The RB Room 2020

Anthony McFarland Jr., Maryland Terrapins
BackCAST score: +39.1%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Clinton Portis, Chris Brown

McFarland is a solid if unspectacular prospect. He soaked up carries at a slightly higher rate than the average drafted running back, averaging roughly a half-yard per carry more than the average drafted running back, and he ran a fast 4.44-second 40-yard dash but was a little light at 208 pounds. McFarland would be a grossly overrated prospect as a first-round pick, but he is clearly not -- he's likely to go somewhere in the late third or early fourth where he could be a great value play.
 
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU Tigers
BackCAST score: -36.1%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael

Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete nonfactor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore.

Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per-play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.

However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof.
Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the 10 lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds who recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing. For example, the complete list of running backs drafted since 1998 who ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at less than 210 pounds is Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizable impact in the NFL.

A second-round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is if there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success.
 
Raidervinny said:
Cam Akers, Florida State Seminoles
BackCAST score: +51.7%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Jay Ajayi, Anthony Thomas

Akers has a similar projection to Swift, and the two are like opposite sides of the same coin. Unlike Swift, Akers had a heavy workload in college, recording a significantly larger slice of his backfield's carries than the average drafted running back. However, while Swift was super productive on a per-play basis, Akers was not. Akers averaged only 4.9 yards per carry. Swift and Akers had similar combines as well. Akers is five pounds heavier and ran the 40-yard dash a hundredth of a second faster.

Akers, however, might be a better value prospect than Swift. A +50% prospect might not present value in the first round but is definitely a value pick in the fourth round.
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Gimme in the third.
 
How big is the skill gap when one guy gets a +196% score and Edwards-Helaire gets a -39% score?

How the fuck does the math add up? Will CEH get negative yards every play, trip over his own feet, poop his pants and fumble?
 
Ted likes Dobbins.


Ted Nguyen @FB_FilmAnalysis 48m
RT @GrahamBarfield: J.K. Dobbins' nimbleness and ability to convert his burst/speed into power is something else. Dobbins' 5.04 yards created per attempt is best among the consensus top-5 RBs: 2) Taylor - 4.82 3) Swift - 4.73 4) CEH - 4.50 5) Akers - 4.37 https://t.co/54TzYvTHt3
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007 said:
How big is the skill gap when one guy gets a +196% score and Edwards-Helaire gets a -39% score?

How the fuck does the math add up? Will CEH get negative yards every play, trip over his own feet, poop his pants and fumble?
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Sleatmath??
 
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007 said:
How big is the skill gap when one guy gets a +196% score and Edwards-Helaire gets a -39% score?

How the fuck does the math add up? Will CEH get negative yards every play, trip over his own feet, poop his pants and fumble?
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I think CEH is really good, personally. He could give Gruden his Charlie Garner-y type. I'd just hate to spend a 3rd on a backup RB.
 
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D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

Why he fits today's NFL: Swift is a prime fit for today's zone run schemes in the NFL. The juice is there to bend the ball back on inside zone runs or to press the edge on a stretch scheme. But Swift's pro impact jumps even more because of his receiving traits. He shows the sudden ability to change direction and the immediate burst to separate from coverage when put in an NFL scheme that features the running back in the pass game.

Whether the Georgia product is releasing from the backfield on flats, angles and wheels, or flexed into the slot to draw a favorable matchup, Swift has the upside of a dual-threat back in the modern game.

NFL comp: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints


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Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

Why he fits today's NFL: Roll through the film on Edwards-Helaire and you will find a bunch of pro-level runs. With his compact frame at 5-7 and 207 pounds, and the ideal blend of power and shake, the LSU product can push through contact with his low pad level and leg drive, or simply skate past defenders.

But don't forget about the route-running skills in his game, because he has already shown the ability to produce as a pass target on his college tape. The lateral quicks are there to separate in the slot; he can get rolling on screen passes; and his route tree out of the backfield puts linebackers in the crosshairs. In addition to what Edwards-Helaire brings with his pro-ready running style, the receiving skills will allow NFL offensive coordinators to script pass game matchups for the rookie.

NFL comp: Devonta Freeman, free agent
 
Raidervinny said:
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D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

Why he fits today's NFL: Swift is a prime fit for today's zone run schemes in the NFL. The juice is there to bend the ball back on inside zone runs or to press the edge on a stretch scheme. But Swift's pro impact jumps even more because of his receiving traits. He shows the sudden ability to change direction and the immediate burst to separate from coverage when put in an NFL scheme that features the running back in the pass game.

Whether the Georgia product is releasing from the backfield on flats, angles and wheels, or flexed into the slot to draw a favorable matchup, Swift has the upside of a dual-threat back in the modern game.

NFL comp: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
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So I guess this means he will be a Chief. Fuck me.
 
gst8 said:
I actually think in practice Renfrow is that Garner guy.
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I hope we make Jacobs our Garner guy. Give it to him out of the backfield early and let him work. No reason he shouldn't be catching 50+ balls next year.
 
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