Angry Pope
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Scramble for the Ball: AFC Over-Unders Part II
8/11/2006
Ian: Welcome to Part II of Scramble for the Ball’s annual look at NFL over/under projections. For those of you that missed the last column, we talked about the lines for the lower-rated half of the AFC. This time, it’s on to the higher-rated teams of the AFC — and highly rated, they are. Four teams are projected to win 10 or more games, while the other four are projected to win nine or more (in addition to the Bengals, who were covered in the last Scramble). The NFC, by contrast, has only two teams projected to win 10 or more games, and six projected to win nine or more. Bill, is football going the way of baseball, with the AFC playing the role of the American League?
Bill: Maybe we could get that D.J. Dozier comeback I’ve been pining for… Nah. It just means there’s more value in the NL — er — NFC. That’s for you to exploit, little gamblers. The NFC, however, must wait till next week — let’s finish up the AFC, starting in Florida:
Jacksonville Jaguars (o/u 9)
Bill: Most people are wondering whether the Jaguars will be able to replace the production of the retired Jimmy Smith. While the quality of their selections can be questioned, the Jaguars have addressed the issue by drafting three receivers in the first round over the last three years. Although Marcedes Lewis can be expected to struggle (as you will read in this year’s Pro Football Prospectus 2006), Ernest Wilford (9th in DVOA last year) and an improving Matt Jones can be expected to pick up the slack. Reggie Williams, on the other hand… well, at least he’s not Charles Rogers. The real key, though, is having Donovan Darius back in the lineup. The Colts’ regression to the mean will be the Jaguars gain. Over.
Ian: I’m a huge Byron Leftwich fan. By now you’ve all probably seen the footage where his offensive linemen carried him up the field to help him lead his team, since he couldn’t walk. Not only is he the kind of leader that is always there for his team, he’s also among the football equivalent of Big Papi: Always performing at his best when the game is on the line.
Throw in the clutch factor with a division that includes four virtual “bye” weeks against the Titans and Texans (not to mention a home game against the Jets!), and I think the Jaguars are much more likely to win ten games than they are to lose eight. I’ll agree with you and go Over.
Miami Dolphins (o/u 9)
Bill: Miami’s season was real weird last year — they won their last six games of the year, which would make you think they outperformed their Pythagorean numbers a little bit, but they pretty much matched up perfectly. (Pythagorean projection explained here.) After adding Daunte Culpepper, and with Ronnie Brown getting the rock full-time in the backfield, you figure their offense will improve. On the other hand, this front seven is old. When you combine that with the Taylor-Thomas divorce (no, that is not an attempt at a Home Improvement reference), the defense can be expected to decline. I think that the offense’s improvement will be a little more incremental than the defense’s decline, and when you combine that with an easy schedule, the Dolphins’ playoff hopes look good. Over.
Ian: I definitely agree with you on this one; this is one of the better Over opportunities out there. Nick Saban has been extremely impressive in what he’s accomplished in his short tenure as Miami head coach. He took a 3-7 Dolphins team into late November and December and won their last six games — an amazing feat. Shedding that “Dolphins in December” image will go a long way to having this team believe they’re on their way to the playoffs.
And as you point out, they do have what looks to be a relatively easy schedule. Getting home games against Green Bay and Minnesota is a boon. Traveling to Chicago can be tough, but traveling to Detroit isn’t exactly intimidating. Heck, they have the hometown fans that rooted for the visiting team last season. The Week 1 matchup in Pittsburgh is a big one. If they can win there, which I think they will, an over bet on Miami will be like cash (which is just as good as money!).
San Diego Chargers (o/u 9)
Bill: Oh, Chargers, how I love thee. Keep in mind that this team had nearly 11 DVOA Estimated Wins last year, and nearly 11 Pythagorean wins as well. There’s a crop of aging defensive players being supplanted by a group of youngsters with serious promise. If you read the book this year, you’ll see how much the college quarterback projection system loves Philip Rivers. When you factor in that the Chargers won’t be facing the league’s hardest schedule this year, they’re pretty much a mortal lock for ten wins. Over.
