Watched into the third quarter on the condensed game feed. Brees looked terrible, Mr. Bundchen played even worse.
Really looks like Brees woke up and found his arm had gotten old. He missed receivers who were wide open when he wasn't pressured. And on several completions he threw behind the receiver who made a decent adjustment. The only thing that worked reliably was the screen game, and throwing to Kamara wide behind the LoS. The challenges on O aren't Brees but are Kamara in the receiving game, Hill when he comes in at QB they run option stuff and he's fast but will throw, and #11 who is very fast and small -- a perfect guy for Robertson to match up with.
On D, the Saints looked good against runs going wide, and got eaten up by Ronald Jones running inside, It will be important to see who starts at RT for the Raiders, but the Silver and Black O-line is light years ahead of the Bucs' line, and Jacobs is a far better back. Brady was really bad in week one, and without Pi he had nothing beyond twelve yards. That allowed the Saints to load the box, and the Bucs still ran okay. The Saints have a decent secondary, but they didn't have much to worry about week one. Against the Raiders, they do, so we'll see. I like the matchup of Kolton Miller against Cam Jordan, and it is always best to run at little guys like that early -- it just so happens that the strength of the line now is Hudson, Incognito and Miller.
The key to this game is the D playing fundamentally sound. Cle Ferrell called when he said the O-line had to maintain their rush lanes, and Jonathan Abrams nailed when he said the D had to come out fast and finish strong. Abrams is the intense and inspirational guy, Ferrell is the hold you accountable for the little things guy. Read your keys, don't get suckered by screens, know where Kamara is and assign someone to him in the passing game, and communicate in the back 7.
Losing Kwiatkowski is huge. What helps make that less bad than it seems is that Abrams is a very smart football player, and he spent all last year learning everything he could about Gunther's system. After Kwiatkowski went down, he was the one getting the back 7 organized, and he made a special effort to make sure Arnette was in the loop.
tl;dr Brees isn't scary. Raiders win, and a rout is far more likely than a loss.