Raiders - Lions Predictions

[SoCalRaider]

If McGown starts:

Lions - 17
Raiders - 2


If DC starts:

Raiders - 31
Lions - 16


Why the Lions will beat Oakland on Sunday
http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/five_and_a_half_reasons_the_li.html

As though the first Sunday of the NFL season weren't exciting enough, league schedulers this year were even able to make the most of a couple of sad-sack cases that may not get much attention at all in 2007: namely, by matching the Detroit Lions (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/five_and_a_half_reasons_the_li.html#) and the Oakland Raiders for Week 1.

It's a perfect time for last year's worst and second-worst teams to meet; one of these teams will walk away with a sense of optimism (and, let's face it, a winning record) that neither has experienced for quite some time. Lots of intriguing questions beyond "Whom are they going to take with their high-round draft pick?" confront these teams, and lots of answers are to be had come Monday morning.

Who wins the Low Bowl, then? OK, I'll say Detroit.

Why? The following reasons.

The Detroit offense will surprise. Not that Mike Martz's unit is one-fifth as hype-worthy as a media's worth of bandwagon would have you believe, but Calvin Johnson (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/five_and_a_half_reasons_the_li.html#) should be able to put the shock and awe into opponents for his rookie season. Mike Furrey, he of the 97 catches last season, won't surprise anyone, but C.J. figures to have that unknown-quantity factor on his side along with oodles of sheer natural ability.

Almost as good an acquisition as Johnson may well turn out to be Edwin Mulitalo at left guard. If left alone long enough to throw - Detroit allowed 63 sacks last season, second only to Oakland - this offense could actually score points instead of mythically "leaving them on the field," as Kitna and smilin' Roy Williams are wont to declare.

Josh McCown. You're kidding, right (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/reports_say_mccown_marinelli_s.html)? Seriously, Lane Kiffin's gonna start this guy (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/raiders_qb_mccown_to_start_ope.html)? A career backup with a 72.12 career QB rating? OK, Daunte Culpepper (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/five_and_a_half_reasons_the_li.html#) can't hold onto the football off the snap, but career backup McCown has thrown more than one pick per TD (29 interceptions versus 25 touchdowns lifetime). McCown? Has Kiffin forgotten that this guy didn't call a play under center for the Lions last season? Was he not watching when McCown had a worse preseason than Culpepper? Did Lane flip a coin here or what? Worst. Opening-day starting QB choice. Ever. (OK, other than maybe Chris Weinke.)

The Raider O-line. Just as the 2006 Raiders were all about the (warning: serious understatement follows) lousy line, so the start of the 2007 season will as well. And wow, is it thin. Blocking machine TE Zach Miller (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/five_and_a_half_reasons_the_li.html#) was a nice addition for the strong side, but there's still a lot of question marks here. Is Cornell Green (eight career starts in seven seasons) really the starter at right tackle? And how much does Jeremy Newberry, the center, have to do with fumbled snaps?

Here's my theory: When forced to choose between a guy who is questionably mobile (Culpepper) and a guy who can take 56 sacks in 22 games (McCown, specifically with the Arizona Cardinals (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/five_and_a_half_reasons_the_li.html#) of 2003 and '04), Kiffin went with the tackling dummy just in case the whole Green thing doesn't work out. Though the buzz has been good based on preseason play (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/08/raiders-culpepper-line200807.html), we simply don't know if Oakland will have a line this year (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/08/oakland_line_establishes_a_sac.html). And if the Lions can exploit these guys with their steady-pressure Cover 2 defense, it's going to be another long season in Oakland.

Coaching. It's not that Rod Marinelli will necessarily out-coach Kiffin in the latter's first game as head coach: After all, the Lions' three wins last season came not from cerebral genius but rather merely outlasting the mediocre Buffalo Bills, the imploding Atlanta Falcons (http://www.realfootball365.com/nfl/articles/2007/09/five_and_a_half_reasons_the_li.html#) and the self-destructing Dallas Cowboys. Marinelli is conservative to a fault for a team that really needs to air it out and the frankly predictable play-calling is just short of seriously disturbing. (And anyone who watched the Thanksgiving Day game against the Miami Dolphins last year knows the veracity of this one...)

However, if this one is close and comes down to play-calling, you have to go with the guy who's never headed up a football team on any level against the guy who had never headed up a football team on any level last year. We may end up praising Marinelli after this one, and that's a bit of a scary prospect.

Finally, the half-reason why the Detroit Lions will win on Sunday ... because somebody has to.

