Awards...

[Angry Pope]

Take it for what it is worth but this was a poll done in various categories...

2005 Football Outsiders Awards, Part I
2/21/2006

comments by Aaron Schatz

Once again, I would like to thank everyone who voted on the awards this season. Thanks to our increased exposure, this year’s awards had two-and-a-half times as many votes as last year’s awards — even after we tossed out the ballots that were clearly duplicates caused by the technical problem with apostrophes. (Sorry about that, by the way.)


Who is your choice as Offensive MVP for 2005? (Last year’s winner: Peyton Manning)


34.1% Steve Smith
13.3% Tom Brady
13.0% Tiki Barber
12.4% Shaun Alexander
8.1% Walter Jones
7.0% Peyton Manning
6.2% Larry Johnson
5.9% Carson Palmer

I had a feeling that the Football Outsiders readers would disagree with the official vote that had Shaun Alexander as MVP, but I don’t think I expected Steve Smith to get nearly three times as many votes as anyone else. I guess this is what happens when you finish first in every single wide receiver statistic (DPAR, DVOA, yards, TDs) on a team with no other offensive weapons.


Who is your choice as Defensive MVP for 2005? (Last year’s winner: Ed Reed)


34.5% Troy Polamalu
25.7% Brian Urlacher
11.7% Lofa Tatupu
6.1% Al Wilson
4.8% Dwight Freeney
4.7% Ronde Barber
4.2% Antonio Pierce
3.5% Julius Pepers
2.8% Shawne Merriman
1.8% Zach Thomas

I’ll admit that it was tough to whittle down this list of nominees, and I deliberately did not list more than one player from any team so that there wouldn’t be any vote-splitting. For the second straight year, a safety wins this award. So much for the idea that safety is not as important as other defensive positions.


Who is your choice as NFL Rookie of the Year for 2005? (Last year’s winner: Ben Roethlisberger)


50.7% Lofa Tatupu
20.7% Shawne Merriman
8.4% Cadillac Williams
8.2% Heath Miller
3.6% Odell Thurman
8.4% (seven other candidates)

I listed 12 different candidates for this award because we kept thinking of rookies who had very good seasons in 2005 … and then none of those guys got more than a handful of votes, so I ended up listing them all together at the end. Merriman won the official Rookie of the Year award because he made big plays in big games on national television, but Tatupu was steadier throughout the year and played a larger role in improving his team’s defense compared to 2004.


Who was the best offensive lineman of 2005? (open question, two votes per ballot, top 12 listed) (Last year’s winner: Alan Faneca)


42.4% Walter Jones (LT, SEA)
10.9% Steve Hutchinson (LG, SEA)
7.2% Alan Faneca (LG, PIT)
6.2% Willie Roaf (LT, KC)
4.1% Tom Nalen (C, DEN)
3.1% Levi Jones (LT, CIN)
2.7% Jeff Saturday (C, IND)
2.5% Will Shields (RG, KC)
1.5% Brian Waters (LG, KC)
1.2% Matt Lepsis (LT, DEN)
1.1% Willie Anderson (RT, CIN)
1.1% Mike Wahle (LG, CAR)

I guess when we include an offensive lineman on the list of MVP candidates, that guy is going to win the balloting for best offensive lineman, but I don’t think this result would have been different even if Jones had not been listed as an MVP candidate as well. Jones was fourth last year, but this year’s number two lineman — also from the Seahawks — didn’t make last year’s top dozen. Mike Wahle drops from second into a tie for 11th. Other players who drop in this year’s balloting include three linemen who were injured much of the year: Hank Fraley, Kevin Mawae, and Matt Light.

These open-ballot questions always lead to some very strange responses, of course. Two people voted for "Chad Hutchinson." We also got votes for two other quarterbacks and some guy named "Himes Ward."



Who is your choice for NFL Coach of the Year in 2005? (Last year’s winner: Bill Belichick)


42.6% Lovie Smith
17.0% Marvin Lewis
13.9% Tony Dungy
8.5% Bill Belichick
6.7% Joe Gibbs
5.2% Mike Holmgren
4.5% Mike Shanahan
1.6% Tom Coughlin

Hey, it’s our first year without Bill Belichick winning this award! Striking a blow for minority hiring, the top three coaches are all African-American. You just wait until Art Shell guides the Raiders to a surprise division title next year. (OK, I’m kidding. Shell is good but not that good.)

