Drafting a first round QB is risky?

[007]

Stolen from another board, that I won't link, cuz that's not cool.

the guy makes some interesting points, and I wanted to show all the people who are thinking we can't go in that direction in April:



Drafting a QB is risky? Fact or Fiction???

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well let's look at the last QB's drafted in round 1 since 2000.

Eli Manning-playoffs
Rivers-playoffs
Roethlisberger-Super Bowl
Smith-looking like a playoff team next year
Campbell-Starter
J.P. Losman-starter
Young-having a sensational rookie year
Leinart-having a very solid rookie year
Cutler-starter
Aaron Rodgers-jury is still out
Harrington-flopped with Detroit but starting for Miami during their winning streak
Rex Grossman-starter for Chicago-been to the playoffs
Patrick Ramsey-drafted #32 and looks like a career backup.
Byron Leftwich-will probably start for another team next year-been to the playoffs
David Carr-a flop in my opinion but still starting --->I think he is in a bad situation. A solid pro Nontheless.
Carson Palmer-All-Pro
Kyle Bollar-probably career backip
Chad Pennington-starter-been to the playoffs

There have been 18 QB's draft in round 1 in the last 7 years. Not 1 is out of the league. Only 1 has never been a starter(Rodgers), 4 aren't currently starting for their teams and of those 4 only Ramsey who was drafted at #32 looks to be a total career backup. Leftwich, Bollar and Rodgers will all probably get another shot at starting.
It is a myth that the QB position is a high hit or miss position. Since 2000, that's 7 years, only 1 QB out of 18 has no chance any longer to be a starter. That's about a 5% chance of total failure and even that guy is still a backup in the league.
If you discount the QB's who were drafted within 2 years and haven't really had the chance to get to the playoffs, 7 or 8 have or will reach the playoffs by this year out of 12. That's a 73% chance of making the playoffs.
Pro GM's who draft QB's aren't stupid, they've done their homework.
Just because there have been a few high profile flops, people exaggerate the consequences of drafting a QB.
I'd bet that of all the positions drafted since 2000, QB's have had less total flops that any other position although I haven't checked it out.



Also consider that guys like Harrington and Ramsey, Campbell and Couch all busted (Or look like busting) for teams that have notoriously weak GM's or scouting departments...

Something to consider, IMO.

A quick count makes it look like 25% of the first rounders (50% of the top ten picks) end up playoff and or Pro Bowl bound
50% look servicable as starters in the NFL and possibly even top tier guys.
25% look like backups or busts.

Worth the risk from where I sit.

[hawaiianboy]

Interesting... I'm certainly not adverse to taking Quinn...

You would probably have a similar ratio with 1st round backs as well.... I would imagine the same criteria could be used as a reason not to take a WR because it seems like a bunch of them have either sucked or their teams are mired in mediocrity...

[CrossBones]

Problem is Detroit will most surely take Quinn which will leave Johnson for us. He's not going to help this team at all. What a fucking mess.

[Limee]

Yes I saw that post and thought it was interesting. I am not sure if making the playoffs is a good judge of success for 1st round QB as there are many other factors to take into account. There doesn't look like too many terrible choices on that list and I certainly wouldn't grumble if we took Quinn, but I think he is headed to Detroit.
I was surprised last year with Leinart sitting there that we didn't take him. This offense needs an identity, belief and leadership from somewhere. If Quinn can be the person to supply it then so be it.
The guys busting for teams with weak scouting departments is not so reassuring.

[007]

Problem is Detroit will most surely take Quinn which will leave Johnson for us. He's not going to help this team at all. What a fucking mess.

Detroit will be better for it.

A nice crop of Wide receivers and Kevin Jones will make life a lot easier for Brady.

Kinda like Matt Leinart starting off his career with 3 top tier wide receivers a Pro bowl running back and a 6-7 rookie tight end.

[CrossBones]

But how is taking Calvin Johnson going to make the Raiders any better? I hate this idea.

[hawaiianboy]

Detroit will be better for it.


There's the rub... even if Al falls in love with BQ, it's hard to imagine the Lions will pass on him... I like Quinn, but I don't think he's as polished as Leinart was coming out...

Right now the HB draft board would look something like this:

1: Adrian Peterson
2: Brady Quinn
3: Marshawn Lynch
4: Alan Branch
5: Calvin Johnson

If there was a halfway decent free agent QB to pin some hope on, I'd probably have Quinn at 4 or 5...

QB jihads will break your heart man... I really thought drafting Roethlisberger while Gannon was still around would have been an intelligent thing to do... As it stands, we've managed to expose Andrew Walter to the collective brain matter of Kerry Collins and Giggles Brooks... If we invest the kind of money a #2 overall pick gets into Quinn, we damn well better bring in a QB guru either as QB coach or OC...

[Limee]

I think we should be looking to get a QB guru in even if we don't draft Quinn.

[Ghost To The Post]

If we do pick up Quinn or Jamarcus Russell (more & more likely with every Tennessee win.) I would like the Raiders to bring in Ken Anderson (Jax) or Chris Palmer (Dallas). HB's mancrush Zampese would be great as well.