P.S.

Fire Millen.

[poptart]

I also prefer Culpepper, but might be able to understand Kiffin's thinking.
Let's give Daunte just a little bit more time to settle in.

Unfortunately, McCown will likely turn the ball over at least once.
He's too much of a loose cannon for my liking.
He's got some Gannon-like skillz, yes, but what he has not shown is Gannon's discipline in taking care of the rock.
And that trait is critically important.

At any rate, the Raider defense is the best unit on the field on Sunday, and they'll make that clear.

The Lion defense, btw, is piss poor.


Raiders 27
Kittens 12

[R4Life]

Raiders 24
Lions 17



Five reasons the Raiders will win on Sunday

Posted by: Anthony Carroll on September 7, 2007 12:15 AM

Two desperate teams will enter McAfee Coliseum in Oakland on Sunday with one common goal: to win.

The Detroit Lions, who finished with just three victories in 2006, will take on the Oakland Raiders, a two-win franchise from last season. Both teams earned the title of being the worst in their conference last year, combining for 27 hard-to-watch losses.

Luckily, for at least one of the teams, somebody will walk off the field this Sunday with a win and a 1-0 record.

Here are five reasons why the Raiders will be that team:

5. Stuart Schweigert

I'm serious. Well, not completely. The 26-year-old free safety, though, does have a special interest in this game. A native of Saginaw, Mich., Schweigert saw plenty of the Lions growing up in the same state.

"This game is special to me because I am from Michigan," Schweigert said a week ago. "[I'd] love nothing more to send them back home with a loss on their record."

After recording no interceptions in 2006, I'm feeling a big one in this game. Remember that. (Unless he doesn't get one.)

4. The confusing quarterback quandary

No matter what Lions head coach Rod Marinelli says, not knowing whom Oakland's starting quarterback will be on Sunday is a disadvantage to his team. Both Marinelli and Detroit's defense had to deal with ESPN reporting Culpepper as the starter, Adam Schefter reporting Josh McCown as the top man and head coach Lane Kiffin saying, "Ugh...I don't know." Whomever it might be, the Lions won't know until it's too late to game plan around that person.

3. Short corners...tall wide receivers

Compared to Oakland's wideouts, Detroit's cast of cornerbacks doesn't look all too impressive. The team's top two corners, Fernando Bryant and Stanley Wilson, both list at a modest 5-foot-11, and neither has recorded an interception in their five combined years with the Lions. On paper, the Raiders have the advantage, hoarding athletic receivers Jerry Porter (6-2), Ronald Curry (6-2) and Mike Williams (6-5). The Lion secondary will find it hard to win one-on-one battles.

2. Tall, fast wide receivers...equally tall, fast corners

On the flip side, Oakland matches up with quarterback Jon Kitna's main targets very well. The 6-3, 212-pound Roy Williams will line up alongside first-round rookie Calvin Johnson, who will be manned up against the 6-2, 210-pound Nnamdi Asomugha and the smaller Fabian Washington. Though Washington lists at 5-11, he makes up for any height disadvantages with quickness and an above-average vertical jump.

Combined, the duo of starting corners recorded 90 tackles, 12 interceptions and 19 passes defensed last season. With '06 first-rounder Michael Huff and Schweigert back at the safety spots, it's hard to imagine even the big-play Lions wideouts getting behind Oakland's secondary.

1. Defense wins championships...and games against Detroit

You won't hear it much from the mouths of most NFL analysts, but the Raider 'D' is one of the best in the league. Along with a top-ranked secondary, the unit is strong across the board, from the pass rush, to the linebackers to the coordinator. The Rob Ryan-led unit features one of the fastest linebacking corps in the league, made up of OLBs Thomas Howard and Sam Williams and middle man Kirk Morrison.

Throw in a strong pass rush from Derrick Burgess, Tommy Kelly and Warren Sapp, and the Oakland 'D' should have no problem flustering Kitna.

We all know what happens when Kitna is flustered.

[R4Life]

From Peter King


Sunday 9/09, 4:15pm ET
Preview
Detroit Lions (3-13) at Oakland Raiders (2-14)

It's still absolutely, positive insane that third-round rookie defensive end Quentin Moses was cut by the Raiders. I can't get it out of my head. Since when does ANY team cut a first-day draft choice, never mind a team picking at the top of a round in need of quality youth?
Detroit Lions 27, Oakland Raiders 20

Why isn't he (or anyone else) Banging so hard on the Cardinals for Buster Davis being cut when he was picked four spots after Moses. Buncha haters.

