Are we better (yes); by how much?

[Sleet]

This offseason, the Raiders have upgraded the offense more than defense. But I think the biggest upgrades will be in coaching and the lockerroom. That is where, it seems, Cable has put his focus.

I don't doubt the Raiders will be better next year. Too much evidence to think otherwise. The question is, by how much.

Offense

QB: JR '09 (Garcia) > JR '08 (Walter). This is a no brainer. JR will be in his 3rd year; he won't have a hold-out or mid-season coaching change to deal with; he's working with quality QB coaches this offseason; he'll be working with his starting WRs and building on the chemistry he found with Higgins and Schilens at the end of last year; he'll have a better OL, running game, more weapons. And, Garcia's a huge upgrade over Walter; that's a no brainer.

RB: McFad/Bush/Fargus '09 > Fargus/McFad/Bush '08. This is another no brainer. Fargus got the nod last year, and Bush got pushed down the depth chart. I can only pray that McFad and Bush get the opportunity to become the one-two punch we all want to see. Fargus is a team player, and I'll think he'll gladly accept a back-up role, and be ready to play. He was the back-up for Jordon and Rhodes, without complaints. This could work out well.

FB: Neal(?)/Lawton > Griffin/Lawton. We need to get this done. I have no confidence O'Neal can return this year. He's likely a year away. Griffin, to me, was a let down last year, even before his injury. I thought Lawton played as well. But neither got the job done in the red-zone or in short yardage situations. That's where Neal can come in. The wildcard is M. Reece, the conversion project last year. If that guy can learn to lead block, he could be one of the most athletic FBs in the league.

WR: Schilens/JLH/DHB > Walker/Curry/Lelie. This unit can't be any worse than last's year's. I'm not confident that Walker's coming back; the Raiders drafted DHB #7, so he has to get on the field. Schilens showed too much potential/chemistry with JR not to play. JLH's starting breaking, out, last year, too. So, I think Walker has to beat these players out; he won't be given anything. I predict IR. The Raiders also have more depth. I think Shields and Murphy both make the roster. Shields might give us another JLH's type WR, and Murphy another fast, possession/Schilens type WR. Watkins is done. Stick a fork in him. Holland will have to blow up to have a chance.

OL: Henderson/Gallery/Satele/Carlisle/Barnes > Harris/Gallery/Grove/Carlisle/Green. This is the key to our offseason, and offense. If the projected upgrades work, the offense can grow. If not, our youth will show and be exposed. But I have confidence that all five starters will play better this year. Henderson immediately showed last year that he was better than Harris, and our offense had good games and he played well against good DEs. Barnes is a huge upgrade over Green. Barnes' best years with the Jags was at RT (not LT). My hope is that Henderson wins the LT job (I think he's a better pass blocker), and Barnes sees the sense of playing RT. He has more power/better run-blocker than Henderson, and he struggled at LT with the Jags, giving up too many sacks/penalties. I think Gallery is ready to have a career year. Satele was a steal, and I hope he's a perfect fit for Cable's ZBS. With the better talent around him, Carlisle should have a bounce-back year. He played better in '07 than '08, but Carlisle had good games against Houston and Tampa, and I hope that carries over.

Bottom line: At all positions, I see upgrades.

Defense

DT: Kelly/Warren/Sands '09 ? Kelly/Warren/Sands '08: You can only hope the new coaching staff gets more out of our DTs. There is reason for optimism. Kelly was coming off a knee, and our new coaching staff might be able to get more out of Sands. I do think Joseph and the FA from the Redskins will both make the roster, play/rotate more, which will make Kelly/Warren/Sands more effective when he's in, with less of a drop off than last year.

DE: Burgess/Scott/Richardson/Oshaunessy '09 ? Burgess/Richardson/Edwards/Scott '08: Another big question mark. Can Burgess stay healthy and return to form? Is Scott ready to take the next step? Will Richardson continue to disappear at times? Will the rook contribute? Will Al sign another veteran FA as a stop gap?

