2026 draft grades and notes

SpyGuy’s draft ranks 3rd most athletic (Donks and Chefs ranks the least athletic) and in the T10 in average value of first seven picks (Donks and Dolts rank in B5).

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IDK who Zuhn met with at the combine or Texas A&M’s pro day, which all 32 NFL teams attended, but he reportedly had top 30 visits with Hou and the Raiders. And he came off the board in the midst of an OL run: 3.86 (Barber), 3.88 (Pregnon), 3.91 (Zuhn), 3.93 (Trost), 3.96 (Dunker), 3.97 (Tiernan), 4.102 (Bowry).

Hou is interesting. Coming into the draft, it had 8 picks—a 1st, two 2nds, a 3rd, two 4ths, a 6th and a 7th. Having made the playoffs with one of the NFL’s best D, but an OL that could not protect Stroud, Hou had specific needs and paid premiums to obtain targeted prospects.

For example, Hou traded up in the 1st from 1.28 to 1.26 to secure OL Rutledge, the 2nd OG off the board. @alteredst8 pegged Rutledge as a late riser who could sneak into the 1st. Hou liked (or needed) Rutledge more than OT Lomu, who fell to 1.28.

Hou also paid a premium to fill a need in the 2nd to jump NYG for McDonald. While it already had a top D, McDonald gives Hou the top NT in Hou’s already solid 3-4 D.

That left Hou with two 4th round picks—4.106 and 4.117. Packaged together, that put Hou in range to easily trade back into the 3rd in the 90’s to fill their next biggest need.

SpyGuy drafted OL Zuhn at 3.91. Hou’s next pick, at 4.108, was OL Nwaiwu. While Zuhn was considered a reach (Arif 4.110), Nwaiwu was a bigger perceived reach (Arif 6.191), but was taken ahead of 6 other OL drafted in the 4th (8 OL drafted in the 4th in total).

The draft nick community continues to undervalue OL. They go earlier than their pre-draft grades or rankings forecast.
 
Baldy on the AFC West draft classes.

 
Sleet said:
The anatomy of the draft—listing BPA alternatives per Arif.

1.1: QB Mendoza

No brainer

2.36: WR (Boston), NT (McDonald), CB (Hood), S (Stukes)

Although all relatively deep positions and ones of needs, it does not follow that Stukes was StyGuy’s BPA. Raiders traded the rights to McDonald in a low risk (2 spot), high reward (+56 point value) move—leveraging Hou’s desire to jump over NYG for McDonald, who traded Sexy Dexy. NYG drafted Hood and Raiders passed over Boston again for Stukes, which suggests a higher grade on Stukes over Boston, DT C. Miller or CB Ponds, or the best fit for SpyGuy’s draft strategy of doubling down at safety.

3.67: CB (McCoy, Abney, Scott), WR (C. Bell, Brazzell, Branch, A. Williams, Fields), DT (Orange), Edge (Crawford)

With SpyGuy looking to trade Wilson and to invest in/develop a pass rusher over a NT (and willing to move on from Snowden), SpyGuy’s pick/plan reveals itself in hindsight, especially with few remaining Edge pieces and depth at both WR and CB still on the board.

3.91: CB (McCoy, Abney, Scott, Muhammed), WR (C. Bell), OL (Dunker), OL (Tiernan), OL (Zuhn)

Loved upgrading from 4.117 to 3.91 and keeping 4.102 near the top of Day 3. IDK why C. Bell fell. Zuhn, an OL for SpyGuy, seems like a standard call over CB, especially with McCoy falling. It appears that SpyGuy’s real choice was among OL, including Dunker and Tiernan. Dennison chose Zuhn.

4.101: CB McCoy

No brainer (for a ‘27 7th).

4.122: LB Louis, RB Washington

Loved that SpyGuy traded up for RB2 Washington, who fell to the 4th. WR S. Bell or B. Lance were the other skill position players worth trading up for, but RB2 was a bigger need and there was more depth at WR. Weird how Louis fell—he was the 7th LB taken in R4 (6 taken after Washington).

5.150: CB (Abney), S (Wheatley), DT (Durant, Capehart), S (D. Johnson)

For me, the head scratcher of SpyGuy’s draft. Doubling down at CB (Abney) or S (Wheatley), who fell into the 5th, seemed like the call, especially with Masses and Payne still on the board in addition to Johnson. Durant and Capehart were the BA DT3T. D. Johnson was plainly a targeted fit.

5.175: OT JC Davis, DT3T Durant, WR Cameron, CB Masses

Pretty clear that SpyGuy was not in the market for a Day 3 OT or DT3T, passing on Durant twice. While I was a WR Cameron fan, SpyGuy passed him over at 6.185 as well. Masses fit and was the last CB taken until after our R6 pick. In contrast, 4 WR were drafted after Masses and before Benson at 6.195.

