Comp Picks

[S and B Executioner]

Does anyone have clue what the possibilities are for us as far comp picks go? I am thinking we get two picks: a 3 for Aso and a 5 for Gallery.
Someone help me out.

[Postmaster]

Should get something for Thomas Howard/Zach Miller too. I guess Boss will somewhat cancel out Miller. Gradkowski didn't play so not sure he factors in at all.

I think we are looking at 3-4 comp picks, least I hope so.

[007]

Its based of contract/playing time/post season honors. Re-signings do not count. (Huffy). Re-structures do not count (A shit ton). Stats do not matter. (AdamJT13 proved this at KFFL). Signing a guy once the season started like Sheppard does not matter.



Lost--->

Asomugha:5 year 60
Miller: 5 year 34
Gallery: 3 year 15
Howard: 2 year 6.5
Grads: Unknown.

Gained ---->

Kevin Boss: 4 year 16
Heyer 1 year 1.7

Now Howard/Boss should cancel out. Both started a ton, played lots of games and had solid years.

I am pretty sure Aso signed the biggest contract last year, right? He also played most games and is probably a Pro Bowl alternate.

Verdict: Probably pick 96. A 4th rounder AT WORST.

Zach Miller signed a big contract, one of the most expensive of the offseason. Luckily stats are not factored in and its simply playing time.

Verdtict: Probably a 4th, A 5th AT WORST.

Robert Gallery's contract averages 5 mil/year and he played 12 games.

Verdict: A 6th rounder, maybe a 5th.

Also we should get one of those 'net comp picks' at the end of round 7 for losing more players than we signed.

My prediction

3rd for Nam
4th for Miller
6th for Gallery
7th for Net comp.

[Crow]

I have no formula, but my wild guess looks pretty much like 007's.

[Madturk]

I'm thinking a 3rd for Miller. And why exactly did we get rid of Howard, probably our best coverage backer?

[Crow]

He had become completely useless in run defense and was a dummy.

[RaiderRobert]

I'm thinking a 3rd for Miller. And why exactly did we get rid of Howard, probably our best coverage backer?

Hard to cover anybody from the bench...

[Madturk]

Hard to cover anybody from the bench...

Well Zimmer sure knows how to use him in Cincy:rolleyes:

[007]

Well Zimmer sure knows how to use him in Cincy:rolleyes:

It happens.

You miss on Howard and hit on Curry.

He seemed to have worn out his welcome. He was sitting behind Groves which is stupid.

[CrossBones]

Groves?

Yo Quentin, Mr. McKenzie wants to see yo in his office. Oh and, bring your play book! ;)

[Birdwell]

007 seems to have it more or less on.

So what we're looking at (most sensibly noted)
top 4th round (comp for Nnamdi)
top 5th round (Zach Miller)
Our 5th round
Our 6th round
Top 7th round (Gallery)
end 7th (Net comp)

So if we're able to do the same kind of stuff we've done the past three seasons, we're looking at notable contributions. Guys we've grabbed the past five seasons after round 3:
Michael Bush
Tyvon Branch
Jacoby Ford
Louis Murphy
Taiwan Jones
Bruce Campbell
Chimdi Chekwa
Denarius Moore
Travis Goethel
Trevor Scott
Oren O'Neal (potential pro-bowl FB until he destroyed his knee on KO coverage in an exhibition game)
Brandon Myers
Richard Gordon
Chaz Schilens
David Ausberry

Knock all we want about some of those guys, but they are projected to be significant players for this team in 2012, at least as of now. The only guys I see probably not figuring in are Chaz and or Murphy, Myers and maybe Scott.

[Birdwell]

It happens.

You miss on Howard and hit on Curry.

He seemed to have worn out his welcome. He was sitting behind Groves which is stupid.

Yep. Though to his credit, while Groves was thoroughly unspectacular and not so good in coverage, he did show the ability to shed blocks, which Howard was inexplicably unable to do.

[Crow]

This gets asked every offseason, but who is the guy who seems to be nails at predicting comp picks? Is it that AdamJT13 from KFFL that 007 mentioned, or some staffer from a football site?