Ian: This is the NFL! There’s no such thing as a “mortal lock for ten wins.” Especially when you’re (essentially) starting a rookie quarterback. The Chargers do have lots of offensive talent led by Gates and Tomlinson, and you have to love what we’ve seen out of Shawne Merriman so far. So, hopefully for them, Rivers can ease his way into the flow of the NFL, letting his teammates do most of the work early on as he gets up to speed.
The good news is the schedule. The Chargers open with a game at Oakland, then a home game against Tennessee, then a bye week. That should give Philip plenty of time to get his feet wet while the Bolts jump out to a 2-0 record. From there on out things do get tougher, but games against the NFC West should provide another three wins, they should be able to go 3-3 against division foes, and then they need just two wins in four games against the AFC North and a game at Buffalo. I realize that as the season goes on, adjustments will cause dramatic changes in the strength of schedule perceptions, but I based on what I see I have to go Over here.
Bill: Mortal. Lock. Remember. Marty is coaching. Now, if you asked me if they were going to win a playoff game…
Kansas City Chiefs (o/u 9.5)
Bill: Now, on the other hand, there are the Chiefs. I’m not sure if Willie Roaf’s retirement knocked this line down any, but it probably should have. I have confidence that Larry Johnson is real great and will gain 1,500 yards. It’s just the other 52 guys I’m worried about. This is an old team. Real old. Essentially, I’m saying the bottom’s about to drop out — especially when you consider that they’ll be facing the third hardest schedule in football. Easy Under .
Ian: Yep. Strangely, though they have arguably the best running back in football — and top fantasy pick everywhere, even by Reggie Bush — the outlook for this Kansas City team is not good. Tony Gonzalez, Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker are not exactly the most intimidating receiving trio in football. In fact, they’re among the worst. Kennison may be the next Rod Smith/Tim Brown type, having productive seasons year after year even though everyone keeps expecting him to fall off the football map, but Tony G’s best years are behind him, and Samie Parker is, well, Samie Parker.
Losing Willie Roaf is indeed a huge blow to this team’s offensive efficiency, while the defense isn’t one to be feared. Will they have a solid season? Yes. Any team with a strong running game and a terrific fan base is going to be competitive. But are they a playoff team? I just don’t see it. I’m taking the Under.
Denver Broncos (o/u 10)
Bill: We’re getting up to the serious win totals here now. The most important thing for me when it comes to the 2006 Denver Broncos is that they’ll be facing, according to DVOA, the hardest schedule in pro football. Last year, a very good Chargers team couldn’t overcome that task on their way to a disappointing season. That being said, I think there’s some reason to think the Broncos will, in fact, be able to overcome that. First, I think the Chiefs are about to collapse, and the Raiders aren’t anything to write home about, either. If that’s the case, the Broncos’ schedule difficulty decreases some. Unlike the Chiefs, this isn’t a particularly old team, which makes me think there is some room for improvement upon last year. I’m not going to lie — I’m a little worried that Mike Shanahan’s geniusosity has gone haywire and he is trying to prove his infallibility to fantasy football fans by naming an undrafted rookie free agent as his starting running back, but he gets the benefit of the doubt at this point. A somewhat iffy Over.
Ian: Here’s the number of regular season wins for the Broncos over the last four seasons, beginning with 2002: nine, ten, ten, thirteen. Clearly the Broncos have been getting it done, thanks in part to the best home field advantage in all of football. But do they have what it takes to win eleven games this season? I’m not so sure.
Yes, Shanahan’s pulling another one of his motivational tricks to get Tatum Bell fired up, and it seems to be working. Rumor also has it that newly-acquired Javon Walker has been tearing it up in camp. And, thankfully, Denver realized that they shouldn’t be handing the ball off to Ron Dayne more than a couple of times a game. Eleven wins is not gonna happen though.
cont'd...