I should note that this award was specifically supposed to be for regular season performance, not postseason performance. This is why I did not include Bill Cowher among the nominees. Remember, the Steelers just barely slipped into the playoffs before they went on their amazing postseason run. Going from 15-1 to 11-5 is not the stuff of (regular season) Coach of the Year. The playoffs, well, that’s a totally different story, but the awards balloting was over long before the Super Bowl.

cont'd...

 

[Angry Pope]

cont'd...

Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin’ Wood Award for 2005 (player who most hurt his team)? (Last year’s winner: Ricky Williams)


35.0% Jamal Lewis
13.8% Fred Smoot and his boat rentals
10.7% Kerry Collins
9.6% Pac-Man Jones
9.4% Alex Smith (SF)
9.1% Duane Starks
6.7% Charles Rogers
5.7% "False start, Luke Petitgout, 5 yards"

Yes, I screwed up and left Terrell Owens off of this list. He probably would have won hands down. I cannot believe that Baltimore is thinking about franchising Jamal Lewis. Hello, Owings Mills Police? I think your town may have been invaded by zombies from the Planet of Bad Football Decisions.



Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin’ Game Film Award for the worst coach of 2005? (Last year’s winner: Mike Martz)


36.5% Norv Turner
22.0% Dom Capers
16.1% Dennis Green
13.5% Brian Billick
10.3% Mike Mularkey
1.6% Joe Vitt

This is the second time in three years that Oakland’s head coach has won this award. I’ve been pushing Art Shell as a head coaching candidate since FO came online three years ago. Come on, Art, prove me right, and coach those boys up. Dennis Green, meanwhile, finishes third for the second straight year. Next year, after Arizona goes 6-10, he will finish third for the third straight year.



Who is your choice for the Art Rooney Jr. Award for Executive(s) of the Year? (New award)


31.8% Randy Mueller/Nick Saban, MIA
31.8% Tim Ruskell, SEA
16.8% Bill Polian, IND
11.2% Jerry Angelo, CHI
8.5% Ernie Accorsi, NYG
0.0% Pat Bowlan/Mike Shanahan, DEN

I’m not sure which is more odd, that there was an exact tie for the winner of this award or that not a single ballot voted for the two men who somehow turned a bunch of Cleveland castoffs into an actual NFL-quality defensive line. I wasn’t sure who to list when a head coach has full power over a team, which is why you have two names each for Denver and Miami — Saban and Shanahan aren’t really executives, per se. Mueller and Saban of course turned the Dolphins back around to 9-7. Ruskell rebuilt the Seattle front seven with budget free agent signings and two rookie linebackers. I voted for Accorsi, actually — I don’t remember another time when an executive went into the off-season with three huge, glaring holes in his lineup and signed the top free agent at each position: WR Plaxico Burress, MLB Antonio Pierce, and RT Kareem MacKenzie.

For those wondering, Art Rooney Jr. was in charge of the Steelers when they had that string in the mid-70’s where they drafted multiple Hall of Famers year after year.



The most overrated offensive player in the NFL is: (open question, top 12 listed) (Last year’s winner: Michael Vick)


20.0% Michael Vick
9.9% Shaun Alexander
9.4% Brett Favre
9.0% Peyton Manning
6.5% Eli Manning
4.4% Randy Moss
4.1% Jerome Bettis
3.9% Tom Brady
3.9% Terrell Owens
2.6% Jeremy Shockey
2.0% Jamal Lewis
1.7% DeShaun Foster

Yep, we may just have to name this the Ron Mexico Award until Vick learns how to be a fundamentally sound NFL quarterback. A lot of FO readers also believe that the Seattle linemen should get more credit and that we are sick of hearing about Brett Favre. One person who voted for Tom Brady pointed out that he "also kills puppies." There were four votes for different variations on "any Denver running back." Maybe the most interesting player to receive a single vote: Matt Schaub.



The most overrated defensive player in the NFL is: (open question, top 12 listed) (Last year’s winner: Ray Lewis)


29.4% Ray Lewis
11.9% Champ Bailey
9.6% Dwight Freeney
6.6% Brian Urlacher
5.0% Tedy Bruschi
2.5% Warren Sapp
3.5% Troy Polamalu
3.2% Roy Williams
2.5% John Lynch
2.0% LaVar Arrington
1.6% Ty Law
1.6% Joey Porter

Lewis and Bailey finished one-two in this category last year as well. Lewis, Freeney, Urlacher, and Sapp have finished in the top six for this category all three years. One voter was sure to note that he was voting specifically for the "post-stroke" Tedy Bruschi. One voter referred to Dwight "One-Move" Freeney. Yes, but that one move is really, really good. There was a vote for Alex Smith, which is odd because a) it did not specify which Alex Smith, and b) both Alex Smiths play on offense.

cont'd...