LB: Morrison/Howard/??? '09 ? Morrison/Howard/Brown '08: More questions. Will Brown win the starting job at SAM? Can Howard get stronger at the point of attack? Can Morrison? Can the rookies contribute?

CB: Aso/CJ/Routt/Miller/Bowe '09 > Aso/D'Hall/CJ/Routt/Miller '08: I count this as an upgrade, because D'Hall was so bad to start the season last year. That said, D'Hall did have 3 pics and his departure moves CJ, Routt, Miller and Bowe up the depth chart. Hopefully, we can expect more of what we saw at the end of last year, when Aso and CJ played very well, as did the replacements (but for one blown assignment) when Aso got injured. And maybe, just maybe, we'll see what we got in Bowe.

S: ???/??? '09 ? Wilson/Huff' '08: Here's the biggest question mark. Will Mitchell and Branch win the starting jobs? Will they play at a high level? Will they support the run as much as Wilson? Will they play better than Huff, Baker and Eugene in coverage. There is reason to think they will, at least eventually. The coaching staff seems high on Mitchell and Branch. While I prefer building the D from the inside out, Mitchell and Branch could give us two safeties for the first time in years that are both good against the run and pass. My concern is that Mitchell might struggle against the pass.

Bottom line: The defense will be better if (a) the offense is better and (b) the coaching is better. The talent seems relatively the same.

Special teams

K: SeaBass '09 = SeaBass '08
KR: Miller '09 = Miller '08
P: Lechler = Lechler
PR: JLH '09 = JLH '08
Coverage units: Hopefully they play as well, too

Bottom line: Hopefully the special team builds off their strong season last year. With the rule changes, it will be interesting to see if Miller is just as effective. Given the team's youth and speed, there's no reason to expect any drop off, particularly with the return of Branch and addition of Mitchell (replacing the loss of Cooper).

Overall: The team has improved. By keeping Aso and Lechler, coupled with the me v. the world attitude/chip on our shoulders after the draft, which correlates to low expectations, I think the Raiders will compete in the AFC West. Hopefully the Raiders can build off their strong finish last year.

Prediction: SD, Oak, KC, Den

[DonkeyKilla]

good analysis as always sleet. Our offense should be better- the D is a big question. I hope we can find a good DT off waivers. I was listening to Sirius yesterday and they were talking about why the falcons took a DT in the first round-- because they aren't to be had in FA. I hope DHB and Mitchell really shine because we passed up some prime opps to get a solid DT for our rotation.

[Postmaster]

Our improvement depends on how our 07 and 08 drafts develop. Those 12-14 guys are the heart and soul of our team.

http://www.raiders.com/History/Default.aspx?id=880

[Sleet]

DK: Fully agreed. Given that Pitts got Ziggy Hood, NE got R. Brace (from us), we let Raji pass to G.B. and we watched as Gilbert and Johnson got selected right before us in round 3, it was very disappointing in this regard. Al's faith in Burgess/rookie, Kelly/Joseph, Warren/Sands, Richardson/Scott sure seems misplaced. We'll see.

[Armyr8rfan]

Nice stuff Sleet. Agree 100%. This is the most talent we've had on O in some time. I think we're all hoping the biggest upgrade on D was John Marshall.

[hawaiianboy]

What, 3 posts in and nobody has called you a Kool Aid drinking homer, obviously brain washed by the Cult of L. Ron Davis?... :p


I'm not too worried about the defense as far as this year goes.... The season will sink or swim on whether or not JaMarcus takes the next step up to being a productive QB on a consistent basis and whether the O-line can pass protect... If we can't protect the QB and we still have a subpar passing game come November and December, it's likely we'll be in a similar draft spot next year no matter how the defense plays...

I don't trust Mario Henderson and I don't know that we had the luxury to develop DHB when we need a guy that can contribute right now...

I was told that much of our defensive problems revolved around Rob Ryan... I guess we're going to find out...

[BigPoppaPump]

HBoy, pretty damn spot on. I think it safe to say that our running game should be better due to health and age. We have a good run scheme and the players to make it work.