[Crow]

I guess that's him. Another prognosticator referenced him specifically.

http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/6/2686334/2012-compensatory-draft-pick-predictions

2012 Compensatory Draft Pick Predictions
Tiny by ct17 on Jan 6, 2012 12:05 PM PST

I have again this year decided to try to predict compensatory draft picks to feed my draft obsession. Last year I did rather well, in that I was able to correctly assign picks for players with the exception of Seattle and Baltimore, where a midseason contract renegotiation with Cory Redding that I was not aware of gave Baltimore a pick instead of Seattle receiving a rather high pick from losing Burleson. I was also off by a round for a few picks, most of which I can relate to playing time differential.

I again claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original. I shamelessly used AdamJT13's publicly posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. Unfortunately it looks like he has abandoned his research. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.

2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.

3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

This year was an unusual year in that the new labor contract virtually eliminated RFAs, and does so in the future as well. Also, because of the shortened time before the season, a lot of contracts went unreported, which means that I had to spend a lot of time looking for the information. There remain about a dozen players for which I failed to find information, and this is noted where relevant below.

I awarded 28 normal comp picks. I actually am leaning towards this number being 27, but I wanted to show the possible scenarios below. I am fairly confident in this number, but less confident in their order, because I am not sure how much the amount of playing time alters the placement by salary. Last year it lowered Artis Hicks significantly, but not AJ Feeley, who did not take a snap. I awarded 0 net value picks (value difference between players lost and signed). Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 4-5 additional picks at the end, which according to AdamJT13 follows the order that would be used if there were an eighth round.

I will first list the comp picks awarded and then provide the related team free agent activity at the end. I am not explaining teams that did not get comp picks to save time. But if you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, let me know.

Compensatory Picks Awarded (round - team - player lost)

3 - Oakland - Nnamdi Asomugha (Should be the top comp pick, so yay.)

3 - Minnesota - Sidney Rice

3 - Oakland - Zach Miller (possibly a 4) (As mentioned, fuck his stats. The dude was on the field.

4 - Green Bay - Cullen Jenkins

4 - Minnesota - Ray Edwards (possibly no pick, see below)

4 - Indianapolis - Clint Session (possibly a 6 for Johnson, see below)

4 - Baltimore - Dawan Landry

4 - Green Bay - Daryn Colledge

4 - Dallas - Stephen Bowen

4 - Oakland - Robert Gallery (possibly a 5 or no pick, see below)

6 - New York Giants - Kevin Boss (possibly a 5)

6 - New York Jets - Shaun Ellis (possibly a 5)

6 - Indianapolis - Charlie Johnson (possibly a 4 for Session, see below)

6 - Cleveland - Eric Wright

6 - New York Jets - Brad Smith

6 - Cleveland - Matt Roth

6 - Atlanta - Michael Koenen (possibly no pick, see below)

7 - New York Jets - Drew Coleman

7 - Carolina - Jeff King (possibly a 6, it's complicated)

7 - Pittsburgh - Matt Spaeth

7 - New York Giants - Steve Smith (possibly no pick, see below)

7 - Green Bay - Brandon Jackson

7 - Indianapolis - Bob Sanders

7 - Cleveland - Lawrence Vickers

7 - Green Bay - Jason Spitz

7 - Pittsburgh - Nick Eason

7 - New York Jets - Braylon Edwards

7 - Cleveland - Jason Trusnik

And the additional picks:

7 - St. Louis

7 - Indianapolis

7 - Minnesota

7 - Tampa Bay

7 - Cleveland (if a pick is lost above)

The predictions above assume that Reggie Kelly, Devin Aromashadu, Steve Weatherford, and Maurice Stovall received minimum salaries. If Stovall received a higher salary, Tampa Bay will get a 7th round selection. I assumed that Gradkowski got a significant enough salary to be included in the calculations - this does not affect Cincinnati, but it would cost Oakland their pick for Gallery. I could not find salary numbers for Floyd Womack or Dimitri Patterson, which would only affect Cleveland, but my predictions should generally be fine unless Patterson made significantly more than Womack. The location of the pick could change - possibly Trusnik is the one cancelled out. I also could not find salary numbers for Turk McBride or Marvin Mitchell, which would only affect New Orleans, and again only if Mitchell made significantly more than McBride. Of all these assumptions in this paragraph, I am fairly confident except for Weatherford. I could see him making enough to knock out the Steve Smith pick [*UPDATE: Weatherford does not qualify, Giants get the pick]. Neither the Jets or Cleveland could benefit much from my wrong assumptions because they already received the maximum four picks. The limit on four compensatory picks cost Green Bay an additional 7th rounder for Korey Hall.

