“They play the 'You are desperate' game,” said draft analyst Jerry Jones, author of The Drug Store List. “If the Chargers want to trade up to the eight-to-10 range, I think you're going to have to give away a very high pick from the next year or two and a No. 3 along with it. If you want to get up in the first five picks, you'd have to give up next year's No. 1 (in addition to this year's No. 1).”

For a team on the rise, it's reasonable to devalue future draft picks on the theory that the better you play, the worse you pick. Smith's history, however, has been to hoard draft choices rather than to package them in search of a big score.

Three times in the last five drafts, the Chargers have traded their top selection for multiple choices. Some of this had to do with a temporary need for numbers; some with the specific intractability of Eli Manning; but the pattern also reflects Smith's perception that it's usually a seller's market.

Both ends of the bargain involve substantial risk. The team that trades up often overpays. The team that trades down can wind up with Sammy Davis when it might have had Troy Polamalu or Larry Johnson.

“If you move up, you're going to pay a price,” Smith said. “I wouldn't be against giving up a package for a certain individual who you think is an incredible player, a difference-maker. But the people who go up to do something like that probably think, 'We're a player away from a world championship.' I don't know if we're there yet.”

Smith, ever cryptic, would not rule out paying a premium for a left tackle such as Ferguson, who is generally regarded to be the surest thing in the draft. But it was USC's Justice who visited the Chargers' complex on Thursday. Since league rules allow teams to bring in no more than 30 players for predraft probing, Justice's visit might be read as an indication of intent.

Or, just as likely, it could mean nothing.

“If they want the tackle, and Ferguson is out of reach, Justice would be the obvious target,” Jones said. “I've seen him rated all the way from No. 8 all the way down to 23 or 24, and I'm only talking about people whose judgment I trust. He's No. 19 on my list. Isn't that odd?”

Jones is confident the Chargers can stand pat and get a solid tackle in Auburn's Marcus McNeill or Miami's Eric Winston. The question A.J. Smith must answer is whether McNeill or Winston is sufficient to protect the Chargers' investment in the unproven Rivers.

“It's a glaring thing in itself, even if Drew Brees is here,” Smith said of the left tackle spot. “The fact that he's not here and it's a young (quarterback) puts a spotlight on it.”

This is not to say the Chargers will be drafting a tackle. Unlike kickers, however, it has not been ruled out.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060415/news_1s15sullivan.html
 
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