If JR is better, than team also cannot stack the box against us. He needs to have WRs that can catch and get open. We need disciplined route runners too because that will help him. We also need Miller to become that rock he can use as an out when things go bad.

Simply put, it is all JR.



Defense....we are still going to get hurt against the run. We stunk, and have stunk for years, against it. We did not do anything to address this imo (and please....do not say the S or else I will laugh in your general direction).



Right now if I am game planning against Oakland, I stack the box on and force JR to throw. On O, I pound the rock like my life depended on it. Once I get the DL tired and the rest of the D is sneaking up to help, I go over the top. I really feel bad for our S's because they need to crowd the line as it is due to our anemic run D and thus are setting themselves up to get burnt in pass coverage.

[DonkeyKilla]

HBoy, pretty damn spot on. I think it safe to say that our running game should be better due to health and age. We have a good run scheme and the players to make it work.

If JR is better, than team also cannot stack the box against us. He needs to have WRs that can catch and get open. We need disciplined route runners too because that will help him. We also need Miller to become that rock he can use as an out when things go bad.

Simply put, it is all JR.



Defense....we are still going to get hurt against the run. We stunk, and have stunk for years, against it. We did not do anything to address this imo (and please....do not say the S or else I will laugh in your general direction).



Right now if I am game planning against Oakland, I stack the box on and force JR to throw. On O, I pound the rock like my life depended on it. Once I get the DL tired and the rest of the D is sneaking up to help, I go over the top. I really feel bad for our S's because they need to crowd the line as it is due to our anemic run D and thus are setting themselves up to get burnt in pass coverage.

yep. we draft safety after safety and sign FA's but safeties aren't really the problem. Our D-line stinks, good safeties won't hide that fact.

[Langlier]

The biggest thing for this team right now is continuity

Cable being brought back as head coach after leading this team to its strongest finish in 6 years gives me the most hope.

Adding some solid veterans for cheap (Khalif Barnes, Jeff Garcia) and retaining people that performed well for us (Asomugha, Lechler, Johnson), gives us a solid base to build on.

How much better we are depends entirely on development of our younger players

Starting at the top

QB - Jamarcus Russell - OK kid. Year 3. We got you some new toys (DHB, Murphy), and our running game should improve (healthy McFadden, better OL). We need things to click and it all starts with you. I think you're up to the task. If Murphy and DHB can catch fly routes AT ALL then we did well by drafting them as last year we just didnt have a WR that could do that for you.

RB - How good is McFadden when fully healthy... If he's effective as he was vs the chiefs... then we have a game breaker. We need more from all of our RBs and not just from running the ball but from catching it.

WR - heres where the biggest improvement from our team is needed. and now we've got some new guys with huge potential (DHB/Murphy), some young guys who may have developed some reliability (JLH/Schilens), and some guys who if healthy can help out (Sheilds/Walker). It can't be worse then last year.

OL - 3 new starters can either make or break us. but at least we have competition. Barnes was great his first 2 years in the league. Henderson showed something his last couple games... And thats discounting guys we don't know where are (McQ, Marten, Pears). We have options. Lets maximize them

TE/FB - we added a big blocker and are looking to get another... I LOVE IT. Smashmouth football is a raider tradition. Lets get back to it. Miller is still a stud. O'Neal could help out and Lawton is a decent role player.

Defense

John Marshall is an experienced defensive assistant and Defensive coordinator

He's a Ray Rhodes disciple. He likes his linebackers. He';; blitz more then ryan but will run a similar scheme. What does that mean for our team?

RDE - traditionally Marshall has a very high rotation at all positions. You won't see a lot of stars on his defensive lines and lots of role players. so until we have some training camps... I don't know who will be starting where but I can guess at defined roles. Scott will be our 3rd down RE. Richardson/Shagnasty could both be 2 down guys. I see shagnasty as more of an RE with Richardson shifting over to left. Stryker could also get some looks as a passing down DE.