8/11/2006
Ian: Welcome to Part II of Scramble for the Ball’s annual look at NFL over/under projections. For those of you that missed the last column, we talked about the lines for the lower-rated half of the AFC. This time, it’s on to the higher-rated teams of the AFC — and highly rated, they are. Four teams are projected to win 10 or more games, while the other four are projected to win nine or more (in addition to the Bengals, who were covered in the last Scramble). The NFC, by contrast, has only two teams projected to win 10 or more games, and six projected to win nine or more. Bill, is football going the way of baseball, with the AFC playing the role of the American League?
Bill: Maybe we could get that D.J. Dozier comeback I’ve been pining for… Nah. It just means there’s more value in the NL — er — NFC. That’s for you to exploit, little gamblers. The NFC, however, must wait till next week — let’s finish up the AFC, starting in Florida:
Jacksonville Jaguars (o/u 9)
Bill: Most people are wondering whether the Jaguars will be able to replace the production of the retired Jimmy Smith. While the quality of their selections can be questioned, the Jaguars have addressed the issue by drafting three receivers in the first round over the last three years. Although Marcedes Lewis can be expected to struggle (as you will read in this year’s Pro Football Prospectus 2006), Ernest Wilford (9th in DVOA last year) and an improving Matt Jones can be expected to pick up the slack. Reggie Williams, on the other hand… well, at least he’s not Charles Rogers. The real key, though, is having Donovan Darius back in the lineup. The Colts’ regression to the mean will be the Jaguars gain. Over.
Ian: I’m a huge Byron Leftwich fan. By now you’ve all probably seen the footage where his offensive linemen carried him up the field to help him lead his team, since he couldn’t walk. Not only is he the kind of leader that is always there for his team, he’s also among the football equivalent of Big Papi: Always performing at his best when the game is on the line.
Throw in the clutch factor with a division that includes four virtual “bye” weeks against the Titans and Texans (not to mention a home game against the Jets!), and I think the Jaguars are much more likely to win ten games than they are to lose eight. I’ll agree with you and go Over.
Miami Dolphins (o/u 9)
Bill: Miami’s season was real weird last year — they won their last six games of the year, which would make you think they outperformed their Pythagorean numbers a little bit, but they pretty much matched up perfectly. (Pythagorean projection explained here.) After adding Daunte Culpepper, and with Ronnie Brown getting the rock full-time in the backfield, you figure their offense will improve. On the other hand, this front seven is old. When you combine that with the Taylor-Thomas divorce (no, that is not an attempt at a Home Improvement reference), the defense can be expected to decline. I think that the offense’s improvement will be a little more incremental than the defense’s decline, and when you combine that with an easy schedule, the Dolphins’ playoff hopes look good. Over.
Ian: I definitely agree with you on this one; this is one of the better Over opportunities out there. Nick Saban has been extremely impressive in what he’s accomplished in his short tenure as Miami head coach. He took a 3-7 Dolphins team into late November and December and won their last six games — an amazing feat. Shedding that “Dolphins in December” image will go a long way to having this team believe they’re on their way to the playoffs.
And as you point out, they do have what looks to be a relatively easy schedule. Getting home games against Green Bay and Minnesota is a boon. Traveling to Chicago can be tough, but traveling to Detroit isn’t exactly intimidating. Heck, they have the hometown fans that rooted for the visiting team last season. The Week 1 matchup in Pittsburgh is a big one. If they can win there, which I think they will, an over bet on Miami will be like cash (which is just as good as money!).
San Diego Chargers (o/u 9)
Bill: Oh, Chargers, how I love thee. Keep in mind that this team had nearly 11 DVOA Estimated Wins last year, and nearly 11 Pythagorean wins as well. There’s a crop of aging defensive players being supplanted by a group of youngsters with serious promise. If you read the book this year, you’ll see how much the college quarterback projection system loves Philip Rivers. When you factor in that the Chargers won’t be facing the league’s hardest schedule this year, they’re pretty much a mortal lock for ten wins. Over.