The next Raider OC needs a strong personality to take this offense and give it an identity. Shell is probably going to remain the head coach, so it is imperitive that his influence is buffered from the players by a well respected OC.

Let Ryan run the defense and the new OC handle the offense. Special teams need improving, so Art can focus there and on matters of internal security.

[Madturk]

Any decent OC we bring in will command a lot more dough than what Shell is probably making. To top it off, Shell will have input on who he wants to bring in. Top flight OC's are making 1.5-2 mill a year. If there's a time to pay for an OC, it's this offseason.

It sucks that Gannon is such a good color guy. Wouldn't mind him coming in and coaching the qb's and developing into an OC eventually.

[Banter]

18 1st rounders in 7 years. So if Russell and Brohm declare the draft would have Quinn, Russell, Brohm, Smith and Stanton in it. Some of those guys will be there in the 2nd round cause 5 QBs in the 1st round doesn't happen. Peterson/Smith or Calvin/Stanton pairing works for me. 2008 is loaded with runners. So maybe we're better off in the long-run getting the WR/QB duo up and running and then augmenting them a year latter with the the runner.

[CrossBones]

Well I'd love to see us get Quinn and then assuming we're still bad which is likely we could get the RB from Arkansas (McFadden) next year! :D

If not we have to take the RB Peterson or Lynch this year. This is more likely unless Detroit losses a game they are no doubt going to take Quinn#1.

[NIPS]

Man I'd rather draft Troy Smith even with his Bostonian height than to take Quinn, And I'm opposed to even drafting a QB in rd 2

I'm not giving up on Walter.

My nuts your vice says Walter is having a great year in San Diego or Indianolpis, Seattle and a host of other teams

Give the kid a running back thats gonna make defenders account for him and an OL and at least an OC with half a brain and you'd see results

Lets be honest here, nobody respects our runing game or OL, thats why they blitz us 95 % of the time

Give Walter a game plan, find his strengths and work around "him" Quit trying to force him into a system that just sucks monkey balls

A RB that has mad speed outside will take away a LB, a TE with good speed and hands and a half decent OL with some plays that will confuse defensises and we'd move the ball downfield

Go get a couple OL FA's, trade Moss and Porter, trade down and lets load up on picks and keep Walter and Brooks for now

Maybe see about bringing in a vet QB that may hit the market

Until we fix this OL, running game and TE situation

Brady Quin aint doing dick, he's gonna cost high bucks, he migght hold out and the kids career will be over before it even began in the NFL

[CrossBones]

First Nips, I think it's a moot point about Quinn. Unless the sky falls Quinn will be a Lion.

Now the problem is Johnson. I like your plan better. Peterson or Lynch.

I'm just sayin' if Quinn is there we take him and get McFadden next year and we're golden.

Troy Smith from everything I have read isn't going to last until round two..no biggie IMO.

As for Walter I'm gonna disagree with 'ya there. Don't like the guy. He hasn't done a single thing or made a single play I remember. No matter how bad our system and OL is you'd think the kid could make one play in 5-6 games. That's what separates the good players from the bad -- play makers no matter the situation. He's a stiff in my book.

[007]

As for Walter I'm gonna disagree with 'ya there. Don't like the guy. He hasn't done a single thing or made a single play I remember. No matter how bad our system and OL is you'd think the kid could make one play in 5-6 games. That's what separates the good players from the bad -- play makers no matter the situation. He's a stiff in my book.

Agreed.

Alex Smith has made some plays this year and last that make you go: Huh, he got the ball in there?

Rivers has made some deep outs look like absolute perfection. He is almost always in sync with Gates and Parker...

Leinart...Well, just watch him audible at the line, or throw a quick slant right on the money to Fitz and Boldin.

Vince: Well...I was just wrong there. Tennessee is not a .500 team, and It's not just Pac-Man winning those games.

Even Losman might rival the top guys in the league, as far as the deep ball is concerned. Personally, I think he's the most accurate long passer in the game.

We don't have that at the QB spot. I think it's long overdue that we look at the draft for a young QB, instead of bringing in Damon Huard or Tim Rattay for one or two years.

Get some lineman via free agency and we could be in business. Draft a Mike Bush, Tyrone Moss, Tony Hunt or Kenny Irons in rounds two or three, and we could be rolling.

Plenty of second round and later round RB's are playing very well: Gore, Julius Jones, Tatum Bell, LaDell Betts, MJD, Marion Barber, Michael Turner, Willie Parker, Jerious Norwood.

Not that I wouldnt want Peterson, because I think he is most likely to be the Raiders pick, but Its not like we HAVE to go round one for RB or we don't find our future LT. Heck, Westbrook, Barber, Gore and Rudi J were'nt top five picks.

Plenty of ways to skin a cat, IMO.

[hawaiianboy]

Judging by the forums I peruse, I think a lot of people hold the fact that Quinn plays for the bastard Notre Dame Irish Catholics against him....


Talentwise, I think the clear cut best player in this draft will end up being Adrian Peterson but I can certainly see the arguments for Brady Quinn... Like Natty pointed out with Leinart last year, it appears that Quinn has that 'it' factor that teamates feed off and follow...