UPDATE 1/10: Now that Sanders does not qualify, if Brandon Siler's contract with KC qualifies, then SD could get a 5th for losing Burnett.

An interesting situation comes into play with Indianapolis' highest pick. It only came to light a few years ago that compensation for 10-year veterans will not exceed a 5th round pick regardless of salary. However, it appears to be unknown whether the salary, or the adjusted 5th round pick, affects how another player is canceled out. If Kerry Collins' contract number is used, it would cancel out Session and result in a 6th round compensation for Charlie Johnson. If the 5th round value is used, it would cancel out Johnson and give Indy a 4th rounder for Session.

Explanations (with contract signed):

Atlanta -

Lost: Dahl (4 yr $16 million), Koenen (6 yr $19.5 million)
Signed: Edwards (5 yr $30 million)

Baltimore -

Lost: McClain (1 yr $1.5 million), Chester (4 yr $16 million), Wilson (3 yr $13.5 million), Landry (5 yr $27.5 million)
Signed: Leach (3 yr $11 million), Williams (2 yr $2.6 million), Pollard (2 yr $2.75 million)

Carolina -

Lost: Moore (2 yr $5 million), King (3 yr $6 million), Marshall (1 yr $3.5 million)
Signed: Edwards (3 yr $8.25 million), Mare (4 yr $12 million)

Cleveland -

Lost: Womack (?), Vickers (2 yr $3 million), Stuckey (2 yr $3.5 million), Roth (1 yr $3 million), Trusnik (2 yr $2 million), Wright (1 yr $3.5 million), Elam (1 yr $2.5 million)
Signed: Jackson (2 yr $4.5 million), Patterson(?), Young (3 yr $6 million)

Dallas -

Lost: Hurd (3 yr $5.15 million), Bowen (5 yr $27.5 million)
Signed: Elam (1 yr $2.5 million)

Green Bay -

Lost: Colledge (5 yr $27.5 million), Spitz (3 yr $5.25 million), Hall (2 yr $2 million), Jackson (2 yr $4.5 million), Jenkins (5 yr $30.4 million)
Signed: None

Indianapolis -

Lost: Session (5 yr $29 million), Johnson (3 yr $10.5 million), Sanders (1 yr $2 million)
Signed: Collins (2 yr $14 million)

Minnesota -

Lost: Jackson (2 yr $8 million), Rice (5 yr $41 million), Edwards (5 yr $30 million)
Signed: Johnson (3 yr $10.5 million), Ayodele (3 yr $9 million)

New York Giants -

Lost: Smith (1 yr $2.2 million), Boss (4 yr $16 million), Cofield (6 yr $36 million)
Signed: Baas (5 yr $27.5 million), Weatherford (?)

New York Jets -

Lost: Edwards (1 yr $1 million), Smith (4 yr $15 million), Ellis (1 yr $4 million), Coleman (3 yr $7.4 million), Weatherford (?)
Signed: None

Oakland -

Lost: Gradkowski (?), Gallery (3 yr $15 million), Miller (5 yr $34 million), Howard (2 yr $6.5 million), Asomugha (5 yr $60 million)
Signed: Heyer (1 yr $1.7 million), Boss (4 yr $16 million)

Pittsburgh -

Lost: Spaeth (3 yr $6 million), Eason (2 yr $2 million)
Signed: None

LATE ADDITION:

Just realized I should give an approximation of the annual salary ranges of picks.

3 - $6.5/$7 million and greater

4 - $5 to $6.5/$7 million

5 - $4 to $5 million

6 - $2.5/2.75 to $4 million

7 - $1 to $2.5/2.75 million


4 comp picks maximum. Booo!

[CrossBones]

Oakland - Robert Gallery (possibly a 5 or no pick, see below)I hope it happens but that would be highway robbery for the Raiders. :^