[R4Life]

Last 6 years - Lions are 6-42 on the road.
Last 2 years - Lions CB's (Bryant, Wilson, Fisher and Smith) have 0 INT's.

Raiders 24
Lions 17

[CrossBones]

Why isn't he (or anyone else) Banging so hard on the Cardinals for Buster Davis being cut when he was picked four spots after Moses. Buncha haters.Well exactly. The Cardinals haven't exactly been light up the NFL for the last 30 years! ;)

The media can go fuck themselves.

[R4Life]

In the 2007 preseason in the first half of games the following is true:

The Lions have been outscored 50 - 42

The Raiders have outscored opponents 49 - 38

[Stanny]

Raiders 26
Lions 16

[Freakshow]

Raiders: 23
Lions: 13

Reasoning - Oakland at home, far superrior defense, Kiffin's first taste and the team loves him.

[CrossBones]

Raiders 16
Lions 14

Reasoning: Because we still can't score and I hope our defense can hold the Lions to 14 points. I'm hoping the defense or ST can put up a touchdown to get us over the hump. Still I don't see this as being easy by any means.

[BigTron]

I expect the secondary match-ups to shake out like this:

Aso vs Roy Williams
Fabian vs the #2 (Mike Furrey)
Michael Huff vs CJ playing slot

[Madturk]

I think if we can run the ball and control the clock like we have in pre-season , we should take this game. I think our plays are well designed to exploit the soft Tampa 2 that they play. If McCown is forced to make plays on the run, I'm not so optimistic. Their LBr's are very active.

Defensively, I hope Ryan brings the house and we take Kitna out of his game early because their receivers pose match up problems for our secondary. If Kitna gets any time to get into a rhythmn, I don't think we can match them score for score. Kitna's prone to mistakes and hopefully we get an early T.O. and let the defense unload on his ass.

Raiders 20
Lions 10

[hawaiianboy]

If McCown starts: Raiders 31 Detroit 17 Kitna gets pimp slapped :boxing:

If Pepper starts: Raiders 31 Detroit 17 Kitna gets pimp slapped:boxing:

Until the team shows me different, everything is blue skies and blow jobs at this time of year...




Unfortunately, McCown will likely turn the ball over at least once.
He's too much of a loose cannon for my liking.
He's got some Gannon-like skillz, yes, but what he has not shown is Gannon's discipline in taking care of the rock.
And that trait is critically important.


To be fair, Gannon didn't really develop that discipline of taking care of the ball until he had been in Gru's offense for a little bit... Prior to that he was your basic 1:1 TD/INT guy... In fact I think McCown looks better than Gannon did during his first preseason here... Unless I'm remembering wrong, a lot of people, including myself, were openly wondering whether Bobby Hoying wasn't the better choice to start that year because he looked better than Gannon did during that first preseason...

The one thing that bothers me about McCown is that some of his throws to the sideline hang up too long... That's the kind of mistake that tends to have six going the other way...

[R4Life]

Defensive validation awaits
Posted by Jerry McDonald - NFL Writer on Friday at 1:42 pm

We'll know soon enough if the Raiders' aspirations to have a championship-caliber defense in 2007 are realistic.

As much as 2006 is thankfully in the rear-view mirror, we'll also learn if their top-ranked pass defense and No. 3 overall standing of a year ago was something to be proud of or merely a byproduct of circumstance.

We already know what Warren Sapp thinks.

"Stats are for losers," Sapp said. "You can make a stat say anything you want it to say. The only stat that matters is if you got the `W.' Do you want to go home and watch SportsCenter that night? Because it's no fun watching when your game comes on and you've got an `L,' I can tell you that."

The Raiders piled 14 of those "L's," worst in the Al Davis era, despite giving up 284.4 yards per game in total offense, third in the NFL, and 150.8 yards per game passing, which ranked first.

Sapp aside, some Raiders defenders looked with pride at those numbers, in particular safety Stuart Schweigert and middle linebacker Kirk Morrison.

Yet it's hard to know exactly how good the Raiders were defensively last season. They were under a great deal of stress in terms of being on the field because their offense couldn't score.

By the same token, their stats were skewed because opponents, knowing the Raiders couldn't score, simply took the air out of the ball. In Week 1, Marty Schottenheimer may as well have had Philip Rivers take a knee every play after halftime.

In the offseason, I was talking to a prominent NFL offensive coordinator about the Raiders defense and he said he wasn't sure how good the Raiders were.