UT - Kelly is our guy here. I think he'll improve greatly from last year being healthy. I think Joseph may get some additional snaps here and could be a reclamation project

NT - we need one. Warren can play the position but not well. Sands is in danger of getting cut. No other options scares me

LDE - Burgess is our starter in pencil. He "can" be effective here. but with our bass ackward d he may be out and richardson may start as a more traditional base end. we'll see where we are here in tc

WLB - Howard is a stud athletically. However he needs to not overpursue and he needs to work on getting off blocks. Alston should move back to being a backup and I think he'll work better there

MLB - Morrison - see howard. He took a step back last year. If we can improve up fron we shold be able to see better production from Morrison. I'm excited to see what Sulak and Joseph can bring with thier different skillsets

SLB - Brown, Slade, Sammy Dub, Sulak... We've got options here. Best man win.

CB - we know what we have here. its good.

S - Mitchell and Branch... If they can MAKE PLAYS from the S position - all is good. If we can reclaim huff at either... all the better

[Stanny]

What makes our defense better is keeping them off the field...we sure have asked them to do alot over the past three years. If our offense (this alludes to HB's comments which I agree) does not produce and through the course of the game there are a bunch of three and outs, that defense will continue to get tired, which leads to undiciplined play and we will continue to get pounded on and we will lose. Something we had during the Gruden regime and when Callahan was calling plays was an offense. That offense was able to sustain drives and convert the third downs. This is where Russell has to come up huge for us...If we can get three yards a crack running the ball and Russell is left with 3rd and 4, he needs to convert. Needs to make the correct read and provide the accurate throw, or think while in his feet and take off towards the chains.

If our defense steps up and shuts teams down, it does them no good if our offense is three and out....Even if we don't score points but can manage to keep the D off the field for a while, we have Seabass who is good from 40-46 out. Granted we want to score TD's but for starters, lets just hope we can move the ball and manage the clock. Eventually the TD's come as we begin to wear down the opponents defense by sustaining drives.

[Limee]

On O, I pound the rock like my life depended on it. Once I get the DL tired and the rest of the D is sneaking up to help, I go over the top.

You obviously didn't get the Dilfer memo that said that doesn't work and hasn't worked for years. :p
MLB - Morrison - see howard. He took a step back last year.
This is the thing that makes it difficult to judge how much better we will be, it is almost certain that at least one player will step back and have a poor year and plenty of young players will have a poor performance or two. I still don't have complete confidence in hardly any of our players. That's not to say that I don't think we have talent or that they will not develop into reliable players, but you can certainly argue that there are a whole lot of questions at most positions. Russell is obviously a huge key for this team and if he doesn't take a step forward then it is going to make it extremely difficult for the team as a whole to progress as much as we are hoping for. He needs help from his offensive line and we have more talent than we did last year although they played well to close out the season. If we can start off like we finished and improve from there it will make Russell's job that much easier. At RB was McFadden slowed by his injury and if so how much and can he stay healthy this year, can Bush produce on a consistent basis. We know what we will get from Fargas in those games he is healthy. How much of Miller's time will need to be spent blocking, were the couple of drops just an abberation. Overall I think we should be very solid at TE. At WR we have speed and youth which is good, but becoming a consistent WR in the NFL usually takes some time. The competition should help to bring the best out of each of them, but again I doubt we see consistency especially early on. I would feel better if the veteran on the squad was someone other than Walker.

The thought that the defense will rely on the offense is certainly valid. Our defense is certainly more effective against a team that needs to score points than one that can just pound the ball and milk the clock. We haven't added much on the line so the best we can probably hope for is a four man rotation to at least keep fresh bodies out there. Kelly could be better another year removed from his injury. It is possible Marshall could get more out of Sands, but Warren has had enough teams and coaches that I don't expect anymore than the occasional glimpse. We really need Joseph/Boschetti or AN Other to provide us with something. We have lots of youth at DE along with a fading Burgess who could have a strong year with his contract up. We have more competition again at LB which should help, but they need to do a better job individually and collectively against the run. Safety is more youth and question marks and cornerback is ok as long as we don't get injuries. It would be nice if Routt or Bowie could have a breakout.

