Ed Oliver vs Rashan Gary

Discussion in 'Raiders War Room' started by Crow, Jan 23, 2019.

  1. Crow

    Crow Alright, then. Let it be fear.

    Messages:
    52,758
    Likes Received:
    41,368
    I'm thinking these guys may be far more similar as prospects than I previously realized.


    Oliver
    • Undersized DT​
    • Superior athlete​
    • Best work comes against the run​
    • Disappointing passrush production & year to year development/improvement​
    • Draft stock seems to be based largely on unrealized potential, aka "upside", aka hype​
    • Concerns about his length/reach as well as his size​
    Gary
    • DE with excellent size & some growth potential​
    • Superior athlete​
    • Best work comes against the run​
    • Disappointing passrush production & year to year development/improvement​
    • Draft stock seems to be based largely on unrealized potential, aka "upside", aka hype​
    • Best position could be under tackle (Oliver's probable pro position), thus the relevance of this surface level comparison​
     
  2. Crow

    Crow Alright, then. Let it be fear.

    Messages:
    52,758
    Likes Received:
    41,368
    According to PFF, each had only 25 total pressures this season; a far cry from the 55 Quinnen Williams tallied as a first year starter.

    Dre'Mont Jones, playing on the Nick Bosa-less Ohio State D-line, racked up nearly as many total pressures (48) as Oliver & Gary combined.


    Can we justify using the 4th overall pick on a DL with substandard passrush production because their athleticism says they should be capable of much more?

    Nevermind their run defense. You're not looking for run stuffers at the top of the draft. If I wanted a DE who doesn't rush the QB well, I'd re-sign Frostee Rucker.
     
  3. alteredst8

    alteredst8 ORDO AB CHAO

    Messages:
    19,466
    Likes Received:
    23,435
    They are...
     
  4. Crow

    Crow Alright, then. Let it be fear.

    Messages:
    52,758
    Likes Received:
    41,368
    Right now, I see both as interior DL prospects with the potential to impact the passing game, but without enough proven ability in that area to feel good about.


    Of the two, I believe Oliver is easily the better prospect in spite of his size limitations. He makes a ton of plays behind the line against the run. He's probably never going to come close to his hype due to physical limitations, but he's clearly a 1st round caliber player.

    Gary looks like a project at any position. I personally wouldn't gamble on that type of player with any of our 1st round picks when there are better passrushing DEs and better all around DTs available.
     
    Birdwell, alteredst8 and TheMadStork like this.
  5. gst8

    gst8 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    30,771
    Likes Received:
    41,434
    I assume we'll discuss this based on the premise that Bosa, Allen, and Q. Williams are off the board...

    I'm also going to use their best seasons since both seemed to be hurt or cruising this season in preparation for the draft.

    My one argument for Oliver being the better of the two prospects is that, if you translated their success exactly as is to the NFL, he at least produced at a level that wouldn't disappoint for his position. I'll take 5ish sacks and the TFL from a DT and at least feel like I'm getting solid production. There is no way that flies from a full time edge rusher though. There are probably 3rd round guys that can give us that. I'm not running to podium to draft either guy though.
     
    Crow likes this.
  6. 007

    007 Commitment To Excrement

    Messages:
    36,299
    Likes Received:
    36,106
    Just quit fuckin around.

    You put Montez Sweat into that #4 spot and forget about the rest of these chumps...

    He's got the H-W-S for us metrics super studs. He's got production.

    #29.95
     
  7. gst8

    gst8 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    30,771
    Likes Received:
    41,434
    Man... I'm really starting to consider trading down to a spot that I'd be comfortable taking Hockenson if the holy trinity are off the board. Green Bay's 2 firsts look mighty appealing... or a swap of firsts along with a teams 2020 first.
     
    phxraida15 likes this.
  8. 007

    007 Commitment To Excrement

    Messages:
    36,299
    Likes Received:
    36,106
    I trust this forum on a trade down more than the Raider brain trust.

    But I get it.

    Murphy's law. 3 STUD defenders who fill a need and we pick 4.
     
    Armyr8rfan, Crow and gst8 like this.
  9. gst8

    gst8 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    30,771
    Likes Received:
    41,434
    Yep, but Hockenson is really starting to look like Quenton Nelson did last year in that almost bullet proof prospect where you kind of question the value of drafting the position that high. I don't like the idea of trading down for lesser prospects but we might actually still be getting the BPA with a small bonus for trading down.
     