Ian: This is the NFL! There’s no such thing as a “mortal lock for ten wins.” Especially when you’re (essentially) starting a rookie quarterback. The Chargers do have lots of offensive talent led by Gates and Tomlinson, and you have to love what we’ve seen out of Shawne Merriman so far. So, hopefully for them, Rivers can ease his way into the flow of the NFL, letting his teammates do most of the work early on as he gets up to speed.
The good news is the schedule. The Chargers open with a game at Oakland, then a home game against Tennessee, then a bye week. That should give Philip plenty of time to get his feet wet while the Bolts jump out to a 2-0 record. From there on out things do get tougher, but games against the NFC West should provide another three wins, they should be able to go 3-3 against division foes, and then they need just two wins in four games against the AFC North and a game at Buffalo. I realize that as the season goes on, adjustments will cause dramatic changes in the strength of schedule perceptions, but I based on what I see I have to go Over here.
Bill: Mortal. Lock. Remember. Marty is coaching. Now, if you asked me if they were going to win a playoff game…
Kansas City Chiefs (o/u 9.5)
Bill: Now, on the other hand, there are the Chiefs. I’m not sure if Willie Roaf’s retirement knocked this line down any, but it probably should have. I have confidence that Larry Johnson is real great and will gain 1,500 yards. It’s just the other 52 guys I’m worried about. This is an old team. Real old. Essentially, I’m saying the bottom’s about to drop out — especially when you consider that they’ll be facing the third hardest schedule in football. Easy Under .
Ian: Yep. Strangely, though they have arguably the best running back in football — and top fantasy pick everywhere, even by Reggie Bush — the outlook for this Kansas City team is not good. Tony Gonzalez, Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker are not exactly the most intimidating receiving trio in football. In fact, they’re among the worst. Kennison may be the next Rod Smith/Tim Brown type, having productive seasons year after year even though everyone keeps expecting him to fall off the football map, but Tony G’s best years are behind him, and Samie Parker is, well, Samie Parker.
Losing Willie Roaf is indeed a huge blow to this team’s offensive efficiency, while the defense isn’t one to be feared. Will they have a solid season? Yes. Any team with a strong running game and a terrific fan base is going to be competitive. But are they a playoff team? I just don’t see it. I’m taking the Under.
Denver Broncos (o/u 10)
Bill: We’re getting up to the serious win totals here now. The most important thing for me when it comes to the 2006 Denver Broncos is that they’ll be facing, according to DVOA, the hardest schedule in pro football. Last year, a very good Chargers team couldn’t overcome that task on their way to a disappointing season. That being said, I think there’s some reason to think the Broncos will, in fact, be able to overcome that. First, I think the Chiefs are about to collapse, and the Raiders aren’t anything to write home about, either. If that’s the case, the Broncos’ schedule difficulty decreases some. Unlike the Chiefs, this isn’t a particularly old team, which makes me think there is some room for improvement upon last year. I’m not going to lie — I’m a little worried that Mike Shanahan’s geniusosity has gone haywire and he is trying to prove his infallibility to fantasy football fans by naming an undrafted rookie free agent as his starting running back, but he gets the benefit of the doubt at this point. A somewhat iffy Over.
Ian: Here’s the number of regular season wins for the Broncos over the last four seasons, beginning with 2002: nine, ten, ten, thirteen. Clearly the Broncos have been getting it done, thanks in part to the best home field advantage in all of football. But do they have what it takes to win eleven games this season? I’m not so sure.
Yes, Shanahan’s pulling another one of his motivational tricks to get Tatum Bell fired up, and it seems to be working. Rumor also has it that newly-acquired Javon Walker has been tearing it up in camp. And, thankfully, Denver realized that they shouldn’t be handing the ball off to Ron Dayne more than a couple of times a game. Eleven wins is not gonna happen though.
cont'd...