The special teams have lost Schneider who gave us the best special teams overall that I can remember. We certainly have talent and again competition for places with some of the players we have brought in. Can we get the same or near enough production to last year is still very much a question mark in my mind, but we should be one of the better teams on special teams.

I think we will probably have a more successful season and although we will have periods of inconsistency I think we will also have times when we just might surprise a few people. I think the attitude of the team will be very important and it seems like we are making strides in the right direction on that front. I am certainly looking forward to this season more than I have in recent years.

[poptart]

When looking objectively at our defensive personnel, it's hard to feel very good.

We were 31st in the league v. the run last year and we lost our 2nd best tackler -- G. Wilson.
We have very little experience at safety and that bothers me ... a lot.

We've done NOTHING that I can see to improve our run defense.
Well ... we drafted M. Mitchell.
I have a lot of hope for the kid, but even if he's a playah, he has to go through plenty of rookie growing pains.

How is C. Johnson going to hold up as a 16 game corner for us?

There are question marks nearly everywhere on defense and we have almost no depth, either.


To win, we need a ball control offense that will keep the defense off the field.

Our QB passed at a 53% clip last year. D'OH!!!


As I see it, the only way we can be a winning team this year is by running the shit out of the ball.

We HAVE to make the run game work and we HAVE to play very good special teams again.

Even if the pieces we want to fall in place on offense DO fall in place, it's gonna be a work in progress.


As noted, we need out "kids" to REALLY step up and play well for us to have any chance in our division.

Stranger things have happened.

[Madturk]

I'd be ecstatic if we can get our defensive unit to middle of the pack level but frankly, like most here, I have serious reservations. Unless Marshall and Board can perform some magic, I think teams will still be able to run on us at will as we've done nothing to address the interior of the DL.

[NIPS]

Fuck fellas - I'm whipping out the car flags after this season if we go .500

I just wanna stay on games and see this team do 2 things

1) Dont blow leads and keep stepping on throats and..

2) coming from behind and winning

Just make plays baby!!

- Nips 2009 Motto -

Everyone make a play

[Stanny]

Our offense only completed 28% of our 3rd down opportunities. Our opponents completed 44% of their 3rd down opportunities. You then take into consideration that on offense we held the ball on average for 28 minutes per game while our opponents would hold the ball on average for 32 minutes. We on offense average 4.3 yards per carry and our pass attempts average 6.7 yards. Both of those numbers convert to first downs, the problem is we as an offense couldn't do it on a consistent basis and or defense was on the field on average another 4 minutes longer than our opponents.

You do that over 16 weeks; time and time again what do you do if you're on defense? You would think your typical NFL player is going to attempt to make a play and then you have some of your divas who just plain give up. This recipe of tired players and undisciplined play becomes a disaster.

Our offensive line did a decent job with run blocking which lead us to 10th in the league; however some of that was by default because our passing protection was not too stellar. It was much more improved as Russell was sacked on average 2 times per game. A nice stat about Russell was although his pass attempts were only 6.7 yards per attempt, when he took off with the ball he averaged 7.5 yards per rush.

In my earlier post I had noted, if we can get 3 yards per rush attempt and go into a 3rd and 4, Russell needs convert. First option should be read the defense, make the smart decision and complete the pass. If the receiver is not open, do not force the ball and take off to move the chains. He was tentative last year in doing such and we all saw him force the ball. He seemed to settle down towards the end of the year which demonstrated progress in my eyes. He threw less across his body and off of his back foot which drove me nuts earlier on.

So face it fellas, we have the same personnel for the most part on Defense. Our offense has been upgraded and they need to gel in order to help our defense out. Our new DC needs to install discipline and gap control. Dline can really help out our speed backers if they do such and Mitchell could perhaps be a difference maker if they let him play the "rover" and he becomes our Ed Reed who hits like Lott.