6.185 OT Crownover, WR Cameron, WR Benson

SpyGuy again passed over a Day 3 OT, one who fell to the 6th, and parleyed 6.185 into two players at positions of need—WR and NT.

7.229 NT Cleveland

R7 flyer
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Thank you for your detailed posts.
 
wilbo71 said:
Thank you for your detailed posts.
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We Dont Do That Umbrella Academy GIF by NETFLIX
 
DonkeyKilla said:
I have to admit I scroll past most of it but @Sleet brings something unique to the board for sure.
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Good thing about being passionate about something, it is its own motivation. Breaking down the draft, to me, is fun.

GM’s seemingly make poor decisions. The question, to me, is why? What was the reason behind a player and timing of a pick?

It’s easy to say SpyGuy ranked Stukes and ‘9ers ranked Stribling, both R2 picks, above other S and WR—two deep position groups in the draft. It’s also easier to knock the ‘9ers as Stribling was mocked far lower than Stukes.

‘9ers traded down twice to sit at the top of Day 2. But instead of trading down a 3rd time, when you got to believe they received offers for 2.33, Rat Jr. felt he could not risk Stribling—Arif’s 3.99 pick—even with a lot of highly rated WR with a variety of skill sets still on the board. Rat Jr. needed his guy—very Gruden like but he’s not as bad at it.

SpyGuy similarly traded down and still got his guy, Stukes, perhaps early, although unlike with Stribling, there were reports that Stukes could sneak into the 1st. Also unlike the ‘9ers, it looks like SpyGuy was intent on taking advantage of position depth and doubling down at S—trading back into the 5th for one.

Perhaps OG Zuhn and RB Black, both perceived R3 reaches (albeit Zuhn a smaller one than Black) are better examples of the difference in process between Rat Jr. and SpyGuy. Zuhn was taken in the middle of a position run. In fact, more projected OG (5) were taken within 10 picks in the 3rd than RB in the 3rd and 4th rounds combined (3). While both SpyGuy and Rat Jr. apparently got their guy, SpyGuy got Zuhn where GM’s pegged OG—it looks like Rat Jr. got Black a round or two early, even if you liked him more than consensus.
 
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Desert Rat said:
He's the off season fluffer but if it goes south during the season he disappears.
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Ah, you missed me last year.

20+ years of losing and I still have, wut, more than 100k posts than you? Perhaps you should post more. lol Or maybe there were things going on last year more than just losing. :rolleyes:
 
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SBNation said:
Pete was terrible. But he did usher in the next iteration of Raiders football. For this, we may own him a debt of gratitude.
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Which forced pairing was worse:
  • Pete onto SpyGuy?
  • Chip onto Pete?
  • Peter’s OLC son onto Chip?
  • Pete’s D onto Graham?
What a clusterfuck from jump. The true anatomy of a tank job. Picking favorites and not playing players and dispensing with some who played elsewhere was bonus.
 
Sleet said:
Which forced pairing was worse:
  • Pete onto SpyGuy?
  • Chip onto Pete?
  • Peter’s OLC son onto Chip?
  • Pete’s D onto Graham?
What a clusterfuck from jump. The true anatomy of a tank job. Picking favorites and not playing players and dispensing with some who played elsewhere was bonus.
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Of that list, I was most upset about Pete Jr. being thrust into the o-line position. That bearded fuck. Zero experience, players couldn't stand him, the whole line was in disarray. That shit is unforgivable.
 
Any time there's a new staff/gm there will be growing pains. We unfortunately hit the worst of all of the above. We tried to square peg a defensive scheme on an existing dc. We gave a traditionally tyrannical hc some leeway but gave him an oc that didnt fit and had his own ego issues. We let that hc hire his sons one of whom did not develop his group well. There was significant disconnect between front office acquisitions and coaching. So we ended up with silos of front office, hc, dc, oc. All to the detriment of the on field product.

We don't have that this year that we know of. Gm and ownership selected this hc. This hc hired his own staff top to bottom. Hc/gm worked together for acquisitions.

So rather than an amalgamation of staff - it's hopefully cohesive.
 
Sleet said:
24 years. We’ve paid enough.
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Outside of the early 2000s run, and maybe a few respectable seasons in ‘90, ‘91, and ‘93, this franchise has been anywhere from painfully average to flat out dogshit since winning the Super Bowl in 1983.

That’s basically 40 years of dysfunction packed into a 45 year stretch. Three cities, endless “rebuilds,” rotating coaches and quarterbacks, and 1 fucking playoff win since the Bush administration. At this point, Raiders fandom is less about sports allegiance and more a long-term test of psychological endurance.

But perhaps there is finally hope on the horizon :beerbang:
 
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