One thing I will say is that if this draft had been held after Adrian Peterson's freshman year, AP may have been right there with the alltime highest rated prospects... Not since Hershell Walker can I remember a freshman looking like a man among boys while playing in a major conference.... The shine has come off a bit because of a couple of freak injuries, but we're talking about a Bo/Elway/Hershell type of freak skill set IMO...


I gotta say, I've love it if we could somehow manage to draft AP, acquire a "Steve McNair" type vet while developing Kevin Kolb as a draft pick... people will dismiss Kolb as being a product of the system as they always seem to do when it comes to QB's from a run and shoot/spread type offense, but I love what I've seen from him...

[Madturk]

One thing I will say is that if this draft had been held after Adrian Peterson's freshman year, AP may have been right there with the alltime highest rated prospects... Not since Hershell Walker can I remember a freshman looking like a man among boys while playing in a major conference.... The shine has come off a bit because of a couple of freak injuries, but we're talking about a Bo/Elway/Hershell type of freak skill set IMO...



Why couldn't have Peterson come out before we signed LJ, it would have been a no-brainer? All Al has to do is look at the AFC West and see the balance of running power tipped so heavily in SD and KC's favor.

[BigTron]

Kevin Jones might not be ready for next season. His injury was really bad and the doctor seemed worried about his immediate future in the NFL. With that said if AP seperates himself as the "Reggie Bush" of this years draft. Will the Lions pass like the texans did and select Quinn. They should... but this IS the team that selected three 1st round Wrs in a row. 2 busts and Roy Williams. Hell i can draft top 10 three years in a row and get 1/3 picks right? If Quinn is there will we still take CJ. I think Al will want Joe Thomas, CJ or AP. I also dont think you put any young QB behind our line and expect anything.

[R4Life]

Not until at least the second day.
I hate to bring it up, but Al likes Walter. He's going to be the starter next year. Remember the "highest qb on our draft board" comment from Shell?
Personally, I think it's good. We need more help at other postioins before we invest in someone that doesn't help immediately. Let Brooks back-up Walter for a reduced price tag and look for Walter to be given the reigns in 2007.

[007]

Judging by the forums I peruse, I think a lot of people hold the fact that Quinn plays for the bastard Notre Dame Irish Catholics against him....


Talentwise, I think the clear cut best player in this draft will end up being Adrian Peterson but I can certainly see the arguments for Brady Quinn... Like Natty pointed out with Leinart last year, it appears that Quinn has that 'it' factor that teamates feed off and follow...


One thing I will say is that if this draft had been held after Adrian Peterson's freshman year, AP may have been right there with the alltime highest rated prospects... Not since Hershell Walker can I remember a freshman looking like a man among boys while playing in a major conference.... The shine has come off a bit because of a couple of freak injuries, but we're talking about a Bo/Elway/Hershell type of freak skill set IMO...


I gotta say, I've love it if we could somehow manage to draft AP, acquire a "Steve McNair" type vet while developing Kevin Kolb as a draft pick... people will dismiss Kolb as being a product of the system as they always seem to do when it comes to QB's from a run and shoot/spread type offense, but I love what I've seen from him...

I heard a rumor that your boy Colt Brennan might be heading to the draft...

Maybe a second round flier on him? (I don't see him jumping Brohm/Quinn/Russell and he'll be around Troy Smith if he comes out)

[007]

Kevin Jones might not be ready for next season. His injury was really bad and the doctor seemed worried about his immediate future in the NFL. With that said if AP seperates himself as the "Reggie Bush" of this years draft. Will the Lions pass like the texans did and select Quinn. They should... but this IS the team that selected three 1st round Wrs in a row. 2 busts and Roy Williams. Hell i can draft top 10 three years in a row and get 1/3 picks right? If Quinn is there will we still take CJ. I think Al will want Joe Thomas, CJ or AP. I also dont think you put any young QB behind our line and expect anything.

That KJ injury really worries me as far as the draft goes...

I agree with your draft board to (As far as Al Davis goes)

His looks like this (I'm guessing)

1)AP
2)Joe Thomas
3)CJ
4)Gaines Adams
5)Alan Branch
6)Brady Quinn

Mine:
1) Quinn (Let's face it, are we really sold on Andrew Walter?)
2) AP (He's Bo Jackson and Herschel Walker. I just think Brady Quinn might be John Elway)
3) Calvin Johnson (He is a better prospect than Roy Williams, Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, IMO)
4) Gaines Adams
5) Branch
6) Joe Thomas (He should be higher, but I worry now...I LOVED Gallery as a prospect.)

[hawaiianboy]

I heard a rumor that your boy Colt Brennan might be heading to the draft...


Nah... he's going to be evaluated, but he's already committed to returning... From what I understand, that Jerry Jones guy that puts out the Drugstore List for the NFL, has informed him that he has him ranked in his preliminary top 20 for next year...

IMO, he needs another year to further distance himself from that mess he got in while attending Colorodo and to develop a bit more...