 

[Angry Pope]

cont'd...

The most underrated offensive player in the NFL is: (open question, top 12 listed) (Last year’s winner: Deion Branch)


6.9% Matt Hasselbeck
4.5% Hines Ward
4.3% Tiki Barber
4.0% Ben Roethlisberger
3.6% Deion Branch
3.0% Larry Johnson
3.0% Thomas Jones
2.4% Warrick Dunn
2.2% Anquan Boldin
2.2% Walter Jones
1.8% Mack Strong
1.6% Levi Jones

This is always an interesting category with a lot of candidates. We received votes for 125 players, not counting the people who threw their votes away with comments like "all fullbacks." If you think fullbacks are so underrated, why can’t you name one? Matt Hasselbeck deserves to be considered one of the game’s best quarterbacks at this point. Hines Ward has been one of the league’s top receivers for years and when he goes into the Hall of Fame, we’ll all sit around and talk about how strange it was that he never got mentioned in the same sentence as Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison. I love Walter Jones, but I wouldn’t exactly call him "underrated" — conventional wisdom basically agrees that he’s the top lineman in the game at this point.



The most underrated defensive player in the NFL is: (open question, top 12 listed) (Last year’s winner: Tedy Bruschi)


6.9% Casey Hampton (DT, PIT)
2.9% Mike Vrabel (LB, NE)
2.7% Al Wilson (LB, DEN)
2.7% Al Harris (CB, GB)
2.5% Ronde Barber (CB, TB)
2.5% Mike Peterson (LB, JAC)
2.5% Aaron Smith (DE, PIT)
2.5% Adrian Wilson (S, ARI)
2.3% Richard Seymour (DE, NE)
2.1% Antonio Pierce (CB, NYG)
2.1% Lofa Tatupu (LB, SEA)
2.1% Jamal Williams (DT, SD)

Nosetackles, oh ye of few accolades and even fewer statistics. This voting was even more spread out than the voting for more underrated offensive player, with 144 different players getting votes. Do you notice that there are no Chicago Bears in the top dozen? That’s because nearly every player who took the field for Chicago this year got a few votes, with no one Bears defender getting more than a handful. Alex Brown was highest among the Bears, but Nathan Vasher, Lance Briggs, Ian Scott, and Tommie Harris all received at least one percent of the votes. Other interesting names with a handful of votes: Minnesota DT Pat Williams, Cleveland CB Leigh Bodden, and LB Keith "I’m the entire Tennessee Defense" Bulluck.



The most overrated special teams player in the NFL is: (open question, top 10 listed) (New award)


35.6% Mike Vanderjagt
20.5% Dante Hall
7.7% Adam Vinatieri
5.9% Antwaan Randle El
3.7% Larry Izzo
3.2% Todd Sauerbrun
1.9% Jason Elam
1.9% Sebastian Janikowski
1.3% Chris Gardocki
1.3% Neil Rackers

Yes, the first winner of this award was going to be pretty obvious, and the first player to finish second is only slightly less obvious. People were promoting Dante Hall as an MVP candidate a couple years ago. What the hell were they thinking?



The most underrated special teams player in the NFL is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year’s winner: David Akers)


4.2% Antwaan Randle El (PR, PIT)
3.9% Terrence McGee (KR, BUF)
3.0% Sean Morey (coverage, PIT)
2.7% Chris Gardocki (punter, PIT)
2.4% Josh Miller (punter, NE)
2.1% Adrian Peterson (coverage, CHI)
1.8% Jay Feely (K, NYG)
1.8% Chidi Iwuoma (coverage, PIT)
1.8% Robert Mathis (coverage, IND)
1.8% Neil Rackers (K, ARI)

I can’t tell if Pittsburgh just has really underrated special teams or only Pittsburgh fans voted in this category. We’ve got four Steelers here, plus one recent ex-Steeler (Miller) and Andre Frazier just missed the top ten. Also just below the top ten, votes for three players who were part of a major influx of punting talent in 2005: Donnie Jones of Miami, Michael Koenen of Atlanta, and Ben Graham of the New York Jets.

cont'd...

 

[Angry Pope]

cont'd...

