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Ranking the quarterbacks, team by team
Aaron Schatz / FootballOutsiders.com
Posted: 18 hours ago
Nothing stirs up debate like a good set of rankings, and ranking all 32 NFL teams unit-by-unit is an annual FOXSports.com tradition. This year, the debate comes with a little twist, as our rankings are grounded not in the conventional wisdom but in the advanced statistics of Football Outsiders.
Any discussion of an NFL team usually starts with the quarterback, and our rankings are no exception. Rating quarterbacks as a unit means taking into account more than just the first-stringer on each team. However, quarterback is very different from other positions, because the bench players only see action if the starter is injured. So a lack of depth at quarterback is less of an issue than it is at other positions. (We're looking at you, Patriots.)
Since we'll be rating each unit as it exists in 2006, we're taking into account performance over the last couple of years, but we're also considering age and injuries. All those teams whose starting quarterbacks are still iffy for the start of the 2006 season get penalized, as do teams whose quarterbacks are currently healthy but have a bad injury record. It's better for your backup to be a first-round rookie with potential than a mediocre journeyman, but Tennessee doesn't get to rank higher because Vince Young might be the best quarterback in football five years from now. Our judgment of inexperienced quarterbacks is guided in part by our new rookie quarterback projection system, the subject of a long essay in our upcoming book Pro Football Prospectus 2006. You can read an introduction to the system here.
You'll see a lot of stats you recognize here, and one you may not: DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. DPAR takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent, rewarding players for strong performance on third down and in the red zone and giving them less credit for meaningless gains like a six-yard scramble on third-and-12. For those interested, you can find all the 2005 DPAR numbers for quarterbacks on this page.
Without further ado, here's a list of the NFL's quarterback units from best to worst.
1. Indianapolis
If you have been reading Football Outsiders over the past couple years, you know that there is no topic in football that we despise more than the never-ending, always irrational debate over who is the best quarterback in the NFL, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. But since we're rating units here rather than players, we get to avoid that argument. If we assume that Brady and Manning are equivalent, then Indianapolis must rank as the top quarterback unit in the league thanks to Jim Sorgi.
Wait a minute ... Jim Sorgi? Sixth-round afterthought out of Wisconsin Jim Sorgi? He's the guy who shows up when the Colts have already clinched their playoff spot, and nobody even knows if his name is pronounced with a soft "g" or a hard "g." What gives?
Sorgi's numbers in limited playing time over the past two years are excellent: he's completed 66 percent of his passes with 10.3 yards per completion, five touchdowns, and just one interception. The typical response would be to discount Sorgi's numbers, because he's taking advantage of the powerful offensive weapons that surround him in the Indianapolis offense. Which is true, if by "powerful offensive weapon" you mean "fifth-string wideout Aaron Moorehead." Sorgi's numbers are far better than any of the backups who have played in similar situations for the league's other powerful offenses, including Seneca Wallace, Matt Cassel, Charlie Batch, and even Jon Kitna.
2. New England
Tom Brady has already secured his spot in the Hall of Fame, but if he's injured, the Patriots are in serious trouble. Matt Cassel hasn't started a game since high school, and until the Patriots sign a veteran of some sort, their third-string quarterback is undrafted rookie Corey Bramlett.
3. Seattle
Last year, the quarterback hierarchy in the NFL seemed clear. On top, you had Brady and Manning, with Carson Palmer close behind. The second tier featured Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and Matt Hasselbeck. Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper were also worthy of consideration, if we assume that neither was fully responsible for his 2005 struggles.
Going into 2006, there's something obvious that separates Hasselbeck from every other quarterback in the NFL's second tier: he's the only one who has not had a significant injury in the past 12 months. That's enough to put Seattle ahead of the rest of the NFL behind the Colts and Patriots in our rankings. Behind Hasselbeck, there are depth problems: 2005 third-rounder David Greene has not been impressive in practice, and Seneca Wallace was more impressive in one postseason snap as a receiver than he was in his entire Week 17 cameo as a quarterback while Hasselbeck rested for the playoffs.
4. Pittsburgh
This is where it starts to get tricky because of all the injured quarterbacks. If you believe the media reports, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Culpepper, and Brees are all ahead of schedule. As Ron Borges of the Boston Globe pointed out, a year ago Chad Pennington was allegedly ahead of schedule, and that didn't turn out so hot.
Nonetheless, Roethlisberger is in better shape than Palmer, Brees, or Culpepper. Each one could miss the start of the season, and each one could have a setback that delays his return. But any quarterback would prefer to rehab his face and his diet rather than his knee or his shoulder. Once he can play, Roethlisberger will return to full strength quickly, and he's one of the best quarterbacks in the game whether you judge by rings or by stats. Big Ben is the only quarterback since 1978 with two seasons in the top 10 for net yards per pass attempt, and of course they happen to be the only two seasons he's played. If the injured quarterbacks all miss the start of the season, Charlie Batch has a better track record than Joey Harrington or Anthony Wright, and Omar Jacobs is a promising third-string prospect, although he really needed another year of college seasoning.
5. Denver
While he struggled in the AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh, Jake Plummer's huge year was not a fluke. Over the past three seasons, Plummer has ranked eighth, 11th, and sixth in Football Outsiders' advanced DPAR ratings. Obviously, a big difference between Plummer in Arizona and Plummer in Denver is the talent that surrounds him, but it isn't like Denver is the only team at the top of these rankings with a strong offensive line and a good running game. Denver gets moved up a couple spots because they happen to have a highly-regarded first-round pick learning behind Plummer, although anyone who thinks Jay Cutler should start ahead of Plummer in 2006 is delusional. Third-stringer Bradlee Van Pelt is not Alex Van Pelt.
6. Cincinnati
If Carson Palmer had not injured his knee, Cincinnati would rank third. But despite the rosy reports from the Queen City, it's hard to believe that Palmer can recover from a torn ACL in just nine months and be in the starting lineup, at full strength, ready to take on Kansas City on September 10. Anthony Wright is not a good quarterback, and Doug Johnson is even worse. Assuming that Palmer can be back to last year's level by halfway through this season, this seems like the right place to rank the Bengals.
7. Kansas City
Like Ken Anderson 30 years ago, or Jake Plummer today, Trent Green is often discredited by NFL fans who believe his outstanding performance is due to his offensive system or the talent surrounding him rather than his own abilities. But over the past four seasons, these are Green's ranks in our advanced DPAR stats: sixth, second, fifth, fourth. Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson and Willie Roaf are great players, but some of that has to be Green's doing. He's also an absurdly good scrambler who rarely runs with the ball without getting a first down. That being said, Green is on the downside of his career. If he gets injured, the Chiefs will have to play 2006 third-round pick Brodie Croyle before he is ready.
8. Philadelphia
For years, it was hard to tell if Donovan McNabb's numbers were unimpressive because he was overrated, or because he just needed better receivers. If you liked that argument, get ready to hear it again this year. The good news for the Eagles is that McNabb's sports hernia doesn't have long-term effects; unlike a torn rotator cuff or ACL, the player is basically healthy once the surgery is done. Jeff Garcia is okay as a backup, but at this point in his career he's just another replacement-level veteran. Koy Detmer likes to hold things.
Continued next post