[007]

Nah... he's going to be evaluated, but he's already committed to returning... From what I understand, that Jerry Jones guy that puts out the Drugstore List for the NFL, has informed him that he has him ranked in his preliminary top 20 for next year...

IMO, he needs another year to further distance himself from that mess he got in while attending Colorodo and to develop a bit more...

Cool. I'll keep my eye out in '07.

Not that we will draft a QB anyways.

[Limee]

Like Natty pointed out with Leinart last year, it appears that Quinn has that 'it' factor that teamates feed off and follow...
This is my concern with Walter that he doesn't have it. There didn't seem to be any sort of positive response when he came into the game. It could be that things are so messed up on offense that nothing is going to work this season. It could also be that he needs time to feel comfortable with his own game before he can provide leadership.

Sorry to keep banging on about it, but the no1 priority this offseason has to be to find leadership and direction for this offense or we are going to be in the same position next year.

[Jack's sore libido]

But how is taking Calvin Johnson going to make the Raiders any better? I hate this idea.
By himself? He won't.

But follow up CJ with Troy Smith or Michael Bush, and use all that cap room to improve the line, and the Raiders will be better. If they get an OC who knows his ass from a hole in the ground.

How is Brady Quinn going to make the Raiders any better.

Same answer.

[CrossBones]

By himself? He won't.

But follow up CJ with Troy Smith or Michael Bush, and use all that cap room to improve the line, and the Raiders will be better. If they get an OC who knows his ass from a hole in the ground.But we have no way of knowing if we will be able to get those players later in the draft.

How is Brady Quinn going to make the Raiders any better.

Same answer.But IF we could get a QB and the other pieces as you speculate then I think we'd be better off with the QB long run. We're going to have to assume for the purpose of this conversation that both the QB and WR will work out and the other players we want would be available. Assuming they would we better off with a guy who touches the ball every play and is good than a WR who gets the ball thrown his way maybe 6-8 times a game.

[BigPoppaPump]

Eli Manning-playoffs
Rivers-playoffs
Roethlisberger-Super Bowl
Smith-looking like a playoff team next year
Campbell-Starter
J.P. Losman-starter
Young-having a sensational rookie year
Leinart-having a very solid rookie year
Cutler-starter
Aaron Rodgers-jury is still out
Harrington-flopped with Detroit but starting for Miami during their winning streak
Rex Grossman-starter for Chicago-been to the playoffs
Patrick Ramsey-drafted #32 and looks like a career backup.
Byron Leftwich-will probably start for another team next year-been to the playoffs
David Carr-a flop in my opinion but still starting --->I think he is in a bad situation. A solid pro Nontheless.
Carson Palmer-All-Pro
Kyle Bollar-probably career backip
Chad Pennington-starter-been to the playoffs

Has anyone else noticed something about this list? Notice how all the bolded guys, who have enjoyed more success, have something else in common? Could it be a solid running attack?

All young QBs that have done well, have a good ground game. Joe Montana or Dan Marino would suck on this O. Does anyone really think that some of these QB's above are really that good?

I think we are idiots if Peterson or Lynch is available and we pass on them. It would really make me question the team.

[Jack's sore libido]

But we have no way of knowing if we will be able to get those players later in the draft.

Well, clearly those guys aren't the ONLY options. The point is, no matter who you take in the first round, that player can't do it alone. It's a process. You can't pick well in Round 1 and then fail at every other aspect of the draft and free agency, whether that first pick is CJ or Quinn.

But IF we could get a QB and the other pieces as you speculate then I think we'd be better off with the QB long run.

Only if the QB is a good one. Personally, I don't see what's so great about Brady Quinn. Every big game they've played, with the exception of the USC game at Notre Dame his junior year, against a pretty suspect SC defense, Brady has schit the bed.

We're going to have to assume for the purpose of this conversation that both the QB and WR will work out and the other players we want would be available.

That being the case, I take the best player available, which in my mind is Peterson or CJ.

Assuming they would we better off with a guy who touches the ball every play and is good than a WR who gets the ball thrown his way maybe 6-8 times a game.

The best receivers in the league get targeted almost 10 times a game.

[Jack's sore libido]

Eli Manning-playoffs
Rivers-playoffs
Roethlisberger-Super Bowl
Smith-looking like a playoff team next year
Campbell-Starter
J.P. Losman-starter
Young-having a sensational rookie year
Leinart-having a very solid rookie year
Cutler-starter
Aaron Rodgers-jury is still out
Harrington-flopped with Detroit but starting for Miami during their winning streak
Rex Grossman-starter for Chicago-been to the playoffs
Patrick Ramsey-drafted #32 and looks like a career backup.
Byron Leftwich-will probably start for another team next year-been to the playoffs
David Carr-a flop in my opinion but still starting --->I think he is in a bad situation. A solid pro Nontheless.
Carson Palmer-All-Pro
Kyle Bollar-probably career backip
Chad Pennington-starter-been to the playoffs

Has anyone else noticed something about this list? Notice how all the bolded guys, who have enjoyed more success, have something else in common? Could it be a solid running attack?