"I think Rob Ryan's doing a great job," he said, "but it seems to me like every time the other team really needed to score, they scored."

The beauty of Sunday is the Detroit Lions will go right at what is perceived as Oakland's biggest strength.

However you read the stats, the Raiders were a good team in pass coverage last season, perhaps the best they've had since they returned to Oakland in 1995.

The Raiders have had a cornerback tandem to rival Nnamdi Asomugha and Fabian Washington before (Eric Allen and Charles Woodson in 1998 come to mind), but never have they had two linebackers in pass coverage at the same time as good as Morrison and Thomas Howard.

Michael Huff needs to make more plays, but did not allow tight ends to roam free through the Oakland secondary as they had in past years.

The first few series will be crucial, because Detroit will be running a high-tech offense at a speed the Raiders simply can't duplicate in practice, and the Lions thrive on momentum. Once Jon Kitna gets rolling with a crew of wide receivers that includes Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and No. 2 overall pick Calvin Johnson, they can be tough to stop.

After Asomugha and Washington, there are depth issues. Stanford Routt missed much of training camp with a knee injury, but will be the nickel back. Chris Carr will probably be next up when the Lions bring in Shaun McDonald and go to four wideouts.

Oakland also has the flexibility of using Huff in some situations against a wide receiver.

"As a team, we’ve got to slow that offense down, as corners, we’re in for a tall task," Washington said. "They got their No. 1 pick Calvin Johnson, they’re going to use that new toy they got. We think we know a couple things we can do. It’s going to be interesting."

In a sense, it's a perfect opener because it's at home and the opponent will attack the Raiders precisely the way they want to be attacked. Throwing off Kitna's timing will be crucial, and they'll need a big play or two to keep momentum going their way.

The pessimistic view is more difficult to digest. If the Lions go out and tear up the Raiders similar to the way the Bengals did last year in Cincinnati, it would be a tough early blow for a unit which hopes to be among the NFL's elite.

Kiffin, of course, won't look at it that way.

"It’s one of the 16 games. It’s not going to make or break us. We’re not going to win this game and then all of a sudden think we’ve got this thing figured out and if we lost this game we’re not going to think our season’s over," Kiffin said. "It’s another game. It just happens to be the game we’re playing this week."

Friday's news and notes:

– Raiders went through a 45-minute practice which Kiffin described as crisp.

– CB Duane Starks (groin) did not practice and is questionable. Don't look for him to be active.

– No sign of director of football development Mark Jackson, who is usually at practice but is believed to be nearing a conclusion to working out a contract with quarterback JaMarcus Russell.

"I know it's your guys' job to ask but understand that it's completely our focus right now from my side of things right now to get this team ready to play in the opening game," Kiffin said regarding Russell's status. "It's not on JaMarcus right now. That's why we have other people to do that."

[BigTron]

In a sense, it's a perfect opener because it's at home and the opponent will attack the Raiders precisely the way they want to be attacked.

Chicka chikca Yeeeeaaaaahhhhhhh

[Limee]

Raiders 77 Lions 0.

Well somebody had to say it since stick man step has been on the slim fast diet and has completely disappeared.

[Raidermania12]

To be fair, Gannon didn't really develop that discipline of taking care of the ball until he had been in Gru's offense for a little bit... Prior to that he was your basic 1:1 TD/INT guy... In fact I think McCown looks better than Gannon did during his first preseason here... Unless I'm remembering wrong, a lot of people, including myself, were openly wondering whether Bobby Hoying wasn't the better choice to start that year because he looked better than Gannon did during that first preseason...
Wow I can't remember that sentiment. Maybe I was around a different crowd. But the doubt i remember had more to do with why we dropped George for a guy who was a career back up. Apply that to McCown if you want, but again the football minds dont equate(i've already said he's nearly equal to gannon physically, but thats not really a good thing technically). And unless McCown gets struck with thought lightning, i think that difference will remain to haunt his scenario.

[london raider 2]

Raiders 16
Lions 10

Raiders D scores td

[Abelardo]

Raiders 17
Lions 16

[hawaiianboy]

But the doubt i remember had more to do with why we dropped George for a guy who was a career back up. Apply that to McCown if you want, but again the football minds dont equate(i've already said he's nearly equal to gannon physically, but thats not really a good thing technically).

So you believed him to be a career backup, yet knew he had a superior football mind?... Ohhh righty then...

[raiderfreak7]

Only another 2 hours. Can't wait. Hopefully my Sopcast will work alright.