    Crow likes this.
  10. Madturk

    Madturk Football Guru

    Messages:
    49,387
    Likes Received:
    35,772
    I'm of the same opinion if the big 3 go as expected. Just our fucking luck that the drop off from 3 to 4 is pretty big. Im sick of taking guys with upside and potential. How's that worked out for us?
     
    NIPS, Crow and 007 like this.
  11. gst8

    gst8 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    30,771
    Likes Received:
    41,434
    I actually think dropping down for a teams 1st next year is solid. Gives us flexibility in 2020 while still getting a player that might still be top tier talent wise. Our position isn't really that bad though. Either a team ahead of us trades out and one of the big 3 drop to us or we're in the drivers seat for a trade. It's the likelihood that we'll still find a way to fuck it up that's problematic.
     
    Byron2112, Crow and DonkeyKilla like this.
  12. Crow

    Crow Alright, then. Let it be fear.

    Messages:
    52,758
    Likes Received:
    41,368
    I wasn't so much talking about which one we should draft in that worst case scenario where Bosa, Allen & Williams are gone; just that neither guy is a standout passrusher in spite of the hype, homers, narratives, rankings, Aaron Donald comps, etc.


    Gary is a DE who can't get to the QB and doesn't make the plays or show up on the stat sheet the way someone with his athletic ability should. Can't blame doubleteams. He's not being doubled more than Oliver or Williams. What's the deal? It's not all about stats. But a passrusher who doesn't have much success rushing the passer (sacks or hurries) raises an eyebrow.

    Oliver is small. I've seen him speculated to be as small as 270 pounds. What about his arm length? He makes a lot of plays against the run, but not many as a passrusher. More than Gary, but nowhere near what Donald was doing at Pittsburgh. Why do we expect him to become the guy we've all heard about as a pro when he couldn't do it in 3 years playing in a conference that doesn't exactly feature the nation's strongest competition?

    Both have a TON of unrealized potential. Why haven't they realized it?

    Did Gary (34 games played over 3 seasons) improve in any meaningful way from year to year?

    Oliver (32 games played over 3 seasons) appears to have made progress, but still isn't the impact passrusher his athletic "gifts" should have allowed him to become.
     
  13. Crow

    Crow Alright, then. Let it be fear.

    Messages:
    52,758
    Likes Received:
    41,368
    Sleet and DonkeyKilla like this.
  14. Madturk

    Madturk Football Guru

    Messages:
    49,387
    Likes Received:
    35,772
    Well hopefully with Mayock's guidance we don't fugg this up. Tired of hearing Gruden talk about the lack of a pass rush. I just hope to hell someone grabs Jonah Williams or a QB before us. If not, is it going to be Clelin or a trade down?
     
    Crow likes this.
  15. alteredst8

    alteredst8 ORDO AB CHAO

    Messages:
    19,466
    Likes Received:
    23,435
    I think it's highly likely a team moves up for a QB into the top 3.
     
    Crow likes this.
  16. BigTron

    BigTron Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,913
    Likes Received:
    10,632
    Sweat 259 pass rush attempts 44 pressures

    Oliver 270 pass rush attempts 25 pressures

    Gary 189 pass rush attempts 24 pressures

    These are three very risky high upside players. I fully agree that they didnt show out enough in college to warrant hype over players who did. With that said, ignoring physical freaks like Gary/Oliver is easier said than done. Id be willing to bet money at least ONE of those two players becomes a perennial pro-bowl type huge contract player by his next contract. Risky business tho!


    Gary just passes the eyeball test for me on the field. Im not gonna sit here and make excuses for him tho. Just my opinion after watching years and years of DL. This kid can play. That is all. Not gonna over speculate his draft position, but I will go on record saying id be shocked if he busts and Id draft him somewhere in round one all day and not worry about that lack of production. I more worry about his injuries honestly.

    I did also tell this board over and over that Hurst was good last year when people didnt wanna listen. Now y'all love him.
     
    Armyr8rfan and Sleet like this.
  17. Sleet

    Sleet #2018: Return of Gru

    Messages:
    61,281
    Likes Received:
    28,200
    Crow likes this.
  18. Crow

    Crow Alright, then. Let it be fear.

    Messages:
    52,758
    Likes Received:
    41,368
    Is this a #FP# prediction?
     
  19. Crow

    Crow Alright, then. Let it be fear.

    Messages:
    52,758
    Likes Received:
    41,368
    You already know my feelings on this. Someone offers us a 2020 1st rounder, that's a deal I'd look to close.
     
    007 likes this.
  20. london raider 2

    london raider 2 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,142
    Likes Received:
    803
    But this time get a team that doesnt make the playoffs !