All young QBs that have done well, have a good ground game. Joe Montana or Dan Marino would suck on this O. Does anyone really think that some of these QB's above are really that good?

I think we are idiots if Peterson or Lynch is available and we pass on them. It would really make me question the team.

Personally, I thought that list was so laughable that it wasn't even worth a reply at the other board. If we're expected to hold up JP Losman and Rex Grossman and Joey Harrington as reasons for drafting a QB in the top 2, then what's the list for arguing in favor of taking a WR, and does it include David Terrell?

[007]

Well, clearly those guys aren't the ONLY options. The point is, no matter who you take in the first round, that player can't do it alone. It's a process. You can't pick well in Round 1 and then fail at every other aspect of the draft and free agency, whether that first pick is CJ or Quinn.


Agreed. A loooong process.


Only if the QB is a good one. Personally, I don't see what's so great about Brady Quinn. Every big game they've played, with the exception of the USC game at Notre Dame his junior year, against a pretty suspect SC defense, Brady has schit the bed.

Don't forget the guy beat Michigan as a soph and junior, GTech this year, he's had plenty of big time, big game performances...People just choose to remember him 'shitting the bed'



That being the case, I take the best player available, which in my mind is Peterson or CJ.


Agreed. Peterson is the most talented, and CJ is a close second. I think we need a QB worse though, and Quinn isnt that far behind them, ceiling-wise.


The best receivers in the league get targeted almost 10 times a game.

So say he catches 6-8 passes out of ten (The top WR's do, Moss only catches 40 percent of his) Is that top two pick worthy?

I don't know...

[CrossBones]

Right now I wonder who exactly is going to get a great WR the ball. Replacing Moss with CJ isn't an improvement IMO. The core problems are still there.

It's a tough call for sure. Lots of things have to go right. But let's just say we finally take a flyer on a QB and let's say he works out. We're set for 10-12 years barring injury. QWe're not going top be very good next year no matter who we take (probably) and so we might be in the hunt for McFadden...then we're cookin' with gas.

And having said all that I think it's moot. We'll likely be picking second, Detroit will take Quinn and I hope in that scenario we take Peterson. In a perfect world I'd rather trade down and get Lynch and another player like Branch if that was possible. But then I know that isn't going to happen either. :o

[Jack's sore libido]

Don't be so sure Detroit will take Quinn. With Jones out for 07, they might take Peterson.

But for all the past models being upheld for success, consider this one:

Chargers could have taken Vick and Anthony Thomas, but instead took LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees.

To me, a game manager type -- just someone who plays smart -- can be found at QB well after the first round. But a special RB can't be. So if it's between Peterson and Quinn, I want Peterson every time.

[s.dot88]

Chargers could have taken Vick and Anthony Thomas, but instead took LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees.


excellent point

but i think the chargers past few drafts are hard to match no matter which talent is in the pool

they have just done an excellent job of developing their talent, and building around theyre strengths

[Banter]

I'm hoping the Panthers lose out cause it sounds like they're interested in Quinn or Peterson. I guess they're tired of Delhomme's inconsistency and Foster's fragility. And DeAngelo William's isn't viewed as a workhorse back. A Peterson/DeAngelo combo looks pretty good on paper. Al could slide down 5 or 6 spots and pick the local boy Lynch and have an extra 3rd rounder this year and 1st rounder next year.

[Jack's sore libido]

It's certainly a lot easier when your OL performs. And other than Marcus McNeill, no one on that OL was a showstopper.

To me that means coaching and scouting built that.

[CrossBones]

Al could slide down 5 or 6 spots and pick the local boy Lynch and have an extra 3rd rounder this year and 1st rounder next year.Wouldn't that be cool? And it would be a first for Al in the first round. But if ever the year to do it this year would be it --- or the year we took Gallery when we could have traded down to get an extra pick and still drafted Sean Taylor. I remember a rumor about the Skins trading Samuels to us and exchanging 1st round picks. That would have netted us a pretty good LT and Taylor or even Roethlisberger. :eek:

Oh well. If we end up with Peterson I'm not gonna complain. I just wonder if we couldn't get Lynch and another good football player. That wouldn't be too bad.

[Banter]

From what I remember Al was open to trading down in 2004 so long as it still gave him the chance to draft Roy Williams. The Skins and Browns we're in play. The Skins at the time where not to happy with Chris Samuels and his reluctance to restructure his contract. But once he did they took him off the trade block and then weren't interest in moving up for Gallery. Now the Browns wanted Gallery but Al knew Roy wasn't going to be available at #7. So we ended up standing pat and drafting the guy that was on the top of our draft board. Oh well.

So I'm thinking he could be open to trading down this year as long as it gives him a chance to select somebody like Lynch. I think given our financial shape there is a lot appeal to drafting somebody like Lynch both on and off the field. And he's got that Kirk Morrison thing where he's just not a prospect but a fan of the team. Al eats that stuff up.

[hawaiianboy]

::snicker:: Bones contemplating trade down scenarios?... The Worlds off it's axis.... :D "The Raiders do not trade down!"...