2005’s biggest disappointment in fantasy football was: (Last year’s winner: Clinton Portis)


50.5% Daunte Culpepper
17.8% Kevin Jones
10.8% Randy Moss
7.9% Jamal Lewis
5.2% Willis McGahee
3.8% Michael Clayton
1.7% Nate Burleson
2.3% (three other candidates)

I deliberately tried to stay away from players who were disappointments solely because they missed time due to injuries or hissyfits — thus, no Terrell Owens — but Culpepper of course tanked a ton of fantasy teams and then didn’t even stick around to earn some of his value back. I feel like I could pick all 12 teams to make the playoffs next year and people will still bug me about Kevin Jones. (Jones’ comparables since 1978 don’t hold much promise for a comeback, either.) Randy Moss wasn’t exactly Randy Moss anymore and it turns out Nate Burleson isn’t Randy Moss either. The question of what happened to Michael Clayton is, to me, the biggest mystery of 2005. Maybe that’s what I should do in Indianapolis this weekend: ask everyone I meet — coach, scout, or media — what they think happened to Michael Clayton. At least his comparables are more optimistic than Jones’ (except this guy).



Player most likely to breakout in 2006 (open question, top 12 listed): (Last year’s winner: Kellen Winslow — apparently, people thought the question was "most likely to break a leg in 2005.")


6.4% Ronnie Brown
5.2% Kevin Jones
4.1% Larry Johnson
3.3% Reggie Bush
3.1% Braylon Edwards
3.1% Charlie Frye
3.1% David Carr
3.1% Rex Grossman
2.3% Eli Manning
2.3% Heath Miller
2.3% Roy Williams (DET)
2.3% Ben Watson

Of course, that top guy looks like an even better breakout prospect after the events of the past few days — the only thing higher than Ricky Williams right now are the fantasy football expectations for Ronnie Brown. I am blown away that so many people think our bete noire, Jones, is actually going to get his act together in 2006. Expectations are high in Cleveland. Ben Watson finishes 12th for the second straight year — of course, last year he had was coming off a rookie year that consisted of two receptions and a catastrophic injury.



By the way, what counts as "breakout" for Larry Johnson, breaking the all-time rushing record?

Interesting names lower down in the voting: TMQ favorite Ernest Wilford, Carolina receiver Drew Carter, and Carolina running back Eric Shelton (who missed this year with a foot injury). Almost no votes for defensive players this year. Last year, whoever voted for Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs and New England nose tackle Vince Wilfork can pat themselves on the back.

Next year, I’m going to have to specify that this question is for players already in the league, not incoming rookies like Bush. (LenDale White almost made the list also.)



Player most likely to significantly decline in 2006 (open question, top 12 listed): (Last year’s winner: Curtis Martin)


16.1% Shaun Alexander
15.9% Tiki Barber
10.8% Edgerrin James
4.7% Steve Smith
2.8% Trent Green
2.8% Larry Johnson
2.8% Larry Johnson
2.4% Mark Brunell
2.4% Peyton Manning
2.2% Drew Bledsoe
2.2% Priest Holmes
2.0% Santana Moss

Yep, this one is pretty obvious. You don’t set the NFL record for touchdowns two straight years, and when you set a career high in yardage at age 30, you don’t improve at age 31. If you don’t believe me on that second one, ask Corey Dillon and Curtis Martin. That’s not just a warning for Barber, but also Warrick Dunn. I don’t get the votes for Larry Johnson at all unless people think they’re going to work him so hard that he breaks down before the season even ends.

These next two go together. See if you can figure out what doesn’t make sense.



Which of the following teams is most likely next year’s surprise Super Bowl contender? (Last year’s choice: Cincinnati)


24.3% Cleveland
14.0% St. Louis
13.1% Arizona
9.9% Baltimore
8.8% Detroit
7.2% Buffalo
6.8% New York Jets
6.0% Tennessee
4.7% Green Bay
2.8% Houston
1.3% San Francisco
0.9% New Orleans

Which playoff team is most likely to decline in 2006? (Last year’s choice: Green Bay)


27.9% Chicago
11.8% Indianapolis
10.6% New York Giants
10.6% Washington
8.4% Jacksonville
5.4% New England
5.2% Tampa Bay
5.1% Carolina
4.9% Denver
4.4% Seattle
3.3% Cincinnati
2.3% Pittsburgh

Why doesn’t this make sense? Because if Cleveland is the breakout team of 2006, Cincinnati and/or Pittsburgh has to decline. They can’t all go 11-5, right? In other news, apparently people think Lovie Smith was the coach of the year, but not the coach of every year.

 

[Angel]

Hey Angry, did you make up this list on your own? (you have wayyyyyyy too much time on your hands) j/k....very interesting lists!!

 

[Crossbones]

Man the Raiders get no love.

 

[Angel]

Man the Raiders get no love.

And your point would be..........?