PFF’s top 3 WR and take on Agholor (PFF agrees with most on this board to pay him $7.5M to stay):
1. WR CHRIS GODWIN
The 2019 season showed the ceiling that Chris Godwin can reach. He finished the year with a 90.7 overall PFF grade and was one of the very best receivers in football. Given his impressive grades over the first two seasons of his NFL career before that, it seemed like a natural breakout point. Injuries slowed him down in 2020, but Godwin finished with a strong 80.2 receiving grade and a passer rating of 131.9 when targeted.
Godwin is an exceptionally talented and versatile receiver who has great hands — dropping just four passes in his first three seasons— and he has excelled from both an outside and slot alignment. Godwin’s projection will likely depend on what the second half of the 2020 season holds for him. If he can get back to the form he showed in 2019, he may be one of the best receiver free agents to hit the open market in years.
Contract Analysis: Godwin was eligible for an extension after 2019, and Tampa Bay probably would’ve (should’ve) given him one if it didn’t land
Tom Brady for a Super Bowl push. Godwin was also apparently on board with adding
Antonio Brown, so he’s clearly a team-first player.
Prediction: Buccaneers franchise tag Godwin for 2021, and a deal is not reached before the season starts.
2. WR ALLEN ROBINSON II
It’s impossible not to feel a little bit sorry for Allen Robinson II given the quarterback situations he has dealt with dating back to at least high school. He may have chosen his latest nightmare in Chicago, but the combination of
Mitchell Trubisky and
Nick Foles did not encourage much success, yet Robinson continually excels.
Robinson hasn’t had an overall PFF grade lower than 69.0 in his career or lower than 75.0 since the 2018 season, his first in Chicago. He consistently showcases excellent hands and contested-catch skills, dropping no more than three passes in a season since his time in Jacksonville. Robinson graded out at 88.4 during the 2020 regular season — fifth best in the league — and he is still only 27 years old. His ceiling with a high-end quarterback could be special.
Contract Analysis: Robinson could close his eyes and throw a dart at a U.S. map, and he’ll end up with a better quarterback at his new destination. He’s another franchise-tag candidate, but Chicago’s current salary cap nightmare could make fitting $18 million (Robinson’s minimum tag) in 2021 borderline impossible.
Prediction: Dolphins sign Robinson for four years, $84 million ($21M APY): $52.5 million total guaranteed, $35 million fully guaranteed at signing.
3. WR KENNY GOLLADAY
There may be no better endorsement of a top receiver than the difference it makes to his quarterback when he is on the field.
Matthew Stafford is a different player when Golladay is on the field, and the wideout clearly has confidence in his ability to go up and get the football in tough spots. He battled injuries this season, but Golladay’s 628 yards on deep (20-plus yard) passes ranked second in the league in 2019.
Golladay has the size and athleticism required to be a big target on the outside, along with that contested-catch prowess, but he also possesses enough nuance in his route running to function well in any system. The NFC North has featured some great receivers in recent seasons, and Golladay is up there with the best of them.
Contract Analysis: Golladay is probably the most likely franchise tag recipient in the NFL at this point. We don’t think the rumors of him to the Giants through trade were by accident; Golladay’s representation was probably trying to help him land on a team more interested in giving him the long-term contract he deserves.
Prediction: Lions franchise tag Kenny Golladay for 2021, and a deal is not reached before the season starts.
Otherwise: Giants sign Golladay for four years, $85 million ($21.25M APY): $57.5 million total guaranteed, $37.5 million fully guaranteed.
10. WR NELSON AGHOLOR
It’s been a career of inconsistency for Agholor, who has been good in two of his five years with three other seasons being marred by dropped passes and disappointing production. However, Agholor was an excellent slot receiver for the Eagles in 2017, as Philadelphia quarterbacks had a 114.5 passer rating when targeting him.
His 2020 campaign with Las Vegas has netted similar production, albeit in a different role. Agholor has become a legitimate downfield threat for the Raiders, posting career-highs in yards, and touchdowns while dwarfing his career yards per reception numbers with a 17.9 mark. The question is whether Agholor can sustain his success, and that question is better asked of him in a complementary role rather than a feature one.
Contract Analysis: These flash-in-the-pan players like Agholor can be hard to project, as he’s a former first-round pick coming off a 900-yard, eight-touchdown season. However, Agholor still had nine drops on his 82 targets, which earned him a 31.7 drop grade (109th of 115 wide receivers with at least 30 targets).
Prediction: Raiders sign Agholor for two years, $15 million ($7.5M APY): $9 million total guaranteed, $7 million fully guaranteed at signing.