Lot's of factors... If Al is insistent on running that offense he seems to want to, it's imperative that you're able to run the ball... Does he view our inability to do so as a bi-product of bad O-line play? A product of Jordan's talent? A combination of both?...

If Art's still the coach, I'd make book that he'll push to draft the dominant RB for a few reasons:

1) Art the player grew up with RB driven offenses...

For the all the reputation 'Coryell type' offenses have for being high flying passing attacks, the nut of the offense seems to revolve around the RB (Chuck Muncie, Marshall Faulk, Priest, Larry Johnson, Tomlinson, every RB Joe Gibbs lines up)... During Art's playing career, Stabler was made alot more effective because he had 4 solid backs on the roster in Van Eeghan, Clarence Davis, Banasak and Hubbard in which to pound the ball...


2) Art seems to worry alot about history repeating itself

During Art's first tenure, he had the Bo/Marcus duo to lean on the first year... After Bo went down and Allen went in the doghouse, he was forced to run out a different feature back EVERY season after that... The past his prime Roger Craig, followed by the past his prime Eric Dickerson, then Greg Robinson, then Harvey Williams.... How often do you think Art sat around thinking what if Bo never got hurt?...


3) Pressure to win

Art has to know that despite his friendship with mark Davis and despite any assurances he's been given, history indicates Al's threshold for a losing coach is two years... Even the 'most ready collegiate QB' usually doesn't hit the ground running on all cylinders... RB's are basically plug and play... Match that with the signing of a FA QB who in theory has already gone through the process of getting acclimated to the NFL, and you have a coach more confident in his ability to produce quicker wins....


If we had a Charlie Weis coach that runs a QB driven offense, the possibility of a push for Quinn would be more likely... As it is, it looks like it's Art's show....


A) We'll end up signing Chris Simms because he throws maybe the sweetest long ball in the league... Just as he did at Tejas, the general idea will surround him with a workhorse running back and have him work the ball to the TE's with the occasional deep ball off play action... The assurances of Gannon working with Simms during the offseason will sway Pops Simms...

B) We'll draft Adrian Peterson in the two spot because he's the type of back that actually gets stronger at the 20- 25 carry mark... He's also the decisive one cut and go type back that fits into Art's preferred blocking scheme...

C) To the chagrin of many who want a lineman or TE, at the top of RD2 we'll draft either Johnnie Lee Higgins or Buster Davis to provide the deep speed Al wants... They'll both run the kind of sick 40 times that the Raiders love...

There, I saved you all time by mapping things out... You may now argue about what to do with the 3rd round pick... :cool:

[Byron2112]

To me, a game manager type -- just someone who plays smart -- can be found at QB well after the first round. But a special RB can't be. So if it's between Peterson and Quinn, I want Peterson every time.

That's intersting... something I've never really thought about, but pretty much every really elite back I can recall, especially the ones with sustained success, have been a first round picks... most of them very highly taken in the first round.

Something else I have taken note of is that the quarerback situation has turned in the league really starting with Warner. Before that time the vast majority of teams that played in the SuperBowl had QB's taken in the first round, most very highly in the first round. In the last half dozen years or so that trend has really fallen off with the Brady's, Gannon's, Warner's, Delohme's and Johnson's of the league.

I dunno why that is, if it's just outta neccesity becasue of expansion or whatever, but something has definatly changed...

[BigPoppaPump]

Unless you have a Tom Brady talent at QB (i.e. HoF level), you will not win without a stud RB. Look at the last 14 Champs. Only one team really won without a stud RB or HoF QB.

Pitt (Parker and Bettis was money)
NE x 3 (Brady and even then they needed a stud RB the last time)
Baltimore (crazy D and Lewis was a beast that year)
St. Louis (hello Faulk)
Denver x2 (TD was on pace for the Hall)
Green Bay (Levens was solid, but Farve might be one of the top 5 ever)
Dallas x3 (Emmitt)
SF (Young is in the Hall)

The only team that does not have this apply is Tampa, but their D was lights out.

But imo, you can make do much easier with a decent QB and stud RB than a decent RB and stud QB. An above average RB can make an average QB look good. To make an average RB look good, you need a HoF level QB imo.

In other words, it is much easier to find a RB that will work than a QB.

HBoy is also spot on imo in how he sees it. RB's are plug and play. I doubt Shell has the time to develop a rook QB.

P.S. If we draft WR, I will puke. I would rather go OL than WR.

[Madturk]

A) We'll end up signing Chris Simms because he throws maybe the sweetest long ball in the league... Just as he did at Tejas, the general idea will surround him with a workhorse running back and have him work the ball to the TE's with the occasional deep ball off play action... The assurances of Gannon working with Simms during the offseason will sway Pops Simms...



I would be very happy with that scenario. Listening to Tampa Sportstalk this am, it's pretty much a lock that Simms will be gone after the season. A lot of the Bucs success last season can be attributed to Simms and their defense. Only problem I see that he will be a pretty hot commodity based on the pretty dismal crop of FA QB's.

Another scenario would be to maybe work a deal with the Bears, maybe Porter and another pick for Griese. I know Griese doesn't have the arm that Al espouses but neither did Gannon.

[Banter]

The team sniffed at several QBs last off-season and Griese, who was available, wasn't one of them. So I doubt he's even on the radar screen.

[Jack's sore libido]

That's intersting... something I've never really thought about, but pretty much every really elite back I can recall, especially the ones with sustained success, have been a first round picks... most of them very highly taken in the first round.

Something else I have taken note of is that the quarerback situation has turned in the league really starting with Warner. Before that time the vast majority of teams that played in the SuperBowl had QB's taken in the first round, most very highly in the first round. In the last half dozen years or so that trend has really fallen off with the Brady's, Gannon's, Warner's, Delohme's and Johnson's of the league.

I dunno why that is, if it's just outta neccesity becasue of expansion or whatever, but something has definatly changed...

I think a lot of it has to do with the pressure to win NOW due to overexposure via media, and salary cap.

QB is the most complex position in the league to learn, but there's all this urgency to get the highest-paid guy in NOW, particularly top-10 picks, because those teams are typically sucking so the fans and owners want a change, and the QB is the savior.

You can't groom a guy for three years like the Raiders did with Stabler. And in today's NFL, Terry Bradshaw would never have made it past Year 4 with the Steelers.

[CrossBones]

Jack...this has always been Al Davids' way of doing it so it's nothing new. But fans always want a "franchise QB"...

You and a lot of others are likely right about this. I have been on the RB bandwagon but every time I see Giggles adn Walter paly QB on Sunday I get frustrated and I want a better one. I want a star. Time isn't on Al's side either. And frankly I don't see him changing his MO at age 78...

We'll hopefully take the RB who as I have mentioned I think can be more productive than a WR at this point in time. We'll see how this shakes out.

Simms I fear is going to have to overcome the "I don't want to go to the Oakland mess" but all things are possible I guess.

[Madturk]

always want a "franchise QB"...

You and a lot of others are likely right about this. I have been on the RB bandwagon but every time I see Giggles adn Walter paly QB on Sunday I get frustrated and I want a better one. I want a star. Time isn't on Al's side either. And frankly I don't see him changing his MO at age 78...



I don't either. I guess we can hope for another Rich Gannon resurrection. That was a nice 4 year run. Unfortunatley, we don't have the tools in place to groom a young QB and as long as Shell is in charge, his history with QB's has been less than stellar, i.e. Hoss, Marinovich etc.

Simms is a nice option IMO if we can get this OL and running game starightened out. He's a big kid with a good arm. Not extremely mobile but can run when he has to. I think the big sell will be bringing in the right offensive staffers.

[Banter]

Pretty sad but if I was in Quinn's shoes I'd much rather start my career off with Mike Martz then whatever OC Art Shell digs out of the restaurant sector. I'd understand if Quinn decides to pull an Eli Manning on us.

[Madturk]

Pretty sad but if I was in Quinn's shoes I'd much rather start my career off with Mike Martz then whatever OC Art Shell digs out of the restaurant sector. I'd understand if Quinn decides to pull an Eli Manning on us.

Much ado about nothing. Quinn won't be a Raider.

[BigTron]

I hope Quinn pulls that crap. Then we can get three pro-bowlers for him like the Dolts did for Eli.

[Ghost To The Post]

Also Tron, I think it reveals a vast amount about that particular players character and how they will comport themselves as the media focual point for an NFL franchise.

[Rupert]

I hope Quinn pulls that crap. Then we can get three pro-bowlers for him like the Dolts did for Eli.
The Giants are tired of Eli already? :eek:

[BigTron]

Yeha that looks really bad right now for the G-women. Eli for Pro-Bowl . Rivers, Merriman and Kaeding. yikes. I think strahans gap just got wider.

[Banter]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2707239

Instead, the Bucs are close to a two-year agreement with Simms that will virtually guarantee him $5 million in 2007 with a chance to earn another $1.5 million in playtime incentives, sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen.

Counting all incentives and an escalator clause, Simms could earn about $10 million during the two years, with $7 million of that in base salary and a signing bonus.

[RaiderIVlife]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2707239

Am I the only dude that isn't at all impressed with Chris Simms?

DISCLAIMER: I can't predict a good QB to save my life so if I'm thinking "whatever", this guy is probably our future savior....:eek:

[BigTron]

This guy is a bum. he was a huge bum at Texas and a huge bum in the NFL. His passer rating is lower than my breathalizer results.

[hawaiianboy]

Brady Quinn = the lightning rod of this draft


Seems people either really love him or really hate him...

I've decided he's neither as good as the Quinn fanboys portray him to be, nor as bad as his distractors deem him...


Deep stuff, I know...

[Seraph24]

Lightning rod qb's arent of much use w/o rushing and blocking though. Exhibit A.
Shoulder sprain ends season for Cards' Leinart
Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO -- Matt Leinart sprained his left shoulder late in the first half of the Arizona Cardinals' game against San Francisco on Sunday, ending the quarterback's strong rookie season one game early.

Matt Leinart
Leinart

Leinart was hurt when Roderick Green sacked him on third down during a drive that ended in Neil Rackers' 39-yard field goal with 1:57 left in the second quarter. Leinart went to the locker room after the hit, and returned to the sideline in street clothes as Kurt Warner finished off the Cardinals' 26-20 victory.

Though the injury apparently isn't serious, Arizona coach Dennis Green said Leinart will be shelved for the season finale at San Diego next Sunday. Leinart won't need surgery, but is scheduled for an MRI exam Wednesday.

"It hurts pretty good, but it's nothing serious, so that's a good thing," said Leinart, who was told such injuries require about four weeks to heal. "Nothing popped, nothing tore. There were no noises. I just fell on it hard."

Leinart, the 2004 Heisman Trophy winner from USC, was outstanding against the 49ers, going 9-for-13 for 162 yards with a touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald as Arizona took a 20-3 lead.

Leinart has passed for 2,547 yards and 11 TDs this season despite sitting out most of the Cardinals' first four games. Arizona won four of its last six games under Leinart, but is out of playoff contention after an eight-game losing streak early in the season.

Warner, who lost his job to Leinart in October, passed for 105 conservative yards in the second half as Arizona barely held on.

"When you come in with a situation where somebody is doing well, you just don't want to mess up what's going on," Warner said. "It was really about managing the game at that point."

Copyright 2006 by The Associated Press

[007]

This guy is a bum. he was a huge bum at Texas and a huge bum in the NFL. His passer rating is lower than my breathalizer results.

Chris Simms is Tampa Bays 'Andrew Walter'...

Big hopes, but the guy has done dick all. Mediocre stats, mediocre results and the guy will be 27 next year, having done nothing in this league but look worse than Griese, Gradkowski and Rattay.

I don't know where the man love came from. Major Applewhite was a better QB for the damn Longhorns.

He's got a big arm though...:rolleyes:

[Limee]

I've decided he's neither as good as the Quinn fanboys portray him to be, nor as bad as his distractors deem him...


Deep stuff, I know...
Teach me more sensei. :D

I really don't mind if we decide to draft Quinn. This team needs something positive to get things going. I believe Quinn could be that guy as he seems to have that x-factor. I am not convinced that he is going to be an all-pro QB though. Is that on the fence enough?

[BigTron]

We need a sure proven leader at QB. Or a blue chip prospect. I dotn wanna invest ina Chris Simms type. Carr however can move in the pocket and has a nice arm.

[Madturk]

Chris Simms is Tampa Bays 'Andrew Walter'...

Big hopes, but the guy has done dick all. Mediocre stats, mediocre results and the guy will be 27 next year, having done nothing in this league but look worse than Griese, Gradkowski and Rattay.

I don't know where the man love came from. Major Applewhite was a better QB for the damn Longhorns.

He's got a big arm though...:rolleyes:

Simms was a big reason the Bucs made the playoffs last season so you can't say he hasn't done dick his whole career. I think the Bucs main problem is the lack of big talent on the offensive side of the ball. Michael Clayton has been basically a no show after a promising rookie season, same with Cadillac. Couple that with a mediocre OL and you really don't have much to work with.

[massraider]

I read somewhere recently that Quinn plans on playing in the Senior Bowl. Very smart.

[Crow]

Am I the only dude that isn't at all impressed with Chris Simms?

Didn't like him at Texas. Don't like him now.

[CrossBones]

Didn't like him at Texas. Don't like him now.Problem solved: Simms signs two year extension (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9893082/rss)!

[hawaiianboy]

Simms dad is saying that Son of Phil will now be traded to the Cowboys... How does that make any sense?... Why would he forego free agency and a chance to be a starter to go and back up Tony Romo?....


With that, I'll now amend my prediction... either a released David Carr or a released Jake Plummer will be our QB next year ::praying Denver trades Plummer somewhere:: :D

[Banter]

Simms dad is saying that Son of Phil will now be traded to the Cowboys... How does that make any sense?... Why would he forego free agency and a chance to be a starter to go and back up Tony Romo?

The only thing that makes sense is they duped him into signing a contract by telling him they wanted him back but they really were only interested in extending him for trade purposes.

I've read the Skins might shop Betts.

What a shitty thing to do a player. The guy forgoes free agency to sign a below market contract to stay and then gets traded. Thats fucked up if it happens.

Teams have excess cap space. So this is like buying say a 3rd round draft pick for $3 million dollars.

[jatfly]

Is drafting a QB riskier then going into the season with Just Walter, Since we all feel Tui and Brooks will be gone?

[Seraph24]

Is drafting a QB riskier then going into the season with Just Walter, Since we all feel Tui and Brooks will be gone?
hard to say if the replacement also gets sacked 46 times in about 12 games of work(with some of them not being a full game for extra wonder of how we give up sacks).

[Madturk]

Simms dad is saying that Son of Phil will now be traded to the Cowboys... How does that make any sense?... Why would he forego free agency and a chance to be a starter to go and back up Tony Romo?....



I heard on Tampa Sportstalk that his wife wanted to stay put in Tampa. I don't know how much validity that had but none of this makes sense.

[BigTron]

Our starting Qb next year..... T.O.